Preseason Rankings
Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2022-23

Last Updated: Nov 6, 2022

View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Gonzaga Auto 94.4% 58.4% 36.0% 86.5%
1  North Carolina Auto 90.3% 19.9% 70.4% 87.9%
1  Kansas At-Large 84.7% 17.4% 67.3% 81.5%
1  Kentucky Auto 88.3% 18.0% 70.3% 85.7%
2  Baylor Auto 85.8% 19.0% 66.8% 82.4%
2  Houston Auto 89.1% 38.7% 50.3% 82.1%
2  Duke At-Large 83.7% 16.9% 66.8% 80.4%
2  UCLA Auto 83.5% 22.2% 61.3% 78.8%
3  Texas At-Large 79.1% 15.3% 63.7% 75.3%
3  Tennessee At-Large 81.4% 13.8% 67.6% 78.4%
3  Arkansas At-Large 80.9% 13.3% 67.6% 77.9%
3  Indiana Auto 74.1% 12.9% 61.2% 70.2%
4  Michigan At-Large 72.3% 11.6% 60.8% 68.7%
4  Arizona At-Large 77.4% 18.7% 58.8% 72.3%
4  Auburn At-Large 70.5% 9.2% 61.3% 67.5%
4  Alabama At-Large 65.3% 8.7% 56.7% 62.0%
5  Creighton Auto 72.7% 17.8% 55.0% 66.8%
5  Villanova At-Large 71.5% 16.3% 55.2% 65.9%
5  Michigan St. At-Large 60.8% 9.4% 51.4% 56.7%
5  Texas Tech At-Large 65.7% 10.9% 54.8% 61.5%
6  Virginia At-Large 65.9% 9.7% 56.2% 62.2%
6  Purdue At-Large 63.1% 9.5% 53.6% 59.2%
6  Illinois At-Large 65.6% 11.1% 54.5% 61.3%
6  TCU At-Large 59.1% 10.2% 48.9% 54.5%
7  Oklahoma At-Large 48.2% 7.2% 41.0% 44.1%
7  Oklahoma St. At-Large 49.1% 6.7% 42.4% 45.4%
7  Florida At-Large 55.0% 7.0% 48.0% 51.6%
7  Iowa At-Large 55.3% 8.0% 47.3% 51.4%
8  Xavier At-Large 60.7% 12.1% 48.6% 55.3%
8  Ohio St. At-Large 48.6% 7.2% 41.3% 44.5%
8  Texas A&M At-Large 49.8% 6.1% 43.6% 46.5%
8  Oregon At-Large 61.8% 12.2% 49.6% 56.5%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Virginia Tech At-Large 51.4% 7.5% 43.9% 47.5%
9  Miami (FL) At-Large 55.0% 7.3% 47.7% 51.5%
9  Connecticut At-Large 54.0% 11.3% 42.7% 48.1%
9  Wisconsin At-Large 45.8% 6.3% 39.5% 42.1%
10  Notre Dame At-Large 48.4% 6.3% 42.0% 44.9%
10  Florida St. At-Large 45.5% 5.6% 39.9% 42.3%
10  USC At-Large 53.2% 10.4% 42.8% 47.8%
10  Memphis At-Large 56.2% 15.6% 40.6% 48.1%
11  Maryland At-Large 43.6% 5.7% 38.0% 40.2%
11  St. Mary's At-Large 49.2% 13.4% 35.9% 41.4%
11  San Diego St. Auto 67.9% 28.5% 39.4% 55.1%
11  Seton Hall At-Large 45.8% 8.7% 37.1% 40.6%
11  Saint Louis At-Large 49.3% 15.6% 33.7% 39.9%
11  Dayton Auto 56.2% 20.2% 36.0% 45.1%
12  UAB Auto 39.2% 26.0% 13.2% 17.9%
12  Drake Auto 35.5% 25.1% 10.4% 13.9%
12  Furman Auto 32.9% 29.4% 3.4% 4.9%
12  Toledo Auto 22.9% 19.8% 3.1% 3.9%
13  Iona Auto 35.2% 32.6% 2.6% 3.8%
13  New Mexico St. Auto 21.2% 18.2% 3.0% 3.6%
13  Towson Auto 23.3% 21.7% 1.5% 1.9%
13  Vermont Auto 49.5% 48.6% 0.9% 1.7%
14  Liberty Auto 35.1% 33.9% 1.2% 1.8%
14  Colgate Auto 45.0% 44.4% 0.6% 1.1%
14  Oral Roberts Auto 31.8% 31.2% 0.6% 0.8%
14  UC Santa Barbara Auto 23.6% 22.7% 0.9% 1.2%
15  Marshall Auto 11.1% 10.5% 0.6% 0.6%
15  Montana St. Auto 26.1% 25.8% 0.3% 0.4%
15  Yale Auto 21.5% 21.0% 0.5% 0.6%
15  Longwood Auto 26.7% 26.5% 0.2% 0.2%
16  Wright St. Auto 17.5% 17.3% 0.3% 0.3%
16  Morehead St. Auto 42.6% 42.6% 0.0% 0.1%
16  Nicholls St. Auto 40.1% 40.1%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 64.9% 64.9%
16  Wagner Auto 28.4% 28.4% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Texas Southern Auto 36.5% 36.5% 0.0% 0.0%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Kansas 84.7% 17.4% 67.3% 81.5%
Duke 83.7% 16.9% 66.8% 80.4%
Tennessee 81.4% 13.8% 67.6% 78.4%
