Cincinnati
American Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.3#57
Expected Predictive Rating+6.5#88
Pace69.1#188
Improvement+0.2#166

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#121
First Shot-1.0#204
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#49
Layup/Dunks+2.8#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#220
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#287
Freethrows+1.0#117
Improvement-0.5#246

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#31
First Shot+4.7#49
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#67
Layups/Dunks-0.8#223
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#69
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#74
Freethrows+0.8#146
Improvement+0.6#113
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 0.9% 1.3% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 2.8% 3.8% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.9% 33.5% 18.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 22.9% 28.1% 14.6%
Average Seed 9.5 9.3 9.9
.500 or above 93.9% 96.8% 89.2%
.500 or above in Conference 78.9% 82.3% 73.2%
Conference Champion 6.1% 7.3% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.7% 1.2%
First Four6.2% 6.9% 4.9%
First Round24.7% 30.1% 15.9%
Second Round11.2% 14.0% 6.5%
Sweet Sixteen3.3% 4.4% 1.5%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.3% 0.5%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (OH) (Away) - 62.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 6
Quad 23 - 25 - 8
Quad 36 - 311 - 11
Quad 410 - 121 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 252   Evansville W 65-43 93%     1 - 0 +14.1 -9.2 +24.0
  Nov 13, 2021 154   Georgia W 73-68 84%     2 - 0 +2.8 -0.8 +3.7
  Nov 16, 2021 344   Alabama A&M W 89-66 98%     3 - 0 +7.0 +7.3 -1.3
  Nov 18, 2021 281   Presbyterian W 79-45 94%     4 - 0 +24.4 +5.4 +19.7
  Nov 22, 2021 33   Illinois W 71-51 37%     5 - 0 +31.8 +7.7 +25.3
  Nov 23, 2021 25   Arkansas L 67-73 31%     5 - 1 +7.4 -3.1 +10.8
  Nov 27, 2021 134   Monmouth L 59-61 80%     5 - 2 -2.6 -8.2 +5.4
  Dec 01, 2021 141   @ Miami (OH) W 70-67 62%    
  Dec 05, 2021 229   Bryant W 83-68 92%    
  Dec 11, 2021 40   @ Xavier L 65-70 31%    
  Dec 14, 2021 306   Florida A&M W 75-56 97%    
  Dec 18, 2021 201   Texas Southern W 75-62 89%    
  Dec 21, 2021 262   Tennessee Tech W 78-61 94%    
  Dec 28, 2021 7   @ Houston L 58-70 14%    
  Jan 01, 2022 162   Tulane W 71-60 84%    
  Jan 06, 2022 94   SMU W 74-68 71%    
  Jan 09, 2022 22   @ Memphis L 66-74 22%    
  Jan 12, 2022 177   East Carolina W 75-63 85%    
  Jan 16, 2022 58   @ Wichita St. L 63-66 39%    
  Jan 20, 2022 135   Tulsa W 70-61 78%    
  Jan 25, 2022 151   @ Temple W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 30, 2022 177   @ East Carolina W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 03, 2022 22   Memphis L 69-71 41%    
  Feb 06, 2022 7   Houston L 61-67 29%    
  Feb 09, 2022 207   @ South Florida W 61-54 75%    
  Feb 12, 2022 135   @ Tulsa W 67-64 60%    
  Feb 17, 2022 58   Wichita St. W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 20, 2022 151   Temple W 73-63 81%    
  Feb 23, 2022 66   @ Central Florida L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 26, 2022 207   South Florida W 64-51 88%    
  Mar 03, 2022 94   @ SMU L 70-71 50%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 6.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.4 4.9 4.3 1.5 0.2 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.9 7.5 4.4 1.1 0.1 20.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 6.1 7.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 18.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 5.3 6.2 2.1 0.2 15.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.3 4.0 1.2 0.1 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.6 0.8 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.8 0.6 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.3 2.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.6 5.8 9.0 11.8 15.0 16.1 13.1 10.3 6.9 3.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.0
16-2 88.0% 1.3    1.0 0.4 0.0
15-3 58.0% 2.2    1.0 1.1 0.1
14-4 22.6% 1.6    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 5.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 3.0 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.5% 96.7% 24.7% 72.0% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.6%
15-3 3.8% 94.7% 22.1% 72.6% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 93.2%
14-4 6.9% 79.9% 16.7% 63.2% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.1 1.4 75.9%
13-5 10.3% 61.0% 10.8% 50.2% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 2.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.0 56.3%
12-6 13.1% 38.6% 6.7% 32.0% 10.5 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 0.8 0.0 8.0 34.2%
11-7 16.1% 20.1% 5.5% 14.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.9 0.1 12.9 15.5%
10-8 15.0% 10.1% 3.6% 6.5% 11.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 13.5 6.7%
9-9 11.8% 5.2% 3.2% 2.0% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 11.2 2.1%
8-10 9.0% 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.9 0.2%
7-11 5.8% 1.2% 1.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7
6-12 3.6% 0.3% 0.3% 14.0 0.0 3.6
5-13 1.8% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 1.8
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 27.9% 6.5% 21.4% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 2.0 2.5 3.9 5.9 7.4 3.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 72.2 22.9%