Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic Coast
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
8 North Carolina 100.0%   2   27 - 7 17 - 3 27 - 7 17 - 3 +17.6      +8.2 22 +9.4 6 74.5 43 +17.0 6 +19.2 1
9 Duke 99.8%   4   24 - 8 15 - 5 25 - 8 15 - 5 +17.1      +10.7 8 +6.4 27 67.2 219 +14.2 16 +15.2 2
32 Wake Forest 12.4%   20 - 13 11 - 9 20 - 13 11 - 9 +12.4      +7.9 25 +4.5 55 70.1 128 +9.3 66 +10.2 6
33 Pittsburgh 41.9%   22 - 11 12 - 8 22 - 11 12 - 8 +11.8      +7.1 30 +4.7 44 64.9 280 +11.0 50 +11.5 4
36 Clemson 90.9%   8   21 - 11 11 - 9 21 - 12 11 - 9 +11.7      +7.6 28 +4.2 62 66.2 250 +11.5 43 +9.8 7
56 North Carolina St. 100.0%   11   22 - 14 9 - 11 22 - 15 9 - 11 +9.6      +6.5 40 +3.1 89 69.3 146 +10.2 60 +8.0 9
61 Virginia Tech 1.6%   18 - 14 10 - 10 18 - 14 10 - 10 +9.0      +7.1 31 +1.9 121 68.0 187 +8.5 70 +7.9 10
66 Virginia 45.1%   23 - 10 13 - 7 23 - 11 13 - 7 +8.4      -0.5 197 +8.9 8 55.1 362 +11.9 34 +12.0 3
74 Boston College 0.0%   19 - 15 8 - 12 19 - 15 8 - 12 +7.3      +4.7 68 +2.6 98 67.7 204 +7.3 84 +5.2 12
79 Florida St. 0.0%   17 - 16 10 - 10 17 - 16 10 - 10 +7.0      +3.4 94 +3.6 76 75.5 33 +7.6 78 +8.9 8
85 Syracuse 1.1%   19 - 12 11 - 9 19 - 12 11 - 9 +6.7      +3.6 89 +3.0 92 75.0 37 +10.6 55 +10.4 5
94 Miami (FL) 0.0%   15 - 17 6 - 14 15 - 17 6 - 14 +6.1      +3.7 87 +2.4 106 71.0 99 +5.7 100 +3.7 14
110 Notre Dame 0.0%   13 - 20 7 - 13 13 - 20 7 - 13 +3.9      -1.6 221 +5.5 34 62.3 335 +3.1 120 +4.9 13
115 Georgia Tech 0.0%   14 - 18 7 - 13 14 - 18 7 - 13 +3.3      +2.4 111 +1.0 143 68.5 169 +5.8 98 +5.6 11
179 Louisville 0.0%   8 - 24 3 - 17 8 - 24 3 - 17 -0.9      -0.1 184 -0.8 198 72.9 64 -2.9 221 -1.3 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
North Carolina 1.0 100.0
Duke 2.0 100.0
Wake Forest 5.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 4.0 100.0
Clemson 5.0 100.0
North Carolina St. 10.0 100.0
Virginia Tech 8.0 100.0
Virginia 3.0 100.0
Boston College 11.0 100.0
Florida St. 8.0 100.0
Syracuse 5.0 100.0
Miami (FL) 14.0 100.0
Notre Dame 12.0 100.0
Georgia Tech 12.0 100.0
Louisville 15.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
North Carolina 17 - 3 100.0
Duke 15 - 5 100.0
Wake Forest 11 - 9 100.0
Pittsburgh 12 - 8 100.0
Clemson 11 - 9 100.0
North Carolina St. 9 - 11 100.0
Virginia Tech 10 - 10 100.0
Virginia 13 - 7 100.0
Boston College 8 - 12 100.0
Florida St. 10 - 10 100.0
Syracuse 11 - 9 100.0
Miami (FL) 6 - 14 100.0
Notre Dame 7 - 13 100.0
Georgia Tech 7 - 13 100.0
Louisville 3 - 17 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
North Carolina 100.0% 100.0
Duke
Wake Forest
Pittsburgh
Clemson
North Carolina St.
Virginia Tech
Virginia
Boston College
Florida St.
Syracuse
Miami (FL)
Notre Dame
Georgia Tech
Louisville


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
North Carolina 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2   27.7 59.3 12.5 0.5 100.0%
Duke 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 4   1.2 8.3 30.2 50.5 9.4 0.2 0.2 99.8%
Wake Forest 12.4% 0.0% 12.4% 0.0 0.2 3.3 8.9 0.0 87.6 12.4%
Pittsburgh 41.9% 0.0% 41.9% 0.0 0.2 2.7 8.5 20.8 9.7 0.0 58.1 41.9%
Clemson 90.9% 0.0% 90.9% 8   2.0 15.6 31.0 30.1 11.1 1.2 0.0 9.1 90.9%
North Carolina St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 11   0.0 1.9 84.2 13.8
Virginia Tech 1.6% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0 1.5 0.1 98.4 1.6%
Virginia 45.1% 0.0% 45.1% 0.0 0.0 0.9 5.0 18.5 20.6 0.0 54.9 45.1%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Syracuse 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0 1.0 0.1 98.9 1.1%
Miami (FL) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Louisville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
North Carolina 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.9% 68.2% 39.7% 19.7% 9.1% 4.0%
Duke 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 90.1% 62.2% 29.5% 14.6% 6.5% 2.8%
Wake Forest 12.4% 11.2% 7.3% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 41.9% 19.4% 32.7% 16.2% 4.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Clemson 90.9% 0.1% 90.8% 46.3% 12.4% 4.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
North Carolina St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 38.5% 10.7% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 1.6% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia 45.1% 31.1% 25.8% 9.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 1.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.9 0.0 2.0 28.0 47.2 20.8 2.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.6 0.0 3.6 45.5 41.1 9.3 0.4 0.0
2nd Round 99.9% 3.0 0.1 3.2 26.0 42.6 23.5 4.4 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 92.1% 1.6 7.9 35.5 45.0 10.7 0.8 0.1
Elite Eight 63.6% 0.8 36.4 49.0 13.8 0.8 0.0
Final Four 34.1% 0.4 65.9 31.4 2.7 0.0
Final Game 15.8% 0.2 84.2 15.4 0.4
Champion 7.0% 0.1 93.0 7.0