Pre-tourney Rankings
Mountain West
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
20 San Diego St. 100.0%   4   26 - 6 15 - 3 27 - 6 15 - 3 +13.2      +4.6 62 +8.5 12 65.7 244 +15.5 12 +16.1 1
28 Utah St. 97.5%   8   25 - 8 13 - 5 26 - 8 13 - 5 +12.4      +8.5 14 +3.9 71 71.1 102 +12.2 29 +12.0 3
38 Boise St. 96.9%   8   23 - 9 13 - 5 24 - 9 13 - 5 +11.1      +3.4 89 +7.7 20 66.2 225 +11.7 34 +12.7 2
56 Nevada 59.3%   11   21 - 10 12 - 6 22 - 10 12 - 6 +9.1      +4.2 69 +4.9 56 65.6 250 +10.1 49 +11.2 4
57 New Mexico 11.7%   21 - 11 8 - 10 21 - 11 8 - 10 +9.1      +7.3 21 +1.8 112 77.1 19 +8.4 64 +4.6 6
91 UNLV 0.0%   18 - 13 7 - 11 18 - 13 7 - 11 +5.6      +1.7 126 +4.0 69 72.7 59 +6.3 86 +4.1 7
96 San Jose St. 0.2%   19 - 13 10 - 8 19 - 13 10 - 8 +4.8      +3.6 84 +1.2 134 59.4 351 +7.5 73 +8.3 5
105 Colorado St. 0.0%   14 - 18 6 - 12 14 - 18 6 - 12 +4.4      +4.7 60 -0.3 185 65.9 239 +3.3 123 +2.2 9
132 Fresno St. 0.0%   10 - 20 6 - 12 10 - 20 6 - 12 +2.0      -1.4 226 +3.5 79 61.8 331 0.0 170 +2.3 8
150 Wyoming 0.0%   8 - 22 4 - 14 8 - 22 4 - 14 +1.2      +2.0 115 -0.8 199 64.8 272 -2.1 206 -0.4 11
152 Air Force 0.0%   14 - 18 5 - 13 14 - 18 5 - 13 +1.1      +0.4 161 +0.7 148 60.5 345 -0.2 172 +1.3 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
San Diego St. 1.0 100.0
Utah St. 2.0 100.0
Boise St. 2.0 100.0
Nevada 4.0 100.0
New Mexico 6.0 100.0
UNLV 7.0 100.0
San Jose St. 5.0 100.0
Colorado St. 8.0 100.0
Fresno St. 8.0 100.0
Wyoming 11.0 100.0
Air Force 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
San Diego St. 15 - 3 100.0
Utah St. 13 - 5 100.0
Boise St. 13 - 5 100.0
Nevada 12 - 6 100.0
New Mexico 8 - 10 100.0
UNLV 7 - 11 100.0
San Jose St. 10 - 8 100.0
Colorado St. 6 - 12 100.0
Fresno St. 6 - 12 100.0
Wyoming 4 - 14 100.0
Air Force 5 - 13 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 100.0% 100.0
Utah St.
Boise St.
Nevada
New Mexico
UNLV
San Jose St.
Colorado St.
Fresno St.
Wyoming
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 4   0.2 2.8 30.3 48.3 16.2 2.2 0.1 0.0
Utah St. 97.5% 0.0% 97.5% 8   0.0 0.3 2.8 14.0 26.6 30.0 18.6 4.9 0.4 2.5 97.5%
Boise St. 96.9% 0.0% 96.9% 8   0.3 3.0 14.1 35.1 33.1 10.5 0.9 3.1 96.9%
Nevada 59.3% 0.0% 59.3% 11   0.0 0.0 1.6 8.2 22.3 26.6 0.5 40.7 59.3%
New Mexico 11.7% 0.0% 11.7% 0.0 7.1 4.6 0.0 88.3 11.7%
UNLV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.2%
Colorado St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
San Diego St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 76.8% 41.9% 16.5% 6.8% 2.6% 1.0%
Utah St. 97.5% 0.0% 97.5% 52.5% 17.9% 7.9% 2.9% 1.1% 0.3%
Boise St. 96.9% 0.1% 96.8% 46.6% 12.5% 5.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
Nevada 59.3% 12.8% 52.4% 19.9% 5.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
New Mexico 11.7% 11.5% 5.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.7 0.0 1.6 37.0 55.5 5.9 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 3.5 0.0 2.1 45.7 49.7 2.5
2nd Round 95.7% 2.0 4.3 24.9 43.3 23.9 3.6 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 61.1% 0.8 38.9 45.4 14.1 1.5 0.1
Elite Eight 28.5% 0.3 71.5 25.8 2.6 0.1 0.0
Final Four 11.6% 0.1 88.4 11.2 0.3
Final Game 4.3% 0.0 95.7 4.3 0.0
Champion 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6