Preseason Rankings
Colonial Athletic
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
118 Towson 23.3%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 6 +3.6      +2.2 123 +1.5 129 63.5 311 0.0 1 0.0 1
141 Hofstra 15.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 11 - 7 +1.6      +3.2 91 -1.5 224 71.8 81 0.0 1 0.0 1
151 College of Charleston 13.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 7 +1.0      +2.2 121 -1.2 210 83.1 1 0.0 1 0.0 1
153 Delaware 13.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 +0.8      +1.0 156 -0.2 177 67.3 206 0.0 1 0.0 1
179 UNC Wilmington 9.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 11 - 7 -0.4      +0.9 159 -1.3 216 64.5 282 0.0 1 0.0 1
199 Northeastern 8.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -1.2      -2.3 252 +1.1 140 62.9 323 0.0 1 0.0 1
201 Drexel 8.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -1.3      -0.9 208 -0.4 186 66.5 227 0.0 1 0.0 1
258 Stony Brook 3.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -5.0      -0.9 212 -4.1 295 69.9 121 0.0 1 0.0 1
260 Monmouth 3.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 20 8 - 10 -5.2      -3.5 282 -1.7 230 66.6 226 0.0 1 0.0 1
270 N.C. A&T 2.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 10 -5.7      -3.5 281 -2.2 246 69.1 144 0.0 1 0.0 1
295 William & Mary 1.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 12 -8.0      -3.9 289 -4.1 296 71.5 89 0.0 1 0.0 1
302 Elon 1.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 12 -8.3      -4.9 305 -3.4 278 65.4 258 0.0 1 0.0 1
328 Hampton 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 22 5 - 13 -10.6      -4.3 300 -6.2 337 71.0 98 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Towson 3.7 28.3 17.5 12.7 10.0 8.2 6.6 5.2 4.1 2.9 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.3
Hofstra 4.4 19.6 15.5 13.0 11.1 9.4 7.9 6.4 5.4 4.3 3.1 2.2 1.4 0.6
College of Charleston 4.7 16.7 13.9 12.4 11.0 9.7 8.7 7.4 6.2 5.1 3.6 2.8 1.7 0.9
Delaware 5.0 15.1 12.5 11.7 11.0 9.6 9.2 7.8 6.9 5.5 4.4 3.2 2.1 1.1
UNC Wilmington 5.0 13.9 13.1 12.5 11.2 9.8 8.8 7.8 6.5 5.3 4.5 3.3 2.2 1.2
Northeastern 5.9 9.0 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.0 9.8 9.1 8.1 7.5 6.2 5.0 3.5 1.8
Drexel 5.6 10.5 10.6 11.0 10.4 9.9 9.3 8.7 7.8 6.7 5.6 4.5 3.1 1.8
Stony Brook 7.7 3.3 4.5 5.9 6.9 7.7 8.8 9.2 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.6 8.4 6.2
Monmouth 7.7 3.3 4.6 5.8 6.7 7.6 8.6 9.1 9.7 10.3 10.2 9.5 8.4 6.1
N.C. A&T 7.8 3.1 4.3 5.4 6.5 7.3 8.1 9.2 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.0 8.9 7.1
William & Mary 9.0 1.3 2.2 3.0 4.2 4.9 6.3 7.6 9.3 10.7 11.8 13.0 13.3 12.5
Elon 9.4 1.0 1.7 2.4 3.3 4.3 5.4 6.7 7.8 10.1 11.6 14.3 16.4 15.1
Hampton 10.3 0.4 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.8 3.6 5.1 6.5 8.2 11.0 14.5 18.7 25.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Towson 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.4 4.8 6.3 8.2 10.0 10.8 12.1 12.2 11.1 8.4 5.7 2.3
Hofstra 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.3 4.8 6.3 8.2 9.5 10.9 11.6 11.3 10.2 8.7 6.2 3.4 1.2
College of Charleston 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.7 3.9 5.7 7.5 8.6 10.5 11.0 11.2 10.6 9.4 7.2 5.0 2.6 1.0
Delaware 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.7 6.3 7.8 9.4 10.4 11.2 10.8 10.1 8.4 6.5 4.3 2.3 0.8
UNC Wilmington 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.7 3.2 4.5 6.4 7.7 9.5 10.4 10.8 11.1 10.2 8.8 6.8 4.1 2.4 0.7
Northeastern 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.1 4.9 6.4 8.2 9.5 10.6 10.9 10.7 9.6 8.1 6.4 4.3 2.5 1.2 0.3
Drexel 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.0 4.4 6.0 7.5 9.0 10.1 10.8 10.7 10.2 8.9 6.9 5.1 3.0 1.4 0.5
Stony Brook 8 - 10 0.5 1.6 3.1 5.4 6.9 8.5 10.0 10.9 10.7 10.1 9.1 7.4 5.9 4.3 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
