Preseason Rankings
Elon
Colonial Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.3#302
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.4#258
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#305
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#278
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 3.0% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.8 15.4
.500 or above 15.9% 34.9% 10.1%
.500 or above in Conference 21.3% 36.7% 16.6%
Conference Champion 1.0% 2.3% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 23.0% 11.3% 26.5%
First Four0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
First Round1.1% 2.5% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Neutral) - 23.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 82 - 12
Quad 47 - 79 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 189   East Tennessee St. L 64-72 23%    
  Nov 17, 2022 322   North Dakota W 73-68 65%    
  Nov 19, 2022 69   @ North Carolina St. L 61-81 4%    
  Nov 22, 2022 209   @ Jacksonville St. L 62-72 20%    
  Nov 27, 2022 293   Radford W 66-63 59%    
  Nov 30, 2022 255   @ High Point L 64-71 29%    
  Dec 03, 2022 139   UNC Greensboro L 59-66 28%    
  Dec 15, 2022 310   @ Presbyterian L 64-66 43%    
  Dec 18, 2022 212   @ Valparaiso L 62-72 22%    
  Dec 20, 2022 13   @ Indiana L 55-82 1%    
  Dec 29, 2022 201   @ Drexel L 63-73 21%    
  Dec 31, 2022 153   @ Delaware L 63-75 16%    
  Jan 04, 2023 179   UNC Wilmington L 65-70 35%    
  Jan 11, 2023 270   N.C. A&T W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 14, 2023 151   @ College of Charleston L 71-83 16%    
  Jan 16, 2023 179   @ UNC Wilmington L 62-73 19%    
  Jan 21, 2023 118   Towson L 62-71 24%    
  Jan 26, 2023 141   Hofstra L 69-76 29%    
  Jan 28, 2023 201   Drexel L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 02, 2023 258   @ Stony Brook L 68-74 31%    
  Feb 04, 2023 199   @ Northeastern L 59-69 21%    
  Feb 08, 2023 270   @ N.C. A&T L 66-72 33%    
  Feb 11, 2023 295   William & Mary W 72-69 58%    
  Feb 13, 2023 328   Hampton W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 16, 2023 151   College of Charleston L 74-80 31%    
  Feb 18, 2023 260   @ Monmouth L 64-70 32%    
  Feb 23, 2023 295   @ William & Mary L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 25, 2023 153   Delaware L 66-72 31%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.9 0.1 3.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.6 0.5 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.3 0.8 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 10.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.8 4.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 11.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.5 5.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 14.3 11th
12th 0.6 2.9 5.6 5.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 16.4 12th
13th 1.8 4.3 4.8 3.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 15.1 13th
Total 1.8 4.8 7.9 10.3 11.6 12.2 11.7 10.0 8.4 6.9 5.2 3.6 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 92.6% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-3 59.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 34.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 60.0% 60.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 38.7% 34.5% 4.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4%
16-2 0.2% 21.5% 21.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 10.2% 9.7% 0.6% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6%
14-4 0.9% 10.7% 10.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
13-5 1.5% 9.1% 9.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
12-6 2.6% 6.2% 6.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4
11-7 3.6% 5.6% 5.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.4
10-8 5.2% 3.4% 3.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.0
9-9 6.9% 2.2% 2.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.7
8-10 8.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.3
7-11 10.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 9.9
6-12 11.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 11.6
5-13 12.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.2
4-14 11.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.5
3-15 10.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.3
2-16 7.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.8
1-17 4.8% 4.8
0-18 1.8% 1.8
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%