Preseason Rankings
Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.2#257
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.5#298
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#304
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#206
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.8% 11.9% 6.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 46.6% 72.7% 42.9%
.500 or above in Conference 53.5% 70.3% 51.1%
Conference Champion 7.8% 14.2% 6.9%
Last Place in Conference 9.8% 4.3% 10.6%
First Four1.6% 1.7% 1.6%
First Round6.0% 11.2% 5.2%
Second Round0.4% 1.0% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston College (Away) - 12.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 52 - 8
Quad 412 - 814 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 103   @ Boston College L 60-72 12%    
  Nov 09, 2023 190   @ Rhode Island L 62-69 25%    
  Nov 17, 2023 125   @ Drexel L 56-67 16%    
  Nov 18, 2023 224   Queens L 70-72 43%    
  Nov 24, 2023 288   New Hampshire W 65-60 66%    
  Dec 01, 2023 148   Iona L 67-70 38%    
  Dec 03, 2023 230   @ Rider L 63-68 34%    
  Dec 06, 2023 68   @ Yale L 57-73 8%    
  Dec 09, 2023 301   @ Sacred Heart L 69-70 47%    
  Dec 17, 2023 298   Wagner W 62-57 67%    
  Dec 21, 2023 314   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 71-70 51%    
  Dec 30, 2023 362   Le Moyne W 75-58 93%    
  Jan 05, 2024 266   @ Siena L 64-66 42%    
  Jan 07, 2024 272   Marist W 65-61 63%    
  Jan 12, 2024 258   @ Niagara L 60-63 40%    
  Jan 14, 2024 269   @ Canisius L 66-68 42%    
  Jan 19, 2024 279   St. Peter's W 61-57 64%    
  Jan 21, 2024 325   @ Manhattan W 66-65 55%    
  Jan 28, 2024 232   Quinnipiac W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 02, 2024 148   @ Iona L 64-73 22%    
  Feb 04, 2024 325   Manhattan W 69-62 73%    
  Feb 08, 2024 230   Rider W 66-65 55%    
  Feb 10, 2024 279   @ St. Peter's L 58-60 44%    
  Feb 16, 2024 258   Niagara W 63-60 60%    
  Feb 18, 2024 250   Mount St. Mary's W 65-62 59%    
  Feb 23, 2024 232   @ Quinnipiac L 67-72 35%    
  Feb 25, 2024 266   Siena W 67-63 62%    
  Mar 01, 2024 272   @ Marist L 62-64 43%    
  Mar 07, 2024 269   Canisius W 69-65 61%    
  Mar 09, 2024 250   @ Mount St. Mary's L 62-65 39%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 7.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.2 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 3.2 3.3 1.9 0.4 0.1 10.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.8 3.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.0 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.9 4.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.4 3.7 1.1 0.1 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.2 3.6 1.2 0.1 9.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.1 2.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 8.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.6 2.3 0.7 0.1 7.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.4 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.5 5.0 6.7 7.8 9.4 10.1 10.5 9.9 8.9 7.5 6.2 4.5 3.1 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 97.0% 0.9    0.8 0.0
17-3 84.4% 1.5    1.3 0.2
16-4 63.9% 2.0    1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 40.7% 1.8    0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 15.9% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 4.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.8% 7.8 5.0 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 91.0% 82.0% 9.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0%
19-1 0.3% 63.3% 63.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.9% 49.1% 49.0% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.1%
17-3 1.8% 36.9% 36.9% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1
16-4 3.1% 27.9% 27.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.2
15-5 4.5% 22.4% 22.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 3.5
14-6 6.2% 14.1% 14.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 5.4
13-7 7.5% 10.7% 10.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 6.7
12-8 8.9% 7.2% 7.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 8.2
11-9 9.9% 5.2% 5.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 9.3
10-10 10.5% 3.6% 3.6% 15.9 0.0 0.3 10.1
9-11 10.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.9
8-12 9.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 9.3
7-13 7.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.8
6-14 6.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.7
5-15 5.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.0
4-16 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.5
3-17 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.2
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.9 2.7 93.2 0.0%