Pre-tourney Rankings
Penn St.
Big Ten
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.8#40
Expected Predictive Rating+11.7#35
Pace62.8#315
Improvement+0.9#100

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#18
First Shot+9.8#4
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#290
Layup/Dunks-2.3#278
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#27
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.6#1
Freethrows-1.5#303
Improvement+1.5#41

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#98
First Shot+1.1#133
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#55
Layups/Dunks+2.5#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#355
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#211
Freethrows+2.5#24
Improvement-0.7#265
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.2% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.6% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.6% n/a n/a
Average Seed 8.6 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round97.6% n/a n/a
Second Round45.2% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen11.5% n/a n/a
Elite Eight4.8% n/a n/a
Final Four1.6% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.5% n/a n/a
National Champion0.1% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 37 - 7
Quad 25 - 512 - 12
Quad 34 - 116 - 13
Quad 46 - 022 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 244   Winthrop W 93-68 94%     1 - 0 +17.7 +11.4 +6.1
  Nov 10, 2022 325   Loyola Maryland W 90-65 97%     2 - 0 +12.8 +17.7 -3.0
  Nov 14, 2022 102   Butler W 68-62 81%     3 - 0 +7.6 -0.2 +7.8
  Nov 17, 2022 90   Furman W 73-68 68%     4 - 0 +10.8 +6.2 +5.1
  Nov 18, 2022 74   Virginia Tech L 59-61 62%     4 - 1 +5.7 -6.3 +11.8
  Nov 20, 2022 105   Colorado St. W 68-56 73%     5 - 1 +16.4 -2.5 +19.4
  Nov 25, 2022 269   Lafayette W 70-57 95%     6 - 1 +4.3 +5.7 +0.3
  Nov 29, 2022 50   @ Clemson L 94-101 2OT 43%     6 - 2 +5.6 +11.9 -5.2
  Dec 07, 2022 31   Michigan St. L 58-67 57%     6 - 3 0 - 1 -0.1 -8.4 +8.1
  Dec 10, 2022 30   @ Illinois W 74-59 34%     7 - 3 1 - 1 +30.2 +16.5 +15.1
  Dec 18, 2022 249   Canisius W 97-67 95%     8 - 3 +22.2 +22.0 +0.8
  Dec 22, 2022 187   Quinnipiac W 77-68 91%     9 - 3 +5.1 +2.4 +2.6
  Dec 29, 2022 359   Delaware St. W 60-46 99%     10 - 3 -3.8 -16.3 +13.5
  Jan 01, 2023 34   Iowa W 83-79 59%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +12.6 +9.3 +3.3
  Jan 04, 2023 44   @ Michigan L 69-79 40%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +3.5 +6.7 -3.8
  Jan 08, 2023 7   Purdue L 63-76 38%     11 - 5 2 - 3 +0.8 +3.9 -4.8
  Jan 11, 2023 24   Indiana W 85-66 54%     12 - 5 3 - 3 +28.8 +22.6 +7.5
  Jan 17, 2023 61   @ Wisconsin L 60-63 46%     12 - 6 3 - 4 +8.8 +6.0 +2.3
  Jan 21, 2023 89   Nebraska W 76-65 77%     13 - 6 4 - 4 +14.0 +9.7 +4.8
  Jan 24, 2023 35   @ Rutgers L 45-65 37%     13 - 7 4 - 5 -5.7 -9.8 +1.4
  Jan 29, 2023 44   Michigan W 83-61 62%     14 - 7 5 - 5 +29.6 +21.7 +10.0
  Feb 01, 2023 7   @ Purdue L 60-80 20%     14 - 8 5 - 6 -0.2 +6.4 -10.3
  Feb 05, 2023 89   @ Nebraska L 63-72 57%     14 - 9 5 - 7 +0.0 +4.2 -5.3
  Feb 08, 2023 61   Wisconsin L 74-79 OT 68%     14 - 10 5 - 8 +0.9 +9.5 -8.8
  Feb 11, 2023 25   @ Maryland L 68-74 32%     14 - 11 5 - 9 +9.7 +9.1 +0.0
  Feb 14, 2023 30   Illinois W 93-81 56%     15 - 11 6 - 9 +21.2 +24.3 -3.2
  Feb 18, 2023 183   @ Minnesota W 76-69 79%     16 - 11 7 - 9 +9.1 +12.1 -2.3
  Feb 23, 2023 46   @ Ohio St. W 75-71 40%     17 - 11 8 - 9 +17.3 +25.5 -7.2
  Feb 26, 2023 35   Rutgers L 56-59 59%     17 - 12 8 - 10 +5.4 +1.3 +3.6
  Mar 01, 2023 43   @ Northwestern W 68-65 OT 39%     18 - 12 9 - 10 +16.6 +12.5 +4.5
  Mar 05, 2023 25   Maryland W 65-64 54%     19 - 12 10 - 10 +10.7 +5.0 +5.8
  Mar 09, 2023 30   Illinois W 79-76 45%     20 - 12 +15.2 +15.4 -0.1
  Mar 10, 2023 43   Northwestern W 67-65 OT 51%     21 - 12 +12.7 +2.6 +10.1
  Mar 11, 2023 24   Indiana W 77-73 43%     22 - 12 +16.7 +11.2 +5.6
  Mar 12, 2023 7   Purdue L 65-67 28%     22 - 13 +14.8 +4.3 +10.3
  Mar 16, 2023 27   Texas A&M L 68-70 43%    
Projected Record 22 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 100.0 100.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 100.0% 97.6% 97.6% 8.6 0.0 0.2 5.4 37.5 43.9 10.3 0.3 2.4 97.6%
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.6% 0.0% 97.6% 8.6 0.0 0.2 5.4 37.5 43.9 10.3 0.3 2.4 97.6%