Preseason Rankings
American
Patriot League
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#261
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace59.0#353
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#275
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#241
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.5% 16.4% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.1 15.0
.500 or above 53.0% 83.2% 52.3%
.500 or above in Conference 64.0% 83.2% 63.6%
Conference Champion 9.1% 20.2% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 6.4% 1.8% 6.5%
First Four1.8% 1.5% 1.8%
First Round6.5% 15.1% 6.3%
Second Round0.4% 1.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Villanova (Away) - 2.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 413 - 815 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 20   @ Villanova L 52-74 2%    
  Nov 09, 2023 302   @ William & Mary L 63-64 47%    
  Nov 13, 2023 266   Siena W 65-62 62%    
  Nov 16, 2023 339   NJIT W 68-59 79%    
  Nov 19, 2023 106   @ Georgetown L 62-74 14%    
  Nov 22, 2023 250   Mount St. Mary's W 63-61 59%    
  Nov 29, 2023 219   @ Harvard L 59-65 31%    
  Dec 02, 2023 358   St. Francis (PA) W 72-61 84%    
  Dec 06, 2023 136   @ Saint Joseph's L 62-72 18%    
  Dec 09, 2023 351   @ VMI W 68-64 64%    
  Dec 21, 2023 57   @ Virginia Tech L 57-75 7%    
  Dec 29, 2023 292   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 66-67 46%    
  Jan 03, 2024 274   Lehigh W 69-65 62%    
  Jan 06, 2024 331   @ Bucknell W 66-64 56%    
  Jan 10, 2024 313   @ Boston University W 63-62 50%    
  Jan 13, 2024 300   Army W 68-63 67%    
  Jan 15, 2024 295   @ Loyola Maryland L 63-64 46%    
  Jan 20, 2024 274   @ Lehigh L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 24, 2024 327   Holy Cross W 70-63 72%    
  Jan 27, 2024 110   Colgate L 65-71 31%    
  Jan 31, 2024 293   @ Lafayette L 59-60 46%    
  Feb 03, 2024 331   Bucknell W 69-61 73%    
  Feb 07, 2024 295   Loyola Maryland W 66-61 66%    
  Feb 10, 2024 327   @ Holy Cross W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 14, 2024 277   @ Navy L 60-62 44%    
  Feb 17, 2024 293   Lafayette W 62-57 65%    
  Feb 21, 2024 313   Boston University W 65-59 69%    
  Feb 24, 2024 110   @ Colgate L 62-74 16%    
  Feb 28, 2024 300   @ Army L 65-66 47%    
  Mar 02, 2024 277   Navy W 63-59 62%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.3 2.3 1.8 0.8 0.2 9.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.1 5.0 3.4 1.5 0.2 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.5 4.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.5 3.4 0.8 0.0 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.3 2.4 4.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.1 1.6 0.2 7.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.0 4.7 6.6 8.5 10.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 9.5 7.9 6.0 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 89.2% 1.8    1.4 0.3 0.0
15-3 61.5% 2.3    1.6 0.7 0.0
14-4 38.5% 2.3    1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-5 15.9% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.1% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.1% 9.1 5.6 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 69.9% 68.2% 1.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.4%
17-1 0.8% 48.2% 48.2% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.0% 40.3% 40.3% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.2
15-3 3.8% 28.6% 28.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 2.7
14-4 6.0% 20.6% 20.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 4.8
13-5 7.9% 14.1% 14.1% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 6.8
12-6 9.5% 9.8% 9.8% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 8.6
11-7 11.3% 6.5% 6.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 10.5
10-8 11.3% 4.0% 4.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 10.9
9-9 11.3% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.9
8-10 10.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 10.1
7-11 8.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.4
6-12 6.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.5
5-13 4.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.7
4-14 3.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.0
3-15 1.7% 1.7
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 15.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.2 3.1 92.5 0.0%