Pre-tourney Rankings
Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.0#60
Expected Predictive Rating+9.8#51
Pace69.8#134
Improvement+3.6#5

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#145
First Shot+2.0#113
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#242
Layup/Dunks+4.4#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#312
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#284
Freethrows+2.6#21
Improvement+3.0#7

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#18
First Shot+6.7#23
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#78
Layups/Dunks-1.2#232
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#1
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#53
Freethrows+1.2#84
Improvement+0.5#114
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 12.0 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round33.5% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen12.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight3.0% n/a n/a
Final Four0.8% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.2% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 24 - 34 - 4
Quad 313 - 117 - 5
Quad 410 - 227 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 304   Manhattan W 73-56 95%     1 - 0 +6.4 -7.1 +12.8
  Nov 12, 2022 322   Morgan St. W 69-54 96%     2 - 0 +2.8 -10.9 +12.9
  Nov 16, 2022 66   Arizona St. L 59-63 52%     2 - 1 +4.5 -5.3 +9.7
  Nov 17, 2022 67   Pittsburgh W 71-67 52%     3 - 1 +12.4 -3.3 +15.5
  Nov 20, 2022 22   @ Memphis L 47-62 25%     3 - 2 +1.1 -17.1 +17.9
  Nov 26, 2022 131   Kennesaw St. W 64-61 82%     4 - 2 +2.1 -4.8 +7.0
  Nov 30, 2022 79   Vanderbilt W 70-65 67%     5 - 2 +9.4 -3.0 +12.5
  Dec 03, 2022 112   @ Temple L 73-83 58%     5 - 3 -3.2 +3.9 -7.0
  Dec 07, 2022 230   Jacksonville L 62-73 92%     5 - 4 -17.4 -9.0 -9.0
  Dec 11, 2022 228   Howard W 70-60 91%     6 - 4 +3.9 -7.2 +11.0
  Dec 14, 2022 186   Radford W 70-62 88%     7 - 4 +4.1 -6.3 +10.2
  Dec 17, 2022 248   Northern Illinois W 90-63 93%     8 - 4 +19.4 +5.2 +11.5
  Dec 21, 2022 191   Navy W 74-52 88%     9 - 4 +18.0 +8.5 +12.1
  Dec 31, 2022 218   La Salle W 80-67 90%     10 - 4 1 - 0 +7.6 -1.0 +7.8
  Jan 04, 2023 121   @ Duquesne L 70-79 62%     10 - 5 1 - 1 -3.2 -0.7 -2.5
  Jan 07, 2023 124   Davidson W 89-72 82%     11 - 5 2 - 1 +16.3 +14.4 +1.8
  Jan 10, 2023 238   @ Loyola Chicago W 78-64 82%     12 - 5 3 - 1 +13.1 +9.1 +4.8
  Jan 13, 2023 78   @ Dayton W 63-62 44%     13 - 5 4 - 1 +11.4 -0.7 +12.2
  Jan 17, 2023 195   Massachusetts W 83-55 89%     14 - 5 5 - 1 +23.8 +8.2 +15.1
  Jan 20, 2023 147   @ Richmond W 74-62 68%     15 - 5 6 - 1 +16.3 +3.1 +12.9
  Jan 25, 2023 141   George Mason W 72-52 83%     16 - 5 7 - 1 +18.6 +4.6 +15.2
  Jan 28, 2023 182   St. Bonaventure L 58-61 88%     16 - 6 7 - 2 -6.8 -8.5 +1.4
  Jan 31, 2023 124   @ Davidson W 61-59 64%     17 - 6 8 - 2 +7.3 +0.5 +7.1
  Feb 03, 2023 92   @ Saint Louis W 73-65 52%     18 - 6 9 - 2 +16.4 +5.0 +11.7
  Feb 07, 2023 78   Dayton L 58-62 67%     18 - 7 9 - 3 +0.5 -6.1 +6.2
  Feb 15, 2023 239   @ Rhode Island W 55-54 82%     19 - 7 10 - 3 +0.1 -7.2 +7.5
  Feb 18, 2023 128   Fordham W 80-61 82%     20 - 7 11 - 3 +18.2 +4.7 +12.4
  Feb 21, 2023 171   @ Saint Joseph's W 88-63 73%     21 - 7 12 - 3 +27.6 +17.7 +10.3
  Feb 24, 2023 147   Richmond W 73-58 84%     22 - 7 13 - 3 +13.3 +9.7 +5.5
  Feb 28, 2023 92   Saint Louis W 79-67 73%     23 - 7 14 - 3 +14.5 -2.1 +15.4
  Mar 04, 2023 207   @ George Washington W 74-68 77%     24 - 7 15 - 3 +7.1 +2.7 +4.8
  Mar 09, 2023 124   Davidson W 71-53 74%     25 - 7 +20.3 +5.2 +16.8
  Mar 11, 2023 92   Saint Louis W 90-78 63%     26 - 7 +17.5 +13.7 +3.2
  Mar 12, 2023 78   Dayton W 68-56 56%     27 - 7 +19.5 +15.0 +7.2
  Mar 17, 2023 15   St. Mary's L 58-63 31%    
Projected Record 27 - 8 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 12.0 0.0 0.2 11.4 77.1 11.3 0.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 0.2 11.4 77.1 11.3 0.0