Monmouth 8 - 10 0.4 1.5 3.2 5.2 7.2 8.9 10.2 10.8 10.7 10.1 8.9 7.8 5.5 4.2 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
N.C. A&T 8 - 10 0.5 1.7 3.3 5.6 7.6 9.2 10.4 10.8 11.1 9.8 8.4 7.0 5.5 3.9 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1
William & Mary 6 - 12 1.2 3.5 6.0 8.7 10.8 11.5 11.6 11.3 9.5 7.8 6.3 4.6 3.2 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Elon 6 - 12 1.8 4.8 7.9 10.3 11.6 12.2 11.7 10.0 8.4 6.9 5.2 3.6 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Hampton 5 - 13 3.7 7.9 11.4 13.1 13.2 12.1 10.2 8.7 6.7 4.8 3.4 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Towson 28.3% 19.7 6.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Hofstra 19.6% 12.8 5.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
College of Charleston 16.7% 10.8 4.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Delaware 15.1% 9.6 4.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
UNC Wilmington 13.9% 8.4 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northeastern 9.0% 5.3 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Drexel 10.5% 6.3 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Stony Brook 3.3% 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 3.3% 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 3.1% 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
William & Mary 1.3% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Elon 1.0% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hampton 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Towson 23.3% 21.7% 1.5% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 2.9 5.4 5.3 3.5 2.1 1.4 76.7 1.9%
Hofstra 15.5% 14.4% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.6 3.2 3.3 2.6 1.8 1.7 84.5 1.2%
College of Charleston 13.6% 12.9% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.2 2.6 3.2 2.8 1.7 1.3 86.4 0.8%
Delaware 13.1% 12.5% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 2.7 3.1 2.3 1.6 1.4 86.9 0.7%
UNC Wilmington 9.8% 9.6% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.7 90.2 0.2%
Northeastern 8.4% 8.2% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.7 91.6 0.3%
Drexel 8.4% 8.2% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.5 91.6 0.2%
Stony Brook 3.4% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.2 96.6 0.0%
Monmouth 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.2 96.8 0.0%
N.C. A&T 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.0 97.4 0.0%
William & Mary 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 98.6 0.0%
Elon 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 98.6 0.0%
Hampton 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 99.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Towson 23.3% 1.5% 22.6% 4.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 15.5% 1.7% 14.7% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 13.6% 1.3% 13.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 13.1% 1.2% 12.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 9.8% 1.2% 9.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 8.4% 1.3% 7.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 8.4% 1.0% 7.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 3.4% 0.9% 2.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 3.2% 1.0% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 2.6% 0.8% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 1.4% 0.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 1.4% 0.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 95.4 4.5 0.1
1st Round 95.2% 1.0 4.8 92.1 3.0 0.0
2nd Round 15.0% 0.2 85.0 14.8 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 4.1% 0.0 95.9 4.0 0.0
Elite Eight 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0 0.0
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0