Preseason Rankings
Big Ten
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Purdue 94.2%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 15 - 5 +18.5      +10.0 2 +8.4 5 61.9 330 0.0 1 0.0 1
5 Michigan St. 88.1%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 8 14 - 6 +16.7      +8.6 12 +8.1 11 63.0 308 0.0 1 0.0 1
21 Illinois 67.6%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +13.1      +6.7 28 +6.4 27 73.4 48 0.0 1 0.0 1
28 Wisconsin 63.9%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 9 +12.4      +4.3 58 +8.1 13 60.5 343 0.0 1 0.0 1
29 Maryland 62.0%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 9 +12.4      +5.7 37 +6.6 22 62.5 320 0.0 1 0.0 1
38 Ohio St. 54.5%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 9 +11.1      +6.8 27 +4.4 62 65.6 246 0.0 1 0.0 1
39 Indiana 53.1%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +11.0      +5.4 43 +5.7 38 69.1 150 0.0 1 0.0 1
42 Iowa 48.2%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +10.7      +9.3 7 +1.4 128 73.0 53 0.0 1 0.0 1
47 Northwestern 43.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 9 - 11 +10.0      +4.0 67 +6.0 35 63.1 306 0.0 1 0.0 1
48 Michigan 43.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 11 +9.8      +5.1 46 +4.7 53 68.6 163 0.0 1 0.0 1
51 Rutgers 40.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 9 - 11 +9.6      +2.0 116 +7.5 16 65.6 253 0.0 1 0.0 1
67 Nebraska 29.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 8 - 12 +8.0      +4.2 63 +3.8 69 67.2 201 0.0 1 0.0 1
76 Penn St. 20.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 7 - 13 +6.9      +3.8 71 +3.1 89 62.6 318 0.0 1 0.0 1
113 Minnesota 7.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 17 6 - 14 +3.7      +1.6 130 +2.1 109 64.7 274 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Purdue 2.9 39.7 19.7 12.0 8.1 5.8 4.4 3.3 2.4 1.8 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1
Michigan St. 3.6 27.5 20.6 13.6 10.1 7.2 5.6 4.2 3.3 2.7 2.0 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.2
Illinois 6.0 9.2 10.2 10.3 10.3 9.6 8.9 8.2 7.5 6.5 5.9 5.0 4.0 2.9 1.4
Wisconsin 6.4 7.8 9.1 9.7 9.8 9.1 9.1 8.3 7.7 7.1 6.2 5.6 4.7 3.6 2.2
Maryland 6.2 8.6 9.8 10.1 9.9 9.2 8.7 8.3 7.5 6.8 5.9 5.3 4.5 3.3 2.0
Ohio St. 6.5 6.9 8.8 9.5 9.6 9.0 9.1 8.5 7.8 7.1 6.4 5.8 4.7 4.0 2.7
Indiana 6.9 5.7 7.4 8.5 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.5 8.5 8.0 7.3 6.2 5.6 4.8 3.3
Iowa 7.2 4.3 6.4 7.9 8.5 8.5 8.9 8.7 8.7 8.3 7.7 7.0 6.2 5.3 3.7
Northwestern 7.8 3.6 5.2 6.3 7.4 7.9 8.2 8.4 8.7 8.7 8.5 8.2 7.3 6.6 4.9
Michigan 8.0 3.3 4.5 6.0 6.9 7.1 8.0 8.0 8.5 8.8 8.9 8.7 8.6 7.7 5.2
Rutgers 8.2 3.0 4.3 5.6 6.8 7.1 7.6 7.7 8.5 8.8 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.2 5.6
Nebraska 8.7 2.0 3.4 4.5 5.4 6.4 6.9 7.6 8.2 9.0 9.1 10.0 9.7 9.8 8.1
Penn St. 9.7 1.1 2.1 3.1 3.7 4.7 5.7 6.4 7.3 8.0 9.3 10.3 11.6 13.5 13.0
Minnesota 11.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.2 3.0 3.8 4.8 5.8 7.9 9.9 13.3 17.7 28.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Purdue 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.7 4.1 5.6 7.3 9.1 11.1 12.3 12.7 12.5 9.8 6.3 2.9
Michigan St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.7 4.0 5.4 7.1 9.2 10.6 11.7 12.4 11.3 9.8 6.9 3.8 1.3
Illinois 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.0 4.5 5.8 7.6 9.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 9.9 8.7 6.7 4.8 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.2
Wisconsin 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.3 3.4 5.0 6.7 8.0 9.4 10.2 10.8 10.3 9.2 7.6 6.1 4.3 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.1
Maryland 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.3 4.6 6.3 8.0 9.2 10.0 10.4 10.8 9.2 7.7 6.4 4.8 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.2
Ohio St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.5 3.6 5.2 7.1 8.4 9.6 10.2 10.4 10.0 8.9 7.4 6.0 4.2 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1
Indiana 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.9 4.5 5.8 7.4 9.4 10.3 10.4 10.5 9.3 8.5 6.7 4.8 3.2 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1
Iowa 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.3 4.8 7.0 7.9 9.7 10.6 10.6 10.3 9.5 7.8 6.0 4.2 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1
Northwestern 9 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.2 5.9 8.0 9.1 10.3 10.9 10.3 9.6 8.5 6.5 4.9 3.4 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Michigan 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.0 5.0 6.5 8.5 9.7 10.8 10.2 10.1 9.1 7.8 6.0 4.5 2.9 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Rutgers 9 - 11 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.1 5.2 7.3 8.7 9.9 10.8 10.3 9.7 8.8 7.6 5.8 4.3 2.6 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0