Arkansas 80.9% 13.3% 67.6% 77.9%
Texas 79.1% 15.3% 63.7% 75.3%
Arizona 77.4% 18.7% 58.8% 72.3%
Michigan 72.3% 11.6% 60.8% 68.7%
Auburn 70.5% 9.2% 61.3% 67.5%
Villanova 71.5% 16.3% 55.2% 65.9%
Virginia 65.9% 9.7% 56.2% 62.2%
Alabama 65.3% 8.7% 56.7% 62.0%
Texas Tech 65.7% 10.9% 54.8% 61.5%
Illinois 65.6% 11.1% 54.5% 61.3%
Purdue 63.1% 9.5% 53.6% 59.2%
Michigan St. 60.8% 9.4% 51.4% 56.7%
Oregon 61.8% 12.2% 49.6% 56.5%
Xavier 60.7% 12.1% 48.6% 55.3%
TCU 59.1% 10.2% 48.9% 54.5%
Florida 55.0% 7.0% 48.0% 51.6%
Miami (FL) 55.0% 7.3% 47.7% 51.5%
Iowa 55.3% 8.0% 47.3% 51.4%
Connecticut 54.0% 11.3% 42.7% 48.1%
Memphis 56.2% 15.6% 40.6% 48.1%
USC 53.2% 10.4% 42.8% 47.8%
Virginia Tech 51.4% 7.5% 43.9% 47.5%
Texas A&M 49.8% 6.1% 43.6% 46.5%
Oklahoma St. 49.1% 6.7% 42.4% 45.4%
Notre Dame 48.4% 6.3% 42.0% 44.9%
Ohio St. 48.6% 7.2% 41.3% 44.5%
Oklahoma 48.2% 7.2% 41.0% 44.1%
Florida St. 45.5% 5.6% 39.9% 42.3%
Wisconsin 45.8% 6.3% 39.5% 42.1%
St. Mary's 49.2% 13.4% 35.9% 41.4%
Seton Hall 45.8% 8.7% 37.1% 40.6%
Maryland 43.6% 5.7% 38.0% 40.2%
Saint Louis 49.3% 15.6% 33.7% 39.9%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Rutgers 43.0% 6.2% 36.8% 39.3%
LSU 42.2% 5.0% 37.2% 39.2%
Syracuse 40.6% 4.9% 35.7% 37.6%
St. John's 39.3% 7.9% 31.3% 34.0%
Providence 38.6% 7.9% 30.7% 33.3%
West Virginia 35.2% 4.7% 30.4% 31.9%
Colorado 36.1% 6.8% 29.3% 31.5%
Mississippi 34.3% 4.2% 30.0% 31.4%
Stanford 35.0% 6.9% 28.1% 30.2%
Cincinnati 37.4% 10.7% 26.8% 29.9%
Arizona St. 34.4% 6.5% 27.9% 29.8%
Iowa St. 32.9% 5.0% 28.0% 29.4%
Clemson 32.3% 4.2% 28.1% 29.3%
Washington St. 31.5% 5.5% 26.0% 27.5%
Marquette 31.8% 6.6% 25.1% 26.9%
Wake Forest 28.9% 3.7% 25.2% 26.1%
BYU 33.8% 10.8% 23.1% 25.8%
Penn St. 28.9% 4.1% 24.8% 25.8%
Vanderbilt 28.0% 3.1% 24.9% 25.7%
Wyoming 35.3% 13.2% 22.0% 25.4%
Louisville 28.0% 3.6% 24.4% 25.3%
Mississippi St. 28.0% 3.7% 24.3% 25.2%
Loyola Chicago 34.8% 12.9% 21.9% 25.2%
North Carolina St. 27.1% 3.7% 23.4% 24.3%
Missouri 25.4% 3.4% 22.0% 22.8%
Kansas St. 25.3% 3.6% 21.7% 22.5%
Utah St. 30.1% 11.3% 18.8% 21.2%
Boise St. 29.4% 11.3% 18.2% 20.5%
Butler 24.1% 4.7% 19.4% 20.3%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Virginia Commonwealth 27.9% 9.7% 18.2% 20.2%
Davidson 24.6% 8.1% 16.5% 18.0%
Northwestern 19.6% 2.9% 16.7% 17.2%
South Carolina 18.9% 2.5% 16.4% 16.8%
Washington 20.1% 3.9% 16.1% 16.8%
Colorado St. 25.4% 10.5% 14.9% 16.6%
Boston College 18.4% 2.8% 15.6% 16.1%
Utah 19.7% 4.4% 15.4% 16.1%
DePaul 19.1% 3.9% 15.3% 15.9%
San Francisco 20.9% 6.9% 14.0% 15.1%
Richmond 21.3% 7.4% 13.9% 15.0%
Temple 19.3% 5.5% 13.8% 14.6%
Tulane 19.3% 6.9% 12.4% 13.3%
North Texas 30.2% 19.5% 10.7% 13.3%
Georgia Tech 15.1% 2.3% 12.8% 13.1%
Central Florida 18.0% 5.9% 12.1% 12.9%
SMU 17.3% 5.1% 12.2% 12.8%
Minnesota 14.9% 2.8% 12.1% 12.5%
Wichita St. 16.2% 5.7% 10.6% 11.2%
Nebraska 13.2% 2.3% 10.8% 11.1%
Georgetown 12.3% 2.8% 9.5% 9.8%
Georgia 10.6% 1.8% 8.8% 9.0%
Fresno St. 14.9% 6.8% 8.1% 8.7%
St. Bonaventure 13.4% 5.2% 8.2% 8.7%
UNLV 14.1% 6.1% 8.0% 8.5%
Pittsburgh 9.6% 1.7% 7.8% 8.0%
New Mexico 12.3% 5.3% 7.0% 7.4%
Rhode Island 10.1% 4.4% 5.7% 5.9%
California 7.6% 1.8% 5.8% 5.9%
Western Kentucky 16.1% 11.3% 4.8% 5.4%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Massachusetts 8.9% 3.9% 5.0% 5.2%
George Mason 8.4% 3.7% 4.6% 4.8%
Santa Clara 7.8% 3.1% 4.7% 4.8%
