South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#168
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#161
Pace73.3#72
Improvement-0.6#362

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#159
First Shot+3.1#92
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#316
Layup/Dunks+0.4#160
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#169
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#172
Freethrows+2.3#54
Improvement-0.2#292

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#188
First Shot+0.9#149
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#276
Layups/Dunks+0.2#179
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#282
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#257
Freethrows+3.8#19
Improvement-0.4#353
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.4% 17.7% 12.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.8
.500 or above 68.8% 75.3% 50.3%
.500 or above in Conference 91.2% 92.4% 87.8%
Conference Champion 19.6% 21.0% 15.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.6% 1.2%
First Four1.8% 1.5% 2.7%
First Round15.6% 17.1% 11.6%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Home) - 74.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 32 - 34 - 9
Quad 412 - 516 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 142   @ Akron L 80-81 OT 31%     0 - 1 +4.0 +5.0 -1.0
  Nov 09, 2022 52   @ Boise St. W 68-66 13%     1 - 1 +14.4 +2.6 +11.7
  Nov 15, 2022 120   St. Bonaventure W 66-62 38%     2 - 1 +7.2 -10.6 +17.4
  Nov 16, 2022 16   @ Arkansas L 56-71 5%     2 - 2 +3.4 -12.0 +17.2
  Nov 19, 2022 195   Stephen F. Austin L 82-93 67%     2 - 3 -15.6 +1.0 -16.0
  Nov 25, 2022 277   Valparaiso W 61-50 72%     3 - 3 +5.0 -8.9 +14.8
  Nov 26, 2022 55   James Madison L 60-79 19%     3 - 4 -9.9 -8.6 -1.0
  Dec 02, 2022 48   @ Kent St. L 68-83 11%     3 - 5 -2.0 +6.3 -8.8
  Dec 03, 2022 8   @ Alabama L 65-78 4%     3 - 6 +6.7 +3.0 +3.6
  Dec 06, 2022 186   @ Montana L 56-81 43%     3 - 7 -23.3 -12.5 -12.4
  Dec 10, 2022 242   Eastern Washington W 78-71 74%    
  Dec 19, 2022 89   @ Oral Roberts L 76-85 21%    
  Dec 21, 2022 275   @ UMKC W 70-67 60%    
  Dec 29, 2022 290   Western Illinois W 82-72 82%    
  Dec 31, 2022 282   St. Thomas W 79-70 80%    
  Jan 05, 2023 273   @ North Dakota St. W 76-73 59%    
  Jan 07, 2023 310   @ North Dakota W 76-71 70%    
  Jan 14, 2023 247   @ South Dakota W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 19, 2023 288   Nebraska Omaha W 81-71 81%    
  Jan 21, 2023 281   Denver W 81-72 80%    
  Jan 26, 2023 282   @ St. Thomas W 76-73 61%    
  Jan 28, 2023 290   @ Western Illinois W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 02, 2023 310   North Dakota W 79-68 85%    
  Feb 04, 2023 273   North Dakota St. W 79-70 78%    
  Feb 11, 2023 247   South Dakota W 77-70 74%    
  Feb 16, 2023 281   @ Denver W 78-75 61%    
  Feb 18, 2023 288   @ Nebraska Omaha W 78-74 62%    
  Feb 23, 2023 275   UMKC W 73-64 79%    
  Feb 25, 2023 89   Oral Roberts L 79-82 41%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 5.0 5.4 3.8 1.5 0.3 19.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.7 10.0 11.0 7.9 3.1 0.5 38.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.2 7.0 4.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 18.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.0 0.1 3.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.4 7.5 11.0 14.1 15.9 15.1 13.0 8.5 4.3 1.5 0.3 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.1
16-2 87.7% 3.8    3.0 0.8
15-3 63.3% 5.4    3.5 1.8 0.0
14-4 38.2% 5.0    2.7 2.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 17.9% 2.7    1.0 1.3 0.3 0.0
12-6 4.9% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.6% 19.6 12.2 6.5 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 64.7% 55.3% 9.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 20.9%
17-1 1.5% 46.0% 45.7% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.5%
16-2 4.3% 36.2% 36.2% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 2.8
15-3 8.5% 29.4% 29.4% 13.6 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.2 6.0
14-4 13.0% 24.3% 24.3% 13.9 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.6 0.0 9.8
13-5 15.1% 18.5% 18.5% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.2 0.1 12.3
12-6 15.9% 14.5% 14.5% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.3 13.6
11-7 14.1% 10.6% 10.6% 15.5 0.0 0.7 0.8 12.6
10-8 11.0% 8.5% 8.5% 15.9 0.1 0.9 10.0
9-9 7.5% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5 7.1
8-10 4.4% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.2 4.3
7-11 2.4% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.1 2.3
6-12 1.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 1.1
5-13 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.4% 16.4% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.2 5.2 4.3 2.8 83.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 67.7% 11.5 0.8 1.6 4.7 26.0 25.2 8.7 0.8