Monmouth
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#134
Expected Predictive Rating+11.2#56
Pace75.5#51
Improvement+3.3#12

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#120
First Shot+3.2#86
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#267
Layup/Dunks-0.1#169
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#129
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#204
Freethrows+3.5#24
Improvement+1.6#38

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#148
First Shot-1.0#207
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#83
Layups/Dunks+1.1#147
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#144
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#220
Freethrows-1.9#284
Improvement+1.7#37
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.8% 29.2% 20.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.9% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.1 12.9 13.5
.500 or above 95.2% 97.8% 91.4%
.500 or above in Conference 93.1% 96.7% 87.8%
Conference Champion 33.4% 41.5% 21.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.9%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round25.7% 29.0% 20.8%
Second Round3.5% 4.2% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Away) - 59.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 22 - 3
Quad 36 - 59 - 7
Quad 414 - 323 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 198   @ Charlotte L 66-68 55%     0 - 1 -0.8 -4.1 +3.3
  Nov 13, 2021 164   @ Towson W 79-71 48%     1 - 1 +11.0 +1.4 +8.9
  Nov 16, 2021 295   Lehigh W 85-75 88%     2 - 1 -0.5 +2.9 -4.0
  Nov 20, 2021 218   @ Saint Joseph's W 87-75 58%     3 - 1 +12.4 +8.8 +3.0
  Nov 24, 2021 146   Princeton W 76-64 65%     4 - 1 +10.6 +4.0 +7.2
  Nov 27, 2021 57   @ Cincinnati W 61-59 20%     5 - 1 +13.3 +3.0 +10.5
  Dec 03, 2021 224   @ Niagara W 71-69 59%    
  Dec 05, 2021 260   @ Canisius W 79-74 67%    
  Dec 09, 2021 62   @ St. John's L 77-85 22%    
  Dec 12, 2021 213   @ Pittsburgh W 72-70 57%    
  Dec 14, 2021 113   @ Yale L 72-76 34%    
  Dec 19, 2021 99   Colgate W 80-79 51%    
  Dec 22, 2021 137   Hofstra W 79-76 60%    
  Dec 31, 2021 248   Marist W 76-66 82%    
  Jan 07, 2022 293   Siena W 78-65 87%    
  Jan 09, 2022 111   Iona W 73-72 55%    
  Jan 14, 2022 199   @ St. Peter's W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 16, 2022 248   @ Marist W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 20, 2022 222   @ Fairfield W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 23, 2022 251   Manhattan W 75-65 82%    
  Jan 28, 2022 260   Canisius W 82-71 83%    
  Jan 30, 2022 224   Niagara W 74-66 77%    
  Feb 04, 2022 222   Fairfield W 74-66 76%    
  Feb 06, 2022 276   @ Quinnipiac W 81-75 69%    
  Feb 11, 2022 251   @ Manhattan W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 13, 2022 111   @ Iona L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 18, 2022 273   Rider W 79-67 85%    
  Feb 25, 2022 199   St. Peter's W 74-67 74%    
  Feb 27, 2022 293   @ Siena W 75-68 72%    
  Mar 03, 2022 276   Quinnipiac W 84-72 85%    
  Mar 05, 2022 273   @ Rider W 76-70 68%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.4 5.5 7.9 7.9 5.6 2.8 0.8 33.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.2 8.0 7.2 4.3 1.4 0.2 26.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 3.9 5.7 3.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.7 3.2 3.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.5 0.8 0.1 5.4 5th
6th 0.2 1.3 1.6 0.6 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.2 4.5 7.5 9.4 12.2 14.6 13.8 12.3 9.4 5.8 2.8 0.8 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
19-1 100.0% 2.8    2.7 0.1
18-2 95.9% 5.6    5.2 0.4
17-3 84.5% 7.9    6.5 1.4 0.0
16-4 64.2% 7.9    5.1 2.7 0.2
15-5 39.6% 5.5    2.6 2.2 0.6 0.1
14-6 16.5% 2.4    0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.8% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 33.4% 33.4 23.5 8.1 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.8% 74.4% 57.7% 16.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 39.4%
19-1 2.8% 59.1% 53.8% 5.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 11.6%
18-2 5.8% 47.2% 45.8% 1.4% 12.3 0.1 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.1 2.5%
17-3 9.4% 42.3% 41.9% 0.4% 12.7 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.4 0.7%
16-4 12.3% 36.1% 35.9% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.1 1.1 0.1 7.9 0.3%
15-5 13.8% 28.6% 28.6% 13.4 0.5 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 9.9
14-6 14.6% 23.2% 23.2% 13.6 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.5 0.0 11.2
13-7 12.2% 17.5% 17.5% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 10.1
12-8 9.4% 15.7% 15.7% 14.4 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.0 7.9
11-9 7.5% 12.0% 12.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 6.6
10-10 4.5% 8.0% 8.0% 15.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.2
9-11 3.2% 4.1% 4.1% 15.3 0.1 0.0 3.1
8-12 1.9% 2.7% 2.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 1.8
7-13 1.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 0.3% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 25.8% 25.4% 0.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 5.4 8.3 6.9 3.0 0.3 74.2 0.6%