Preseason Rankings
Sun Belt
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
121 James Madison 16.7%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 7 +2.7      +2.2 112 +0.5 156 75.3 30 0.0 1 0.0 1
135 Marshall 14.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 7 +2.0      +2.2 113 -0.2 181 78.3 14 0.0 1 0.0 1
152 Southern Miss 11.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 11 - 7 +1.1      -0.1 179 +1.2 135 70.9 110 0.0 1 0.0 1
153 Appalachian St. 10.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 8 +1.1      -1.3 222 +2.4 103 63.6 297 0.0 1 0.0 1
176 Louisiana 8.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 13 10 - 8 -0.2      +0.5 155 -0.7 195 70.2 127 0.0 1 0.0 1
177 South Alabama 7.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 10 - 8 -0.2      -0.9 212 +0.7 149 64.8 271 0.0 1 0.0 1
180 Old Dominion 7.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 9 - 9 -0.5      -1.9 243 +1.5 126 63.4 300 0.0 1 0.0 1
193 Texas St. 5.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 9 -1.3      -1.9 242 +0.7 152 60.9 339 0.0 1 0.0 1
198 Arkansas St. 5.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 9 -1.4      -1.0 217 -0.4 186 60.4 344 0.0 1 0.0 1
206 Georgia St. 5.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 8 - 10 -2.0      -1.5 231 -0.5 189 67.4 192 0.0 1 0.0 1
218 Troy 4.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 8 - 10 -2.6      -2.6 259 0.0 172 69.0 153 0.0 1 0.0 1
229 Georgia Southern 3.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 10 -3.5      -3.3 277 -0.1 177 66.9 208 0.0 1 0.0 1
270 Coastal Carolina 1.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 16 6 - 12 -5.9      -1.7 240 -4.2 301 69.9 134 0.0 1 0.0 1
287 Louisiana Monroe 1.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 18 6 - 12 -6.8      -4.3 305 -2.5 254 65.4 255 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
James Madison 4.6 20.4 14.6 12.1 10.0 8.7 7.3 6.1 5.3 4.6 3.6 2.9 2.2 1.5 0.7
Marshall 4.9 18.5 13.6 11.3 9.9 8.7 7.8 6.5 5.8 5.0 4.2 3.3 2.6 1.8 1.0
Southern Miss 5.3 15.6 12.9 10.9 9.8 8.8 7.7 7.0 6.2 5.6 4.5 3.9 3.2 2.3 1.4
Appalachian St. 5.5 14.5 11.8 10.7 9.7 8.8 8.1 7.3 6.5 5.6 5.1 4.3 3.7 2.5 1.6
Louisiana 6.3 10.7 9.5 9.0 8.6 8.6 8.1 7.8 7.6 6.9 6.3 5.8 4.7 3.8 2.6
South Alabama 6.5 9.2 9.1 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.2 7.9 7.6 7.1 6.7 5.9 5.3 4.1 2.6
Old Dominion 6.6 9.0 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.2 8.2 7.9 7.9 7.8 6.8 6.1 5.5 4.4 2.9
Texas St. 6.9 7.4 7.7 8.1 8.0 8.4 8.2 7.8 7.9 7.7 7.3 6.8 6.1 5.1 3.6
Arkansas St. 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.2 8.1 8.2 7.8 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.1 7.0 6.2 4.9 3.7
Georgia St. 7.8 4.9 5.5 6.3 6.5 7.0 7.6 7.7 8.1 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.3 7.3 5.2
Troy 7.8 5.1 5.8 6.8 6.8 7.3 7.3 7.9 8.0 7.9 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.3 6.0
Georgia Southern 8.6 3.3 3.9 4.7 5.4 6.0 6.7 7.4 7.9 8.7 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.5 8.3
Coastal Carolina 10.2 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.3 3.5 4.5 5.0 6.3 7.4 8.5 10.4 12.4 15.2 17.8
Louisiana Monroe 10.6 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.4 3.2 4.0 4.9 5.6 6.7 8.3 10.6 12.8 16.8 20.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
James Madison 11 - 7 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.0 6.9 8.7 10.6 11.5 12.0 11.4 9.9 7.7 5.1 2.6 0.8
Marshall 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.1 5.9 7.7 9.1 10.8 11.4 11.4 10.6 9.4 6.9 4.6 2.1 0.7
Southern Miss 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.2 4.8 6.4 8.2 9.9 11.1 11.2 11.2 9.9 8.5 6.1 3.9 1.8 0.6
Appalachian St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.2 3.5 5.2 7.0 8.6 10.1 11.3 11.4 10.8 9.5 7.6 5.9 3.4 1.5 0.3
Louisiana 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.8 3.2 4.9 6.7 8.5 10.3 11.0 11.1 10.3 9.7 7.6 6.0 4.0 2.5 1.0 0.2
South Alabama 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.5 5.3 7.2 8.8 10.0 11.2 11.5 10.4 9.3 7.4 5.5 3.6 1.9 0.9 0.2
Old Dominion 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.7 5.6 7.7 9.1 10.6 11.3 11.0 10.3 8.7 7.0 5.4 3.5 1.7 0.8 0.2
Texas St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.3 6.1 8.0 10.0 10.7 11.1 11.1 9.7 8.3 6.5 4.6 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.1
