Pre-tourney Rankings
UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#108
Expected Predictive Rating+6.3#87
Pace63.4#301
Improvement+0.3#160

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#78
First Shot+4.9#49
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#251
Layup/Dunks+5.4#19
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#35
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#313
Freethrows+0.6#126
Improvement+2.9#10

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#171
First Shot-1.7#232
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#28
Layups/Dunks-2.8#290
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#114
Freethrows+0.1#172
Improvement-2.6#358
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 13.6 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round14.4% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen3.2% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.4% n/a n/a
Final Four0.1% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 23 - 13 - 1
Quad 39 - 512 - 6
Quad 413 - 125 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 132   Fresno St. W 61-54 58%     1 - 0 +9.0 -1.1 +11.0
  Nov 18, 2022 224   @ Northern Arizona L 54-63 65%     1 - 1 -9.0 -20.0 +10.6
  Nov 21, 2022 349   Hampton W 79-66 95%     2 - 1 -2.4 -0.8 -1.3
  Nov 23, 2022 258   North Alabama W 89-71 87%     3 - 1 +9.8 +11.9 -1.7
  Nov 29, 2022 121   @ Duquesne L 61-72 43%     3 - 2 -5.2 -4.4 -1.8
  Dec 03, 2022 178   Pacific W 82-71 77%     4 - 2 +7.4 +8.3 -0.5
  Dec 10, 2022 185   @ Pepperdine W 67-64 OT 58%     5 - 2 +5.1 -12.5 +17.3
  Dec 17, 2022 245   @ Portland St. W 85-73 71%     6 - 2 +10.4 +4.9 +4.7
  Dec 21, 2022 180   Appalachian St. W 61-50 68%     7 - 2 +10.3 -4.2 +15.4
  Dec 29, 2022 127   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 66-58 46%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +13.2 +5.9 +8.4
  Dec 31, 2022 253   UC San Diego W 82-61 87%     9 - 2 2 - 0 +13.0 +12.5 +2.5
  Jan 07, 2023 278   @ Cal Poly W 62-57 76%     10 - 2 3 - 0 +1.7 -1.8 +4.1
  Jan 11, 2023 287   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 60-48 77%     11 - 2 4 - 0 +8.5 +1.1 +9.8
  Jan 14, 2023 146   UC Riverside L 64-65 71%     11 - 3 4 - 1 -2.6 -6.6 +4.0
  Jan 16, 2023 104   @ UC Irvine W 73-65 37%     12 - 3 5 - 1 +15.5 +8.8 +7.1
  Jan 19, 2023 321   Cal St. Northridge W 72-52 93%     13 - 3 6 - 1 +8.0 +7.6 +3.9
  Jan 21, 2023 287   Cal St. Bakersfield W 76-58 89%     14 - 3 7 - 1 +8.5 +8.4 +1.7
  Jan 26, 2023 130   @ Hawaii W 65-64 46%     15 - 3 8 - 1 +6.0 +4.3 +1.8
  Feb 02, 2023 278   Cal Poly W 68-62 89%     16 - 3 9 - 1 -3.3 +9.5 -11.4
  Feb 04, 2023 321   @ Cal St. Northridge L 67-72 83%     16 - 4 9 - 2 -11.1 +0.6 -12.3
  Feb 09, 2023 162   @ Long Beach St. W 75-72 54%     17 - 4 10 - 2 +6.1 +4.3 +1.9
  Feb 11, 2023 160   UC Davis W 84-74 74%     18 - 4 11 - 2 +7.3 +8.7 -1.6
  Feb 15, 2023 104   UC Irvine L 59-70 60%     18 - 5 11 - 3 -9.5 -1.8 -9.7
  Feb 18, 2023 146   @ UC Riverside L 63-74 49%     18 - 6 11 - 4 -6.6 +1.1 -9.4
  Feb 20, 2023 127   Cal St. Fullerton L 60-74 68%     18 - 7 11 - 5 -14.7 -3.4 -13.2
  Feb 23, 2023 162   Long Beach St. W 78-73 75%     19 - 7 12 - 5 +2.2 +2.9 -0.7
  Feb 25, 2023 253   @ UC San Diego W 87-71 72%     20 - 7 13 - 5 +13.9 +19.6 -4.4
  Mar 02, 2023 160   @ UC Davis W 89-86 53%     21 - 7 14 - 5 +6.2 +11.6 -5.6
  Mar 04, 2023 130   Hawaii W 81-61 69%     22 - 7 15 - 5 +19.1 +22.8 -0.8
  Mar 09, 2023 278   Cal Poly W 64-54 83%     23 - 7 +3.7 -1.9 +6.6
  Mar 10, 2023 146   UC Riverside W 92-87 60%     24 - 7 +6.4 +22.0 -15.5
  Mar 11, 2023 127   Cal St. Fullerton W 72-62 57%     25 - 7 +12.3 +4.2 +8.3
  Mar 17, 2023 14   Baylor L 69-79 17%    
Projected Record 25 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 13.6 1.5 46.6 44.8 7.1
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 13.6 1.5 46.6 44.8 7.1