Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#149
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#150
Pace65.9#265
Improvement+0.7#113

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#275
First Shot-1.1#210
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#302
Layup/Dunks-1.1#213
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#202
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#225
Freethrows+2.4#51
Improvement-0.2#203

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#57
First Shot+4.0#64
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#128
Layups/Dunks-4.4#302
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#111
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#16
Freethrows+0.4#168
Improvement+0.9#85
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.4% 18.6% 13.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 72.7% 78.2% 54.9%
.500 or above in Conference 84.1% 86.1% 77.5%
Conference Champion 22.5% 24.3% 16.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.7% 0.8%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 1.0%
First Round17.1% 18.3% 13.1%
Second Round1.8% 2.1% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Home) - 76.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 38 - 78 - 12
Quad 410 - 218 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 99   @ Colgate L 58-65 26%     0 - 1 +1.1 -12.6 +13.5
  Nov 12, 2021 145   @ Georgia St. L 64-83 37%     0 - 2 -14.1 -3.9 -11.6
  Nov 16, 2021 130   Boston University W 49-48 57%     1 - 2 +0.5 -17.7 +18.3
  Nov 19, 2021 193   Duquesne W 71-55 61%     2 - 2 +14.6 +1.4 +13.9
  Nov 21, 2021 158   Southern Illinois W 59-47 53%     3 - 2 +12.6 -8.9 +22.2
  Nov 22, 2021 41   Colorado St. L 61-71 20%     3 - 3 +0.2 -7.5 +7.2
  Nov 27, 2021 136   @ Harvard L 57-77 35%     3 - 4 -14.6 -13.0 -1.4
  Nov 30, 2021 225   Detroit Mercy W 72-64 76%    
  Dec 03, 2021 99   Colgate L 69-70 48%    
  Dec 07, 2021 119   Massachusetts W 74-73 54%    
  Dec 12, 2021 83   Davidson L 63-65 44%    
  Dec 19, 2021 107   Vermont W 61-60 49%    
  Dec 22, 2021 38   St. Bonaventure L 59-65 27%    
  Dec 29, 2021 265   @ Elon W 68-64 65%    
  Dec 31, 2021 338   @ William & Mary W 70-60 82%    
  Jan 03, 2022 206   College of Charleston W 76-70 72%    
  Jan 05, 2022 279   UNC Wilmington W 68-57 84%    
  Jan 09, 2022 164   @ Towson L 62-64 44%    
  Jan 11, 2022 165   @ James Madison L 66-68 45%    
  Jan 15, 2022 167   Drexel W 65-61 65%    
  Jan 17, 2022 160   Delaware W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 22, 2022 137   Hofstra W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 27, 2022 279   @ UNC Wilmington W 65-60 67%    
  Jan 29, 2022 206   @ College of Charleston W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 03, 2022 165   James Madison W 69-65 66%    
  Feb 05, 2022 164   Towson W 65-61 65%    
  Feb 10, 2022 160   @ Delaware L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 12, 2022 167   @ Drexel L 62-64 44%    
  Feb 19, 2022 137   @ Hofstra L 66-70 36%    
  Feb 24, 2022 338   William & Mary W 73-57 92%    
  Feb 26, 2022 265   Elon W 71-61 81%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 4.3 6.7 5.5 3.3 1.2 0.2 22.5 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 6.2 6.2 3.2 0.8 0.1 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 6.8 5.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 5.3 4.9 1.1 0.1 12.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.2 4.3 0.9 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 3.0 3.3 0.8 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.4 0.7 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.4 2.6 4.3 7.0 9.7 12.3 14.7 14.1 12.1 10.1 6.3 3.4 1.2 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
16-2 97.6% 3.3    3.1 0.2
15-3 87.2% 5.5    4.4 1.1 0.0
14-4 66.5% 6.7    3.7 2.6 0.4 0.0
13-5 35.3% 4.3    1.4 2.1 0.7 0.1
12-6 8.3% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.5% 22.5 14.1 6.5 1.5 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 68.2% 63.6% 4.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12.5%
17-1 1.2% 45.8% 44.2% 1.7% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 3.0%
16-2 3.4% 38.4% 38.1% 0.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.1 0.5%
15-3 6.3% 34.8% 34.8% 13.3 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.2 4.1
14-4 10.1% 31.1% 31.1% 13.7 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.4 7.0
13-5 12.1% 25.4% 25.4% 14.0 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.8 0.0 9.0
12-6 14.1% 16.5% 16.5% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.1 11.8
11-7 14.7% 14.9% 14.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.3 12.5
10-8 12.3% 9.7% 9.7% 15.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 11.1
9-9 9.7% 6.7% 6.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 9.0
8-10 7.0% 5.3% 5.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.7
7-11 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 4.1
6-12 2.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.5
5-13 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.4% 17.3% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 4.0 6.0 4.7 1.5 82.6 0.0%