Preseason Rankings
Illinois
Big Ten
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.1#21
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.4#48
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#28
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#27
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 5.8% 5.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 12.7% 12.7% 0.7%
Top 4 Seed 27.7% 27.8% 3.1%
Top 6 Seed 42.0% 42.2% 11.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.6% 67.8% 31.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.6% 64.8% 28.6%
Average Seed 5.6 5.6 7.9
.500 or above 83.7% 83.9% 47.1%
.500 or above in Conference 66.8% 67.0% 34.1%
Conference Champion 9.2% 9.3% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 2.8% 11.0%
First Four3.9% 3.9% 5.0%
First Round65.7% 65.9% 29.2%
Second Round47.4% 47.6% 15.2%
Sweet Sixteen25.5% 25.6% 6.3%
Elite Eight12.5% 12.5% 2.2%
Final Four6.0% 6.0% 1.4%
Championship Game2.9% 3.0% 0.7%
National Champion1.4% 1.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Home) - 99.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 9
Quad 25 - 210 - 11
Quad 33 - 113 - 11
Quad 46 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 332   Eastern Illinois W 87-60 99%    
  Nov 10, 2023 256   Oakland W 87-66 98%    
  Nov 14, 2023 9   Marquette W 77-76 52%    
  Nov 17, 2023 310   Valparaiso W 85-61 99%    
  Nov 19, 2023 321   Southern W 88-63 99%    
  Nov 24, 2023 317   Western Illinois W 86-61 99%    
  Dec 02, 2023 51   @ Rutgers W 70-69 52%    
  Dec 04, 2023 25   Florida Atlantic W 76-75 52%    
  Dec 09, 2023 7   @ Tennessee L 66-72 30%    
  Dec 17, 2023 110   Colgate W 82-70 86%    
  Dec 22, 2023 52   Missouri W 80-76 62%    
  Dec 29, 2023 314   Fairleigh Dickinson W 91-66 98%    
  Jan 02, 2024 47   Northwestern W 73-67 70%    
  Jan 05, 2024 2   @ Purdue L 67-75 24%    
  Jan 11, 2024 5   Michigan St. L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 14, 2024 29   Maryland W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 18, 2024 48   @ Michigan W 75-74 51%    
  Jan 21, 2024 51   Rutgers W 73-66 71%    
  Jan 24, 2024 47   @ Northwestern W 70-69 50%    
  Jan 27, 2024 39   Indiana W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 30, 2024 38   @ Ohio St. L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 04, 2024 67   Nebraska W 77-69 76%    
  Feb 10, 2024 5   @ Michigan St. L 67-74 30%    
  Feb 13, 2024 48   Michigan W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 17, 2024 29   @ Maryland L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 21, 2024 76   @ Penn St. W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 24, 2024 42   Iowa W 83-78 67%    
  Feb 28, 2024 113   Minnesota W 77-65 84%    
  Mar 02, 2024 28   @ Wisconsin L 66-68 43%    
  Mar 05, 2024 2   Purdue L 70-72 42%    
  Mar 10, 2024 42   @ Iowa L 80-81 49%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.4 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.2 9.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 2.8 3.4 2.0 0.7 0.1 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 3.8 1.6 0.3 0.1 10.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.8 3.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.3 3.9 1.4 0.2 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.8 1.4 0.2 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 3.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 2.2 2.5 0.7 0.1 5.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.0 4.5 5.8 7.6 9.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 9.9 8.7 6.7 4.8 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 94.1% 1.4    1.3 0.2 0.0
17-3 75.8% 2.4    1.8 0.6 0.0
16-4 50.7% 2.4    1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0
15-5 22.7% 1.5    0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.7% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 5.7 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 47.8% 52.2% 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 34.1% 65.9% 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.5% 100.0% 26.9% 73.1% 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.2% 100.0% 23.9% 76.1% 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.8% 100.0% 18.9% 81.1% 2.1 1.4 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.7% 100.0% 15.8% 84.2% 2.9 0.8 1.8 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.7% 100.0% 13.2% 86.8% 3.9 0.3 1.1 2.3 2.3 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 9.9% 99.1% 9.7% 89.4% 5.1 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.1 2.4 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
12-8 10.5% 96.6% 8.2% 88.4% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.4 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.4 96.2%
11-9 10.4% 88.8% 6.3% 82.5% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.0 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.2 88.0%
10-10 10.3% 71.3% 5.2% 66.0% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.0 69.7%
9-11 9.2% 40.1% 4.2% 35.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 37.4%
8-12 7.6% 15.2% 2.7% 12.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 12.8%
7-13 5.8% 4.8% 3.0% 1.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.5 1.9%
6-14 4.5% 2.5% 2.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.4
5-15 3.0% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.9
4-16 1.7% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
3-17 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 67.6% 8.6% 59.0% 5.6 5.8 6.8 7.7 7.4 7.4 7.0 6.7 5.9 4.8 4.1 3.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 32.4 64.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 99.3 0.7