Nebraska 8 - 12 0.3 1.0 2.3 4.3 6.5 8.1 9.7 10.8 10.9 10.4 8.9 8.1 6.3 4.8 3.2 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Penn St. 7 - 13 0.7 2.0 4.0 6.8 8.9 9.8 11.0 11.2 10.2 9.0 7.7 6.3 4.7 3.2 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 6 - 14 2.2 5.5 8.7 11.6 12.6 12.2 11.7 9.8 8.0 6.0 4.3 3.1 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Purdue 39.7% 29.4 8.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 27.5% 18.9 6.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Illinois 9.2% 5.7 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 7.8% 4.7 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Maryland 8.6% 5.2 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Ohio St. 6.9% 4.0 2.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Indiana 5.7% 3.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Iowa 4.3% 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 3.6% 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Michigan 3.3% 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 3.0% 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 2.0% 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Purdue 94.2% 22.5% 71.7% 1   32.0 20.3 12.4 8.8 6.0 4.5 3.4 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.8 92.5%
Michigan St. 88.1% 16.3% 71.9% 1   18.2 15.3 11.8 9.8 7.8 6.6 5.6 4.4 3.4 2.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.9 85.8%
Illinois 67.6% 8.6% 59.0% 5   5.8 6.8 7.7 7.4 7.4 7.0 6.7 5.9 4.8 4.1 3.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 32.4 64.6%
Wisconsin 63.9% 8.0% 55.9% 6   5.0 6.3 7.5 6.8 7.0 7.1 6.3 5.0 3.8 4.1 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 36.1 60.8%
Maryland 62.0% 7.4% 54.6% 7   4.3 5.2 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.6 5.5 5.0 3.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 38.0 58.9%
Ohio St. 54.5% 5.7% 48.8% 8   2.6 3.7 4.8 5.1 5.5 5.4 5.8 6.1 5.8 5.0 3.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 45.5 51.7%
Indiana 53.1% 5.7% 47.4% 7   2.6 3.5 4.6 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.5 3.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 46.9 50.2%
Iowa 48.2% 5.5% 42.7% 9   1.8 2.7 3.8 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.6 5.5 5.0 5.0 3.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 51.8 45.2%
Northwestern 43.1% 4.7% 38.4% 1.3 2.1 3.0 3.3 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.3 5.0 5.0 3.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 56.9 40.3%
Michigan 43.8% 4.5% 39.3% 1.6 2.6 3.7 4.0 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.3 3.8 3.7 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 56.2 41.1%
Rutgers 40.3% 4.4% 35.9% 1.2 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.8 4.3 4.8 5.0 4.3 4.7 3.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 59.7 37.6%
Nebraska 29.5% 3.1% 26.4% 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.7 3.4 4.1 3.9 4.3 3.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 70.5 27.2%
Penn St. 20.5% 2.4% 18.1% 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.9 3.0 3.2 2.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 79.5 18.6%
Minnesota 7.6% 1.2% 6.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 92.4 6.4%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Purdue 94.2% 1.5% 93.5% 82.4% 58.4% 37.6% 22.8% 13.5% 7.9%
Michigan St. 88.1% 2.0% 87.1% 71.7% 46.0% 27.1% 15.2% 8.4% 4.6%
Illinois 67.6% 3.9% 65.7% 47.4% 25.5% 12.5% 6.0% 2.9% 1.4%
Wisconsin 63.9% 4.6% 61.7% 43.4% 22.3% 10.8% 5.2% 2.4% 1.0%
Maryland 62.0% 4.2% 60.0% 41.4% 21.0% 9.9% 4.6% 2.2% 0.9%
Ohio St. 54.5% 4.5% 52.3% 33.6% 16.0% 7.2% 3.2% 1.3% 0.5%
Indiana 53.1% 4.7% 50.8% 33.1% 15.6% 7.0% 3.1% 1.4% 0.6%
Iowa 48.2% 4.6% 46.0% 29.2% 13.4% 6.1% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4%
Northwestern 43.1% 4.5% 40.9% 25.4% 11.2% 4.8% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4%
Michigan 43.8% 5.1% 41.3% 25.9% 11.8% 5.1% 2.2% 0.9% 0.4%
Rutgers 40.3% 4.2% 38.3% 23.3% 10.3% 4.5% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3%
Nebraska 29.5% 3.7% 27.6% 15.3% 5.9% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2%
Penn St. 20.5% 3.2% 19.0% 10.1% 3.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Minnesota 7.6% 1.7% 6.7% 3.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.2 0.0 0.1 1.3 7.3 20.5 31.3 25.9 10.8 2.5 0.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 6.9 0.0 0.2 2.2 10.2 24.1 31.8 22.2 7.9 1.4 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 4.9 0.0 0.3 2.7 11.7 24.7 30.3 20.4 7.8 2.0 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 97.8% 2.6 2.2 14.2 30.9 31.0 16.2 4.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 82.4% 1.4 17.6 40.5 30.8 9.6 1.3 0.1 0.0
Final Four 56.7% 0.7 43.3 43.7 11.9 1.1 0.0
Final Game 33.9% 0.4 66.1 31.2 2.6
Champion 18.8% 0.2 81.2 18.8