Arkansas St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.3 6.3 8.2 9.6 10.7 10.9 10.8 10.0 8.2 6.7 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.1
Georgia St. 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.1 4.1 6.1 8.1 9.8 11.1 11.4 10.9 9.7 8.3 6.5 4.8 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1
Troy 8 - 10 0.3 1.0 2.2 4.0 6.0 7.8 9.6 10.5 10.8 11.0 9.7 8.3 7.0 5.1 3.2 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.1
Georgia Southern 8 - 10 0.4 1.5 3.1 5.7 7.6 9.8 11.3 11.5 11.1 10.3 8.5 6.9 5.1 3.3 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Coastal Carolina 6 - 12 1.5 4.0 7.3 9.8 11.6 11.7 12.3 10.4 9.2 7.2 5.4 3.9 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 6 - 12 1.8 4.9 8.3 11.1 12.4 12.9 11.6 10.3 8.3 6.7 4.6 3.1 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
James Madison 20.4% 13.3 5.3 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marshall 18.5% 11.8 5.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss 15.6% 9.7 4.4 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Appalachian St. 14.5% 8.8 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 10.7% 6.4 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Alabama 9.2% 5.4 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Old Dominion 9.0% 5.1 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Texas St. 7.4% 4.2 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 7.3% 4.3 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 4.9% 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Troy 5.1% 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 3.3% 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Coastal Carolina 1.3% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
James Madison 16.7% 15.9% 0.7% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.0 4.1 4.0 2.9 1.6 0.8 83.3 0.9%
Marshall 14.6% 13.9% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.7 3.5 3.5 2.4 1.4 1.1 85.4 0.8%
Southern Miss 11.2% 10.8% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 2.7 2.2 1.3 1.0 88.8 0.5%
Appalachian St. 10.7% 10.2% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.7 2.0 1.3 0.9 89.3 0.5%
Louisiana 8.5% 8.2% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.1 1.1 91.5 0.3%
South Alabama 7.9% 7.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.3 0.9 92.1 0.2%
Old Dominion 7.4% 7.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.9 92.6 0.2%
Texas St. 5.8% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.1 94.2 0.1%
Arkansas St. 5.8% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.8 1.0 94.2 0.2%
Georgia St. 5.0% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 95.0 0.1%
Troy 4.0% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 96.0 0.1%
Georgia Southern 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 96.8 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 98.6 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 98.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
James Madison 16.7% 0.9% 16.3% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 14.6% 1.2% 14.2% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 11.2% 0.9% 10.8% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 10.7% 0.8% 10.3% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 8.5% 0.8% 8.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 7.9% 0.6% 7.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 7.4% 0.8% 7.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 5.8% 0.9% 5.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 5.8% 0.9% 5.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 5.0% 0.7% 4.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 4.0% 0.7% 3.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 3.2% 0.8% 2.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.4% 0.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 1.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 96.7 3.3 0.0
1st Round 96.5% 1.0 3.5 94.2 2.3 0.0
2nd Round 15.8% 0.2 84.2 15.6 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 4.1% 0.0 95.9 4.1 0.0
Elite Eight 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9 0.0
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2 0.0
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0