Pre-tourney Rankings
St. Mary's
West Coast
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.2#15
Expected Predictive Rating+13.3#23
Pace58.4#358
Improvement-2.3#339

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#55
First Shot+2.5#103
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#20
Layup/Dunks+5.9#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#348
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#196
Freethrows+0.3#157
Improvement+0.1#169

Defense
Total Defense+9.1#9
First Shot+7.4#13
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#38
Layups/Dunks+0.0#182
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#212
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.4#1
Freethrows+0.1#173
Improvement-2.4#352
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.1% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.7% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 39.5% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 91.9% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.2% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.2% n/a n/a
Average Seed 4.9 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round99.2% n/a n/a
Second Round72.1% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen40.1% n/a n/a
Elite Eight16.9% n/a n/a
Final Four7.7% n/a n/a
Championship Game3.3% n/a n/a
National Champion1.3% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 02 - 3
Quad 27 - 29 - 5
Quad 311 - 220 - 7
Quad 45 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 68   Oral Roberts W 78-70 80%     1 - 0 +13.4 +5.7 +7.7
  Nov 10, 2022 120   Vermont W 79-53 90%     2 - 0 +26.0 +13.0 +15.6
  Nov 13, 2022 65   North Texas W 63-33 79%     3 - 0 +35.5 +11.2 +32.3
  Nov 16, 2022 291   Southern W 72-54 98%     4 - 0 +8.3 +4.4 +5.6
  Nov 19, 2022 93   Hofstra W 76-48 86%     5 - 0 +30.3 +3.0 +27.0
  Nov 23, 2022 79   Vanderbilt W 75-65 74%     6 - 0 +17.4 +0.5 +16.6
  Nov 24, 2022 100   Washington L 64-68 OT 81%     6 - 1 +0.8 -8.7 +9.7
  Nov 30, 2022 57   New Mexico L 65-69 78%     6 - 2 +2.1 -6.3 +8.3
  Dec 03, 2022 2   Houston L 48-53 32%     6 - 3 +14.1 -2.7 +15.6
  Dec 07, 2022 151   Missouri St. W 66-46 92%     7 - 3 +18.2 +2.5 +18.6
  Dec 10, 2022 20   San Diego St. W 68-61 54%     8 - 3 +20.2 +9.0 +11.7
  Dec 14, 2022 184   New Mexico St. W 81-68 94%     9 - 3 +9.2 +9.0 +0.7
  Dec 18, 2022 105   Colorado St. L 60-62 88%     9 - 4 -0.6 -1.3 +0.3
  Dec 21, 2022 150   Wyoming W 66-54 88%     10 - 4 +13.2 +1.9 +13.0
  Dec 29, 2022 221   San Diego W 85-58 96%     11 - 4 1 - 0 +21.1 +8.7 +13.8
  Dec 31, 2022 85   @ Santa Clara W 67-64 66%     12 - 4 2 - 0 +12.8 +7.4 +5.8
  Jan 07, 2023 155   Portland W 85-43 93%     13 - 4 3 - 0 +39.9 +13.6 +29.3
  Jan 12, 2023 111   Loyola Marymount W 76-62 89%     14 - 4 4 - 0 +15.0 +10.9 +5.6
  Jan 14, 2023 94   @ San Francisco W 78-61 72%     15 - 4 5 - 0 +25.1 +13.4 +12.9
  Jan 19, 2023 185   @ Pepperdine W 73-44 87%     16 - 4 6 - 0 +31.1 +3.1 +29.0
  Jan 21, 2023 85   Santa Clara W 77-58 83%     17 - 4 7 - 0 +22.9 +19.2 +7.1
  Jan 28, 2023 77   @ BYU W 57-56 64%     18 - 4 8 - 0 +11.6 +2.1 +9.7
  Feb 02, 2023 94   San Francisco W 68-59 87%     19 - 4 9 - 0 +11.2 +3.7 +8.6
  Feb 04, 2023 8   Gonzaga W 78-70 OT 51%     20 - 4 10 - 0 +21.8 +7.5 +14.3
  Feb 09, 2023 111   @ Loyola Marymount L 74-78 OT 76%     20 - 5 10 - 1 +2.9 +3.5 -0.5
  Feb 11, 2023 155   @ Portland W 81-64 83%     21 - 5 11 - 1 +20.8 +20.5 +3.3
  Feb 16, 2023 221   @ San Diego W 62-59 90%     22 - 5 12 - 1 +3.1 -8.7 +12.1
  Feb 18, 2023 77   BYU W 71-65 82%     23 - 5 13 - 1 +10.7 +11.0 +0.4
  Feb 23, 2023 178   Pacific W 83-52 94%     24 - 5 14 - 1 +27.4 +7.4 +20.5
  Feb 25, 2023 8   @ Gonzaga L 68-77 30%     24 - 6 14 - 2 +10.7 +9.3 +0.3
  Mar 06, 2023 77   BYU W 76-69 73%     25 - 6 +14.6 +16.6 -1.2
  Mar 07, 2023 8   Gonzaga L 51-77 40%     25 - 7 -9.2 -11.8 -0.6
  Mar 17, 2023 60   Virginia Commonwealth W 63-58 69%    
Projected Record 26 - 7 14 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 100.0    100.0
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 99.2% 99.2% 4.9 0.1 0.6 7.8 31.1 32.4 19.9 6.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.8 99.2%
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 99.2% 0.0% 99.2% 4.9 0.1 0.6 7.8 31.1 32.4 19.9 6.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.8 99.2%