Preseason Rankings
Creighton
Big East
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.3#14
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.8#197
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#28
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#10
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.9% 1.9% 0.0%
#1 Seed 8.1% 8.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 16.9% 16.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 33.9% 33.9% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 48.3% 48.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.7% 72.7% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 66.8% 66.8% 8.3%
Average Seed 5.3 5.3 10.0
.500 or above 88.7% 88.7% 33.3%
.500 or above in Conference 83.3% 83.3% 41.7%
Conference Champion 27.8% 27.8% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.7% 8.3%
First Four3.1% 3.1% 0.0%
First Round71.3% 71.3% 8.3%
Second Round53.9% 54.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen31.0% 31.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight16.6% 16.6% 0.0%
Final Four8.7% 8.7% 0.0%
Championship Game4.3% 4.3% 0.0%
National Champion2.2% 2.2% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Thomas (Home) - 100.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 6
Quad 26 - 211 - 8
Quad 35 - 116 - 9
Quad 44 - 020 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 357   St. Thomas W 88-50 100.0%   
  Nov 10, 2022 322   North Dakota W 86-58 99%    
  Nov 14, 2022 317   Holy Cross W 85-57 99%    
  Nov 17, 2022 207   UC Riverside W 77-57 96%    
  Nov 21, 2022 17   Texas Tech W 67-66 52%    
  Dec 01, 2022 9   @ Texas L 63-68 35%    
  Dec 04, 2022 98   Nebraska W 82-69 85%    
  Dec 10, 2022 55   BYU W 75-69 68%    
  Dec 12, 2022 61   Arizona St. W 72-66 69%    
  Dec 16, 2022 63   @ Marquette W 76-73 61%    
  Dec 22, 2022 80   Butler W 72-61 81%    
  Dec 25, 2022 91   DePaul W 79-67 83%    
  Jan 03, 2023 46   Seton Hall W 73-65 73%    
  Jan 07, 2023 31   @ Connecticut L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 11, 2023 27   @ Xavier L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 14, 2023 50   Providence W 72-64 74%    
  Jan 17, 2023 80   @ Butler W 69-64 65%    
  Jan 25, 2023 49   St. John's W 82-74 74%    
  Jan 28, 2023 27   Xavier W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 01, 2023 102   @ Georgetown W 78-71 72%    
  Feb 04, 2023 16   Villanova W 66-63 61%    
  Feb 08, 2023 46   @ Seton Hall W 70-68 55%    
  Feb 11, 2023 31   Connecticut W 71-65 68%    
  Feb 14, 2023 50   @ Providence W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 18, 2023 49   @ St. John's W 79-77 56%    
  Feb 21, 2023 63   Marquette W 79-70 77%    
  Feb 25, 2023 16   @ Villanova L 63-66 42%    
  Mar 01, 2023 102   Georgetown W 81-68 85%    
  Mar 04, 2023 91   @ DePaul W 76-70 68%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.1 5.6 6.7 5.8 3.6 1.6 27.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.0 4.7 5.5 3.8 1.5 0.3 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.5 4.7 3.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.9 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.0 2.9 4.0 5.1 6.5 8.1 8.8 10.0 10.4 10.3 9.7 8.3 6.1 3.6 1.6 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
19-1 100.0% 3.6    3.5 0.1
18-2 95.5% 5.8    5.3 0.5 0.0
17-3 81.3% 6.7    5.3 1.4 0.1
16-4 57.8% 5.6    3.5 1.9 0.3 0.0
15-5 30.2% 3.1    1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
14-6 10.6% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 27.8% 27.8 20.7 5.7 1.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.6% 100.0% 51.0% 49.0% 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 3.6% 100.0% 43.4% 56.6% 1.5 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 6.1% 100.0% 37.2% 62.8% 1.9 2.4 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 8.3% 100.0% 28.5% 71.5% 2.6 1.6 2.7 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 9.7% 99.7% 24.6% 75.1% 3.6 0.6 1.8 2.7 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
15-5 10.3% 99.2% 21.0% 78.2% 4.8 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.3 2.2 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
14-6 10.4% 96.6% 17.0% 79.7% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.0%
13-7 10.0% 89.2% 13.8% 75.4% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.1 87.4%
12-8 8.8% 75.8% 12.6% 63.2% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 72.3%
11-9 8.1% 54.9% 9.1% 45.8% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 50.4%
10-10 6.5% 32.1% 7.8% 24.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 26.3%
9-11 5.1% 13.0% 5.9% 7.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 7.5%
8-12 4.0% 6.6% 5.2% 1.4% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.8 1.5%
7-13 2.9% 4.1% 4.0% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.8 0.1%
6-14 2.0% 3.1% 3.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.0
5-15 1.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-16 0.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-17 0.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 72.7% 17.8% 55.0% 5.3 8.1 8.8 9.1 8.0 7.4 6.9 5.9 5.7 4.3 3.8 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 27.3 66.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.2 84.8 15.2