Colgate
Patriot League
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.1#99
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#140
Pace73.3#83
Improvement+0.1#175

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#37
First Shot+6.5#23
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#219
Layup/Dunks+1.5#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.4#17
Freethrows-0.1#190
Improvement+0.2#151

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#199
First Shot-0.6#199
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#186
Layups/Dunks+0.3#180
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#347
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#48
Freethrows-1.2#257
Improvement-0.1#200
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.3% 38.3% 31.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.7
.500 or above 96.1% 97.3% 89.4%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.1% 98.4%
Conference Champion 47.6% 48.6% 41.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.9%
First Round37.1% 38.1% 31.3%
Second Round7.2% 7.7% 4.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 2.3% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Home) - 85.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 33 - 5
Quad 35 - 47 - 8
Quad 415 - 222 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 149   Northeastern W 65-58 74%     1 - 0 +5.4 -2.9 +8.5
  Nov 13, 2021 65   @ North Carolina St. L 74-77 30%     1 - 1 +7.6 +13.0 -5.8
  Nov 16, 2021 217   @ Cornell L 68-78 68%     1 - 2 -9.6 -10.9 +2.2
  Nov 20, 2021 78   @ Syracuse W 100-85 33%     2 - 2 +24.7 +24.0 +0.1
  Nov 24, 2021 136   @ Harvard L 84-89 OT 49%     2 - 3 +0.4 +2.5 -1.4
  Nov 29, 2021 224   Niagara W 77-66 85%    
  Dec 03, 2021 149   @ Northeastern W 70-69 52%    
  Dec 06, 2021 323   Columbia W 87-69 95%    
  Dec 09, 2021 213   @ Pittsburgh W 75-71 66%    
  Dec 12, 2021 62   @ St. John's L 80-86 31%    
  Dec 19, 2021 134   @ Monmouth L 79-80 49%    
  Dec 22, 2021 107   @ Vermont L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 01, 2022 304   @ Lafayette W 82-72 81%    
  Jan 04, 2022 295   @ Lehigh W 81-71 81%    
  Jan 07, 2022 320   American W 84-67 94%    
  Jan 10, 2022 219   Army W 81-70 83%    
  Jan 13, 2022 105   @ Navy L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 16, 2022 343   Holy Cross W 87-66 97%    
  Jan 19, 2022 298   @ Bucknell W 87-77 81%    
  Jan 22, 2022 304   Lafayette W 85-69 92%    
  Jan 24, 2022 302   Loyola Maryland W 81-65 92%    
  Jan 29, 2022 130   @ Boston University L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 02, 2022 298   Bucknell W 90-74 92%    
  Feb 05, 2022 320   @ American W 81-70 83%    
  Feb 09, 2022 295   Lehigh W 84-68 91%    
  Feb 12, 2022 302   @ Loyola Maryland W 78-68 81%    
  Feb 16, 2022 219   @ Army W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 19, 2022 130   Boston University W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 23, 2022 343   @ Holy Cross W 84-69 90%    
  Feb 26, 2022 105   Navy W 74-70 62%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 5.2 11.3 14.7 11.1 4.1 47.6 1st
2nd 0.4 2.2 6.0 9.5 6.9 1.8 26.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 2.5 4.8 5.2 2.5 0.2 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.2 1.4 0.4 6.2 4th
5th 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.8 3.1 5.3 8.6 12.8 17.3 18.4 16.5 11.1 4.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.1    4.1
17-1 100.0% 11.1    10.7 0.5
16-2 89.1% 14.7    11.3 3.3 0.1
15-3 61.1% 11.3    6.3 4.4 0.6
14-4 30.1% 5.2    1.9 2.6 0.7 0.0
13-5 8.8% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1
12-6 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 47.6% 47.6 34.5 11.2 1.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.1% 71.3% 67.8% 3.4% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.2 10.7%
17-1 11.1% 58.0% 56.0% 2.0% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.4 2.0 0.7 0.0 4.7 4.5%
16-2 16.5% 51.1% 50.9% 0.2% 12.9 0.0 0.2 2.5 3.4 1.8 0.4 8.1 0.5%
15-3 18.4% 39.6% 39.6% 13.4 0.0 1.1 2.9 2.6 0.6 0.0 11.1
14-4 17.3% 32.3% 32.3% 13.8 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.4 1.1 0.1 11.7
13-5 12.8% 27.1% 27.1% 14.2 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.2 0.2 9.3
12-6 8.6% 19.9% 19.9% 14.7 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.2 6.9
11-7 5.3% 17.7% 17.7% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 4.4
10-8 3.1% 11.2% 11.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.8
9-9 1.8% 8.9% 8.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.6
8-10 0.6% 9.5% 9.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6
7-11 0.3% 11.1% 11.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 37.3% 36.9% 0.4% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.8 7.0 11.3 9.7 4.9 1.0 62.7 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 5.6 6.3 25.0 28.1 18.8 6.3 6.3 3.1 6.3