Preseason Rankings
Xavier
Big East
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#27
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.0#99
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#15
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#54
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 4.6% 4.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 10.0% 10.1% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 21.8% 22.1% 1.8%
Top 6 Seed 33.7% 34.1% 4.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 60.7% 61.3% 18.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 55.3% 55.9% 15.4%
Average Seed 6.1 6.1 9.2
.500 or above 80.3% 81.0% 34.9%
.500 or above in Conference 70.4% 70.9% 32.3%
Conference Champion 15.5% 15.7% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 3.6% 16.1%
First Four3.9% 3.9% 3.9%
First Round58.9% 59.4% 17.4%
Second Round40.0% 40.4% 7.5%
Sweet Sixteen20.0% 20.3% 2.2%
Elite Eight9.5% 9.6% 1.1%
Final Four4.4% 4.4% 0.7%
Championship Game2.0% 2.0% 0.4%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.2%

Next Game: Morgan St. (Home) - 98.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 7
Quad 25 - 39 - 9
Quad 35 - 114 - 10
Quad 45 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 287   Morgan St. W 90-67 99%    
  Nov 11, 2022 170   Montana W 79-63 93%    
  Nov 15, 2022 222   Fairfield W 78-60 95%    
  Nov 18, 2022 13   Indiana W 74-73 51%    
  Nov 24, 2022 30   Florida W 73-72 51%    
  Nov 30, 2022 316   SE Louisiana W 92-67 98%    
  Dec 03, 2022 56   West Virginia W 78-72 70%    
  Dec 10, 2022 53   @ Cincinnati W 75-74 50%    
  Dec 13, 2022 279   Southern W 86-64 97%    
  Dec 16, 2022 102   @ Georgetown W 81-76 66%    
  Dec 20, 2022 46   Seton Hall W 75-70 66%    
  Dec 28, 2022 49   @ St. John's L 82-83 48%    
  Dec 31, 2022 31   Connecticut W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 07, 2023 16   @ Villanova L 65-70 34%    
  Jan 11, 2023 14   Creighton W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 15, 2023 63   Marquette W 82-75 70%    
  Jan 18, 2023 91   @ DePaul W 78-74 61%    
  Jan 21, 2023 102   Georgetown W 84-73 81%    
  Jan 25, 2023 31   @ Connecticut L 70-73 42%    
  Jan 28, 2023 14   @ Creighton L 70-75 34%    
  Feb 01, 2023 50   Providence W 74-68 67%    
  Feb 04, 2023 49   St. John's W 85-80 67%    
  Feb 10, 2023 80   @ Butler W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 15, 2023 63   @ Marquette W 79-78 52%    
  Feb 18, 2023 91   DePaul W 81-71 77%    
  Feb 21, 2023 16   Villanova W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 24, 2023 46   @ Seton Hall L 72-73 47%    
  Mar 01, 2023 50   @ Providence L 71-72 49%    
  Mar 04, 2023 80   Butler W 73-65 75%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.5 3.8 3.0 1.6 0.5 15.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.9 4.3 2.6 0.9 0.1 14.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 2.8 4.5 3.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.1 4.6 2.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 2.8 1.1 0.1 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 2.3 0.8 0.1 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.0 1.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.7 4.0 5.0 6.7 7.6 8.4 9.6 10.0 9.5 8.9 7.9 6.3 4.7 3.1 1.6 0.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.0
18-2 95.6% 3.0    2.7 0.3 0.0
17-3 81.0% 3.8    2.9 0.9 0.0
16-4 54.8% 3.5    2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 27.6% 2.2    0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.5% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.5% 15.5 10.8 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 100.0% 44.9% 55.1% 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.6% 100.0% 36.6% 63.4% 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.1% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.7% 99.9% 27.8% 72.1% 2.5 1.1 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 6.3% 99.8% 21.5% 78.3% 3.4 0.5 1.4 1.8 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 7.9% 99.0% 19.3% 79.8% 4.6 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.8%
14-6 8.9% 96.8% 14.8% 82.1% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.3%
13-7 9.5% 91.8% 12.6% 79.2% 7.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.8 90.7%
12-8 10.0% 81.0% 10.2% 70.8% 8.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.9 78.9%
11-9 9.6% 61.6% 8.7% 53.0% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 58.0%
10-10 8.4% 38.9% 6.8% 32.1% 10.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 34.5%
9-11 7.6% 17.3% 6.1% 11.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.3 11.9%
8-12 6.7% 6.7% 4.5% 2.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.2 2.4%
7-13 5.0% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.9 0.1%
6-14 4.0% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.9
5-15 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.7
4-16 1.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.8
3-17 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-18 0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
1-19 0.2% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 60.7% 12.1% 48.6% 6.1 4.6 5.4 6.0 5.8 5.8 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.2 4.6 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 39.3 55.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 85.7 14.3