IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Wichita St.
American Athletic
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+9.3	#54
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.9	#240
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.6	#71

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+5.7	#43

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
#1 Seed	1.1%	1.3%	0.1%
Top 2 Seed	2.7%	3.1%	0.2%
Top 4 Seed	7.2%	8.1%	0.9%
Top 6 Seed	12.9%	14.5%	2.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	38.1%	41.7%	13.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	31.4%	34.7%	10.6%
Average Seed	7.8	7.7	9.3

.500 or above	81.0%	85.3%	52.1%
.500 or above in Conference	70.1%	73.7%	46.1%
Conference Champion	11.1%	12.2%	3.3%
Last Place in Conference	2.7%	2.0%	7.5%

First Four	4.7%	5.0%	2.5%
First Round	35.7%	39.2%	12.2%
Second Round	20.3%	22.5%	5.8%
Sweet Sixteen	8.7%	9.7%	1.9%
Elite Eight	3.8%	4.3%	0.7%
Final Four	1.6%	1.8%	0.3%
Championship Game	0.7%	0.8%	0.1%
National Champion	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Home) - 87.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 3	1 - 3
Quad 1b	1 - 2	2 - 6
Quad 2	4 - 3	6 - 9
Quad 3	6 - 2	12 - 11
Quad 4	7 - 0	20 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	164	Jacksonville St.	W	74-62	87%
Nov 13, 2021	214	South Alabama	W	77-62	92%
Nov 16, 2021	185	Tarleton St.	W	72-59	87%
Nov 19, 2021	31	Arizona	L	68-71	40%
Nov 26, 2021	84	@ Missouri	L	69-70	49%
Dec 01, 2021	35	@ Oklahoma St.	L	70-76	32%
Dec 05, 2021	89	Kansas St.	W	68-62	70%
Dec 11, 2021	291	Norfolk St.	W	77-58	94%
Dec 14, 2021	347	Alcorn St.	W	84-57	99%
Dec 18, 2021	123	North Texas	W	68-59	77%
Dec 22, 2021	232	Prairie View	W	77-61	90%
Dec 29, 2021	183	@ East Carolina	W	72-65	72%
Jan 01, 2022	11	Memphis	L	70-73	40%
Jan 08, 2022	13	@ Houston	L	60-69	25%
Jan 12, 2022	136	Tulane	W	73-63	79%
Jan 16, 2022	90	Cincinnati	W	74-68	69%
Jan 19, 2022	120	@ Temple	W	70-67	59%
Jan 23, 2022	62	@ SMU	L	71-73	42%
Jan 26, 2022	68	Central Florida	W	70-66	63%
Jan 29, 2022	136	@ Tulane	W	70-66	62%
Feb 01, 2022	108	Tulsa	W	70-62	73%
Feb 05, 2022	62	SMU	W	74-70	61%
Feb 08, 2022	68	@ Central Florida	L	67-69	44%
Feb 12, 2022	177	South Florida	W	73-60	84%
Feb 17, 2022	90	@ Cincinnati	W	72-71	51%
Feb 20, 2022	13	Houston	L	63-66	41%
Feb 27, 2022	11	@ Memphis	L	67-76	24%
Mar 02, 2022	108	@ Tulsa	W	67-65	56%
Mar 05, 2022	183	East Carolina	W	75-62	85%
Projected Record						18 - 11	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.7	2.1	3.2	2.9	1.6	0.5		11.1	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	2.0	4.2	4.3	2.1	0.4				13.4	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.0	0.7	3.2	5.4	3.8	1.0	0.1					14.3	3rd
4th									0.1	0.9	3.9	5.5	2.8	0.5	0.0						13.7	4th
5th								0.1	1.0	3.8	4.8	2.1	0.2	0.0							12.0	5th
6th							0.1	1.1	3.6	4.0	1.4	0.1	0.0								10.3	6th
7th					0.0	0.1	0.9	3.3	3.2	1.1	0.1										8.7	7th
8th				0.0	0.1	1.0	2.6	2.4	0.7	0.1											6.9	8th
9th				0.1	0.8	1.8	1.6	0.5	0.0												4.9	9th
10th		0.0	0.2	0.7	1.2	0.8	0.2	0.0													3.2	10th
11th	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.0	0.0														1.4	11th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.3	2.5	3.7	5.4	7.4	8.7	9.9	10.9	11.3	10.6	9.3	7.4	5.4	3.3	1.6	0.5			Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.5		0.5
17-1	100.0%	1.6		1.5	0.1
16-2	88.6%	2.9		2.3	0.6	0.0
15-3	59.4%	3.2		1.8	1.2	0.2	0.0
14-4	27.9%	2.1		0.8	1.0	0.3	0.0
13-5	7.5%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	1.0%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0					0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	11.1%	11.1		7.0	3.2	0.7	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.5%		100.0%	60.0%	40.0%	1.7		0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0													100.0%
17-1	1.6%		100.0%	51.1%	48.9%	2.6		0.5	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0										100.0%
16-2	3.3%		99.3%	37.9%	61.4%	3.9		0.3	0.5	0.7	0.7	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		98.9%
15-3	5.4%		97.2%	30.3%	66.8%	5.6		0.1	0.3	0.6	0.9	0.9	0.8	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.2		95.9%
14-4	7.4%		90.3%	21.4%	68.9%	7.2		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.8	0.9	1.0	0.9	0.8	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.0				0.7		87.6%
13-5	9.3%		76.8%	15.2%	61.6%	8.6			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.8	1.1	1.3	1.2	1.0	0.5	0.0				2.1		72.7%
12-6	10.6%		58.1%	10.0%	48.1%	9.7				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	1.1	1.3	1.4	0.8	0.1	0.0			4.4		53.5%
11-7	11.3%		36.6%	6.3%	30.3%	10.4					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.9	1.2	0.9	0.1	0.0			7.2		32.3%
10-8	10.9%		19.5%	4.6%	14.9%	10.9							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.7	0.1	0.0			8.8		15.6%
9-9	9.9%		9.3%	3.0%	6.3%	11.3							0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.0			8.9		6.4%
8-10	8.7%		2.7%	1.4%	1.3%	12.1									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0		8.5		1.3%
7-11	7.4%		0.9%	0.7%	0.2%	12.8												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.3		0.2%
6-12	5.4%		0.4%	0.4%		14.0													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.3
5-13	3.7%		0.2%	0.2%		15.6																0.0	0.0	3.7
4-14	2.5%		0.2%	0.2%		14.5															0.0	0.0		2.5
3-15	1.3%																							1.3
2-16	0.6%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	0.6
1-17	0.2%																							0.2
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		38.1%	9.8%	28.3%	7.8		1.1	1.6	2.0	2.5	2.7	3.0	3.1	3.6	4.3	4.8	5.2	3.5	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	61.9		31.4%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	1.3	70.2	26.4	3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	1.6	64.1	20.7	7.6	7.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	1.5	52.7	47.3