Preseason Rankings
North Dakota
Summit League
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#267
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.2#200
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#224
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#310
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.6% 12.3% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.1 14.9
.500 or above 33.9% 67.5% 32.7%
.500 or above in Conference 48.6% 71.6% 47.8%
Conference Champion 7.0% 16.0% 6.7%
Last Place in Conference 13.8% 5.3% 14.1%
First Four1.4% 2.0% 1.4%
First Round4.9% 11.3% 4.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.9% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Away) - 3.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 410 - 712 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 42   @ Iowa L 68-88 3%    
  Nov 12, 2023 309   Elon W 73-68 69%    
  Nov 20, 2023 188   @ Pacific L 72-80 23%    
  Nov 25, 2023 299   New Orleans W 79-77 56%    
  Nov 26, 2023 315   Eastern Michigan W 77-74 59%    
  Dec 01, 2023 161   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 64-73 21%    
  Dec 03, 2023 202   @ UC Riverside L 67-74 27%    
  Dec 09, 2023 174   Portland L 76-79 41%    
  Dec 16, 2023 210   @ Utah Tech L 52-59 29%    
  Dec 20, 2023 67   @ Nebraska L 63-80 8%    
  Dec 29, 2023 276   St. Thomas W 74-70 62%    
  Dec 31, 2023 151   @ South Dakota St. L 67-77 20%    
  Jan 03, 2024 251   Northern Colorado W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 06, 2024 231   @ Northern Arizona L 71-76 33%    
  Jan 11, 2024 296   @ Nebraska Omaha L 73-75 45%    
  Jan 13, 2024 286   @ UMKC L 65-67 44%    
  Jan 18, 2024 175   Oral Roberts L 76-79 41%    
  Jan 20, 2024 307   Denver W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 27, 2024 276   @ St. Thomas L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 01, 2024 304   @ South Dakota L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 03, 2024 201   North Dakota St. L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 08, 2024 296   Nebraska Omaha W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 10, 2024 286   UMKC W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 15, 2024 307   @ Denver L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 17, 2024 175   @ Oral Roberts L 73-82 24%    
  Feb 24, 2024 201   @ North Dakota St. L 70-77 29%    
  Feb 29, 2024 151   South Dakota St. L 70-74 38%    
  Mar 02, 2024 304   South Dakota W 74-69 66%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 7.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.8 2.4 0.7 0.1 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.8 4.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 11.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.2 5.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 5.5 5.1 1.4 0.1 13.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.2 4.9 1.1 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 5.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.0 3.2 0.7 0.0 10.7 8th
9th 0.3 1.4 2.3 2.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.7 9th
Total 0.3 1.4 2.7 5.4 7.6 10.1 11.4 12.6 12.4 11.1 8.7 7.0 4.6 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
14-2 92.7% 1.3    1.1 0.2
13-3 73.8% 2.1    1.3 0.7 0.1
12-4 39.0% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
11-5 14.5% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 7.0% 7.0 4.0 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 67.0% 62.2% 4.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.9%
15-1 0.5% 50.0% 49.3% 0.8% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5%
14-2 1.4% 38.6% 38.6% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-3 2.9% 29.7% 29.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.0
12-4 4.6% 17.2% 17.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 3.8
11-5 7.0% 12.4% 12.4% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 6.1
10-6 8.7% 9.1% 9.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 7.9
9-7 11.1% 5.1% 5.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 10.5
8-8 12.4% 3.5% 3.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 11.9
7-9 12.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 12.3
6-10 11.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.2
5-11 10.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.1
4-12 7.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.6
3-13 5.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.4
2-14 2.7% 2.7
1-15 1.4% 1.4
0-16 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.2 94.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%