Preseason Rankings
Big South
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
152 Longwood 26.7%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 13 - 5 +0.9      +1.3 149 -0.4 183 65.6 254 0.0 1 0.0 1
174 Winthrop 21.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 6 -0.3      +0.5 171 -0.8 196 70.7 104 0.0 1 0.0 1
211 UNC Asheville 16.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 -1.7      +0.8 162 -2.6 253 67.1 211 0.0 1 0.0 1
237 Gardner-Webb 11.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -3.2      -4.2 296 +1.0 142 68.7 161 0.0 1 0.0 1
255 High Point 8.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 10 - 8 -4.6      -2.9 260 -1.7 231 66.8 219 0.0 1 0.0 1
256 Campbell 7.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 -4.7      -3.6 283 -1.2 207 59.1 351 0.0 1 0.0 1
293 Radford 3.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -7.9      -5.3 317 -2.6 255 62.8 324 0.0 1 0.0 1
310 Presbyterian 2.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -9.0      -5.2 316 -3.8 291 62.2 337 0.0 1 0.0 1
335 Charleston Southern 1.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 19 6 - 12 -11.4      -6.0 327 -5.4 322 72.3 70 0.0 1 0.0 1
345 South Carolina Upstate 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 21 5 - 13 -13.0      -6.8 340 -6.2 336 70.8 101 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Longwood 2.9 34.0 20.6 14.7 10.6 7.6 5.5 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.4
Winthrop 3.3 27.1 19.8 15.1 11.9 9.0 6.8 4.8 3.1 1.7 0.7
UNC Asheville 3.8 19.8 17.1 15.2 13.4 11.1 8.6 6.6 4.4 2.6 1.2
Gardner-Webb 4.3 13.8 14.4 14.1 13.9 12.3 10.5 8.6 6.2 4.1 2.0
High Point 4.9 9.7 11.6 12.4 13.2 12.9 12.2 10.4 8.5 5.9 3.2
Campbell 4.9 9.0 11.4 12.4 13.0 12.6 12.2 11.0 8.7 6.0 3.5
Radford 6.2 3.5 5.8 7.7 9.7 11.4 12.9 14.1 14.0 12.2 8.7
Presbyterian 6.6 2.6 4.3 6.1 8.2 10.0 12.3 14.2 15.5 15.1 11.8
Charleston Southern 7.5 1.1 2.2 3.5 5.3 7.2 9.7 13.0 16.4 20.6 20.9
South Carolina Upstate 8.0 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.5 5.4 7.6 11.0 15.7 22.2 30.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Longwood 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.8 4.3 5.9 7.7 9.5 11.0 12.2 12.2 11.7 9.5 6.4 2.8
Winthrop 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.8 3.9 5.7 7.2 8.8 10.1 11.3 11.6 11.2 10.3 7.6 4.6 1.7
UNC Asheville 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.9 5.4 7.4 8.6 10.2 10.7 11.4 10.6 9.5 7.5 5.4 2.8 1.0
Gardner-Webb 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.8 5.5 6.9 9.0 9.9 10.8 10.9 10.1 9.5 7.6 5.4 3.6 1.7 0.5
High Point 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.3 3.6 5.5 7.2 8.5 10.0 10.6 10.7 10.0 8.9 7.7 5.8 3.8 2.2 1.1 0.3
Campbell 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.4 3.9 5.6 7.4 8.8 10.0 10.7 10.5 10.0 9.0 7.3 5.6 3.8 2.1 0.9 0.3
Radford 8 - 10 0.5 1.7 3.6 5.7 8.0 9.5 10.4 10.9 10.8 9.7 8.5 6.9 5.4 3.8 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1
Presbyterian 7 - 11 0.9 2.6 5.0 7.4 9.2 10.5 11.3 11.2 10.0 8.6 7.4 5.7 4.1 2.8 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Charleston Southern 6 - 12 2.3 5.5 8.6 11.1 12.1 11.9 11.1 9.8 8.3 6.3 5.0 3.2 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Carolina Upstate 5 - 13 4.2 8.6 11.9 13.1 13.0 11.7 10.3 8.4 6.1 4.7 3.2 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Longwood 34.0% 24.9 7.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Winthrop 27.1% 19.1 6.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
UNC Asheville 19.8% 13.2 5.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Gardner-Webb 13.8% 8.9 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
High Point 9.7% 5.9 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
Campbell 9.0% 5.4 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Radford 3.5% 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.0
Presbyterian 2.6% 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Charleston Southern 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Carolina Upstate 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Longwood 26.7% 26.5% 0.2% 15   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.0 5.7 7.0 5.6 4.0 73.3 0.2%
Winthrop 21.7% 21.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 2.4 4.2 5.4 4.7 4.0 78.3 0.1%
UNC Asheville 16.1% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.9 4.2 4.0 3.4 83.9 0.1%
Gardner-Webb 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 88.5 0.1%
High Point 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.0 2.7 91.8 0.0%
Campbell 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.0 2.9 92.1 0.0%
Radford 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.8 96.4 0.0%
Presbyterian 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.5 97.4 0.0%
Charleston Southern 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 98.7 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 99.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Longwood 26.7% 1.9% 25.7% 3.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Winthrop 21.7% 2.2% 20.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Asheville 16.1% 1.8% 15.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 11.5% 1.9% 10.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
High Point 8.2% 1.6% 7.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 7.9% 1.9% 7.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Radford 3.6% 1.3% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Presbyterian 2.6% 1.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charleston Southern 1.3% 0.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.6 0.4
1st Round 92.5% 0.9 7.5 92.3 0.3
2nd Round 8.3% 0.1 91.7 8.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0