Pre-tourney Rankings
American Athletic
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Houston 100.0%   1   31 - 3 17 - 1 32 - 3 17 - 1 +19.1      +9.0 12 +10.1 5 60.6 343 +19.8 2 +21.8 1
22 Memphis 100.0%   6   26 - 8 13 - 5 27 - 8 13 - 5 +13.1      +6.8 26 +6.2 33 77.1 18 +14.1 19 +11.6 2
52 Cincinnati 0.7%   20 - 12 11 - 7 20 - 12 11 - 7 +9.6      +5.2 52 +4.4 62 70.3 122 +7.4 74 +8.5 4
63 Central Florida 0.0%   18 - 14 8 - 10 18 - 14 8 - 10 +8.6      +3.3 92 +5.3 47 63.0 313 +5.4 99 +3.3 7
97 Tulane 0.0%   20 - 11 12 - 6 20 - 11 12 - 6 +4.8      +4.0 77 +0.8 145 80.1 3 +6.6 83 +10.2 3
99 Wichita St. 0.0%   17 - 15 9 - 9 17 - 15 9 - 9 +4.8      +1.2 146 +3.6 76 66.1 231 +3.6 117 +4.9 6
112 Temple 0.0%   16 - 16 10 - 8 16 - 16 10 - 8 +3.8      +1.5 136 +2.3 101 65.9 237 +4.2 110 +7.2 5
148 South Florida 0.0%   14 - 18 7 - 11 14 - 18 7 - 11 +1.3      +0.3 162 +1.0 141 70.0 131 -0.9 184 +1.5 8
169 SMU 0.0%   10 - 22 5 - 13 10 - 22 5 - 13 -0.3      -1.2 212 +1.0 142 72.2 70 -1.6 195 -1.4 10
173 East Carolina 0.0%   16 - 17 6 - 12 16 - 17 6 - 12 -0.3      -0.7 197 +0.4 160 68.5 166 +0.8 154 -0.1 9
297 Tulsa 0.0%   5 - 25 1 - 17 5 - 25 1 - 17 -7.2      -3.6 282 -3.6 285 69.2 151 -8.7 317 -11.6 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Houston 1.0 100.0
Memphis 2.0 100.0
Cincinnati 4.0 100.0
Central Florida 7.0 100.0
Tulane 3.0 100.0
Wichita St. 6.0 100.0
Temple 5.0 100.0
South Florida 8.0 100.0
SMU 10.0 100.0
East Carolina 9.0 100.0
Tulsa 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Houston 17 - 1 100.0
Memphis 13 - 5 100.0
Cincinnati 11 - 7 100.0
Central Florida 8 - 10 100.0
Tulane 12 - 6 100.0
Wichita St. 9 - 9 100.0
Temple 10 - 8 100.0
South Florida 7 - 11 100.0
SMU 5 - 13 100.0
East Carolina 6 - 12 100.0
Tulsa 1 - 17 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 100.0% 100.0
Memphis
Cincinnati
Central Florida
Tulane
Wichita St.
Temple
South Florida
SMU
East Carolina
Tulsa


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1   77.2 22.2 0.6 0.0 100.0%
Memphis 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 6   0.0 0.4 4.2 19.0 38.0 29.8 7.6 1.0 0.0
Cincinnati 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3 0.4 0.0 99.3 0.7%
Central Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Wichita St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Temple 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
SMU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tulsa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Houston 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.8% 75.3% 54.0% 35.5% 21.9% 13.1%
Memphis 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 60.9% 26.9% 11.5% 4.7% 1.8% 0.7%
Cincinnati 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SMU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.0 99.2 0.8
1st Round 100.0% 2.0 99.6 0.4
2nd Round 99.1% 1.6 0.9 39.5 59.5 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 82.3% 1.0 17.7 62.4 19.9 0.0
Elite Eight 59.9% 0.7 40.1 54.2 5.7
Final Four 38.9% 0.4 61.1 37.6 1.3
Final Game 23.5% 0.2 76.5 23.3 0.2
Champion 13.7% 0.1 86.3 13.7