Preseason Rankings
Seattle
Western Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#126
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.6#89
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#171
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#100
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.2% 16.0% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.0% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.5 12.4 13.6
.500 or above 79.0% 81.2% 53.9%
.500 or above in Conference 75.3% 76.8% 58.1%
Conference Champion 18.2% 19.0% 8.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 2.7% 7.2%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 0.6%
First Round14.9% 15.6% 6.3%
Second Round3.2% 3.4% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.0% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Prairie View (Home) - 92.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 32 - 4
Quad 35 - 57 - 9
Quad 411 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 326   Prairie View W 77-62 92%    
  Nov 11, 2023 225   Montana St. W 74-65 79%    
  Nov 15, 2023 231   Northern Arizona W 77-68 80%    
  Nov 18, 2023 82   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 66-73 27%    
  Nov 22, 2023 354   Idaho W 80-61 95%    
  Nov 26, 2023 241   UC San Diego W 77-67 80%    
  Nov 29, 2023 164   @ Utah Valley L 73-74 47%    
  Dec 02, 2023 226   Southern Utah W 82-73 78%    
  Dec 13, 2023 92   @ San Francisco L 70-76 31%    
  Dec 17, 2023 74   Washington L 72-74 44%    
  Dec 20, 2023 120   Louisiana Tech W 72-69 59%    
  Dec 30, 2023 155   @ UTEP L 68-69 45%    
  Jan 04, 2024 210   Utah Tech W 58-50 74%    
  Jan 06, 2024 186   California Baptist W 70-64 70%    
  Jan 11, 2024 263   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 81-76 67%    
  Jan 13, 2024 200   @ Texas Arlington W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 18, 2024 115   @ Stephen F. Austin L 71-75 38%    
  Jan 20, 2024 93   Grand Canyon W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 27, 2024 164   Utah Valley W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 01, 2024 93   @ Grand Canyon L 67-73 32%    
  Feb 03, 2024 186   @ California Baptist W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 08, 2024 168   Abilene Christian W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 10, 2024 214   Tarleton St. W 73-65 74%    
  Feb 15, 2024 226   @ Southern Utah W 79-76 59%    
  Feb 17, 2024 210   @ Utah Tech W 55-53 55%    
  Feb 22, 2024 115   Stephen F. Austin W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 24, 2024 263   UT Rio Grande Valley W 84-73 82%    
  Feb 29, 2024 200   Texas Arlington W 73-66 71%    
  Mar 07, 2024 168   @ Abilene Christian L 73-74 47%    
  Mar 09, 2024 214   @ Tarleton St. W 70-68 56%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.0 4.4 4.3 2.9 1.4 0.4 18.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.7 4.9 4.3 2.4 0.8 0.1 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.3 4.9 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.5 4.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.3 4.0 1.7 0.2 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.8 3.5 1.3 0.1 8.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.3 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.2 0.9 0.1 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.1 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.0 4.2 6.0 7.5 8.9 9.9 10.6 10.4 10.4 8.3 6.9 5.0 3.0 1.4 0.4 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
18-2 96.5% 2.9    2.7 0.2
17-3 84.5% 4.3    3.4 0.8 0.0
16-4 63.7% 4.4    2.8 1.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 35.7% 3.0    1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 15.0% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.2% 18.2 12.5 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 91.4% 63.2% 28.3% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 76.7%
19-1 1.4% 73.5% 56.5% 17.0% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 39.1%
18-2 3.0% 55.6% 47.6% 8.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 15.2%
17-3 5.0% 41.0% 37.7% 3.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.0 5.3%
16-4 6.9% 30.9% 30.4% 0.5% 12.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.8 0.8%
15-5 8.3% 23.4% 23.2% 0.2% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.4 0.3%
14-6 10.4% 17.2% 17.2% 13.1 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.6
13-7 10.4% 13.3% 13.3% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 9.0
12-8 10.6% 10.8% 10.8% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 9.5
11-9 9.9% 7.6% 7.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 9.2
10-10 8.9% 5.4% 5.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 8.5
9-11 7.5% 3.9% 3.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.2
8-12 6.0% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.9
7-13 4.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.2
6-14 3.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.9
5-15 2.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.0
4-16 1.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.2% 14.4% 0.8% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.2 3.9 3.5 2.4 1.2 0.8 84.8 0.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.2 13.8 7.7 3.1 39.2 18.5 0.8 5.4 11.5