Nevada 8.9% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7%
Louisiana Tech 13.3% 9.5% 3.8% 4.2%
Belmont 14.9% 11.3% 3.5% 4.0%
Florida Atlantic 11.6% 8.5% 3.1% 3.4%
Bradley 13.9% 10.9% 3.0% 3.3%
Middle Tennessee 10.1% 7.1% 3.1% 3.3%
Murray St. 14.1% 11.3% 2.9% 3.2%
Tulsa 5.4% 2.5% 2.9% 3.0%
Akron 19.2% 16.8% 2.4% 2.9%
Missouri St. 11.5% 8.9% 2.6% 2.8%
Grand Canyon 19.3% 17.2% 2.1% 2.6%
South Florida 4.5% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3%
Northern Iowa 10.7% 8.5% 2.1% 2.3%
Buffalo 15.0% 13.3% 1.7% 2.0%
Saint Joseph's 4.3% 2.4% 1.9% 1.9%
Kent St. 18.2% 16.6% 1.6% 1.9%
Chattanooga 17.6% 16.0% 1.6% 1.9%
Loyola Marymount 3.7% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8%
UNC Greensboro 14.9% 13.7% 1.2% 1.4%
Portland 3.3% 1.9% 1.3% 1.4%
UTEP 7.1% 5.9% 1.2% 1.3%
Southern Illinois 8.7% 7.5% 1.2% 1.3%
Duquesne 3.1% 1.9% 1.2% 1.2%
Hofstra 15.5% 14.4% 1.0% 1.2%
San Diego 2.6% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0%
La Salle 2.7% 1.7% 1.0% 1.0%
Abilene Christian 12.2% 11.3% 0.9% 1.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
UC Irvine 18.0% 17.3% 0.7% 0.9%
Charlotte 5.4% 4.6% 0.8% 0.8%
Ohio 11.7% 11.0% 0.7% 0.8%
College of Charleston 13.6% 12.9% 0.7% 0.8%
Louisiana 11.2% 10.5% 0.7% 0.8%
East Carolina 2.0% 1.3% 0.8% 0.8%
Utah Valley 10.4% 9.7% 0.7% 0.7%
St. Peter's 17.9% 17.3% 0.6% 0.7%
Indiana St. 6.3% 5.7% 0.7% 0.7%
Oregon St. 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
Delaware 13.1% 12.5% 0.6% 0.7%
Georgia St. 10.1% 9.5% 0.6% 0.7%
Stephen F. Austin 9.1% 8.5% 0.6% 0.7%
Penn 20.5% 20.0% 0.5% 0.7%
Pepperdine 1.9% 1.3% 0.7% 0.7%
South Dakota St. 25.1% 24.6% 0.5% 0.6%
San Jose St. 2.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.6%
James Madison 10.6% 10.1% 0.5% 0.6%
Wofford 9.3% 8.8% 0.5% 0.6%
Princeton 17.2% 16.8% 0.5% 0.6%
Appalachian St. 9.4% 8.9% 0.5% 0.6%
Texas St. 10.0% 9.5% 0.5% 0.6%
Southern Utah 8.2% 7.7% 0.5% 0.5%
Coastal Carolina 9.1% 8.7% 0.5% 0.5%
George Washington 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Hawaii 14.7% 14.2% 0.4% 0.5%
Seattle 8.5% 8.0% 0.5% 0.5%
Samford 9.3% 8.8% 0.5% 0.5%
South Dakota 24.7% 24.4% 0.4% 0.5%
East Tennessee St. 8.6% 8.2% 0.5% 0.5%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Old Dominion 8.7% 8.3% 0.4% 0.5%
Fordham 1.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.5%
Illinois St. 5.3% 4.8% 0.4% 0.4%
Mercer 7.8% 7.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Harvard 16.6% 16.3% 0.3% 0.4%
California Baptist 7.1% 6.7% 0.4% 0.4%
Rice 3.6% 3.2% 0.4% 0.4%
Sam Houston St. 8.1% 7.8% 0.4% 0.4%
Jacksonville 13.3% 13.0% 0.3% 0.4%
Long Beach St. 12.0% 11.7% 0.3% 0.3%
South Alabama 7.0% 6.7% 0.3% 0.3%
Cal St. Fullerton 11.3% 11.0% 0.3% 0.3%
Northeastern 8.4% 8.2% 0.3% 0.3%
Florida International 2.7% 2.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Bryant 21.6% 21.4% 0.2% 0.3%
Ball St. 6.5% 6.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Air Force 1.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Pacific 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2%
UNC Wilmington 9.8% 9.6% 0.2% 0.2%
Drexel 8.4% 8.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Northern Kentucky 15.2% 15.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Eastern Michigan 4.4% 4.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Valparaiso 3.6% 3.4% 0.2% 0.2%
UC Riverside 9.4% 9.3% 0.2% 0.2%
Eastern Washington 16.9% 16.8% 0.2% 0.2%
Montana 18.6% 18.5% 0.1% 0.2%
Fairfield 8.1% 8.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Weber St. 13.5% 13.3% 0.1% 0.2%
Cornell 11.0% 10.9% 0.1% 0.2%
Florida Gulf Coast 9.4% 9.3% 0.1% 0.2%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Oakland 12.7% 12.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Winthrop 21.7% 21.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Texas San Antonio 2.1% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Illinois-Chicago 2.2% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Troy 4.8% 4.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Purdue Fort Wayne 14.7% 14.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Jacksonville St. 9.0% 8.9% 0.1% 0.1%
UC Davis 6.9% 6.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Quinnipiac 8.0% 7.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Rider 8.1% 8.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Eastern Kentucky 7.5% 7.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Georgia Southern 4.0% 3.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Detroit Mercy 9.8% 9.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Lipscomb 7.0% 6.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Texas Arlington 3.7% 3.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Siena 5.9% 5.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Brown 8.2% 8.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Arkansas St. 4.8% 4.7% 0.1% 0.1%
North Dakota St. 10.6% 10.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Manhattan 6.9% 6.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Youngstown St. 10.6% 10.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Cleveland St. 12.1% 12.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Bowling Green 4.3% 4.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Northern Colorado 12.8% 12.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Navy 10.9% 10.9% 0.1% 0.1%
UNC Asheville 16.1% 16.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Maryland Baltimore Co. 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.1%
Niagara 6.4% 6.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Gardner-Webb 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.1%
Umass Lowell 10.5% 10.4% 0.0% 0.1%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Boston University 12.1% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 5.8% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0%
High Point 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (OH) 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 3.4% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Dartmouth 5.4% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Michigan 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 4.5% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 2.9% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 1.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 6.5% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Portland St. 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Albany 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
American 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%