IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Elon
Colonial Athletic
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.1	#309
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.9	#234
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.7	#308

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.4	#278

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.6%	1.1%	0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.2	14.6	15.2

.500 or above	17.8%	46.2%	16.9%
.500 or above in Conference	28.2%	49.8%	27.5%
Conference Champion	0.5%	1.3%	0.5%
Last Place in Conference	13.9%	5.2%	14.2%

First Four	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%
First Round	0.4%	1.0%	0.4%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Away) - 3.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	1 - 6	1 - 10
Quad 4	9 - 8	11 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	64	@ Wake Forest	L	64-83	3%
Nov 09, 2023	239	East Tennessee St.	L	66-67	46%
Nov 12, 2023	267	@ North Dakota	L	68-73	31%
Nov 17, 2023	347	IUPUI	W	70-66	65%
Nov 18, 2023	327	Holy Cross	W	71-70	55%
Nov 19, 2023	189	@ Winthrop	L	66-76	18%
Nov 27, 2023	322	Presbyterian	W	67-63	63%
Dec 03, 2023	182	@ Radford	L	60-71	18%
Dec 10, 2023	119	@ UNC Greensboro	L	59-73	11%
Dec 22, 2023	89	@ South Carolina	L	57-74	8%
Dec 29, 2023	310	Valparaiso	W	70-67	60%
Jan 04, 2024	302	@ William & Mary	L	65-69	38%
Jan 06, 2024	352	N.C. A&T	W	75-67	74%
Jan 11, 2024	80	@ College of Charleston	L	65-83	7%
Jan 13, 2024	125	Drexel	L	60-68	26%
Jan 18, 2024	140	UNC Wilmington	L	63-70	28%
Jan 20, 2024	228	Northeastern	L	66-68	44%
Jan 25, 2024	294	@ Campbell	L	64-68	36%
Jan 27, 2024	312	@ Hampton	L	70-73	41%
Feb 01, 2024	294	Campbell	W	67-65	56%
Feb 03, 2024	352	@ N.C. A&T	W	72-70	55%
Feb 08, 2024	255	Stony Brook	W	66-65	50%
Feb 12, 2024	158	@ Towson	L	60-72	17%
Feb 15, 2024	194	Delaware	L	67-71	37%
Feb 17, 2024	140	@ UNC Wilmington	L	60-73	14%
Feb 22, 2024	228	@ Northeastern	L	63-71	26%
Feb 24, 2024	112	@ Hofstra	L	62-77	11%
Feb 29, 2024	302	William & Mary	W	68-66	58%
Mar 02, 2024	311	Monmouth	W	70-67	60%
Projected Record						11 - 18	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.5	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0				1.4	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.4	1.1	0.8	0.2	0.0					2.6	3rd
4th										0.0	0.5	1.7	1.3	0.4	0.0						3.9	4th
5th									0.0	0.5	2.2	2.1	0.5	0.0							5.3	5th
6th								0.0	0.4	2.3	3.0	0.9	0.1								6.7	6th
7th							0.0	0.3	2.5	3.9	1.5	0.1	0.0								8.4	7th
8th						0.0	0.2	2.1	4.7	2.1	0.3										9.3	8th
9th						0.0	1.7	4.9	3.0	0.4	0.0										10.1	9th
10th					0.1	1.4	5.0	3.9	0.6	0.0											10.9	10th
11th				0.1	1.3	4.6	4.3	1.0	0.0												11.3	11th
12th			0.1	1.2	4.3	4.4	1.3	0.1													11.4	12th
13th		0.1	1.4	3.6	3.5	1.2	0.1	0.0													9.9	13th
14th	0.6	1.8	2.9	2.3	0.8	0.1															8.4	14th

Total	0.6	1.9	4.4	7.1	9.9	11.7	12.6	12.2	11.3	9.3	7.4	5.1	3.3	1.8	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	74.3%	0.1		0.1	0.0
15-3	38.8%	0.1		0.1	0.0	0.0
14-4	19.2%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-5	5.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.3%	0.0				0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.5%	0.5		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																							0.0
17-1	0.0%		2.1%	2.1%		13.0														0.0				0.0
16-2	0.1%		10.5%	10.5%		13.0													0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1
15-3	0.3%		11.1%	11.1%		13.7													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.3
14-4	0.9%		6.5%	6.5%		14.0													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.9
13-5	1.8%		4.0%	4.0%		14.5														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.7
12-6	3.3%		2.0%	2.0%		15.0														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.2
11-7	5.1%		1.5%	1.5%		15.6															0.0	0.0	0.0	5.0
10-8	7.4%		1.3%	1.3%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	7.3
9-9	9.3%		0.5%	0.5%		15.9																0.0	0.0	9.2
8-10	11.3%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																0.0	0.0	11.3
7-11	12.2%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	12.2
6-12	12.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	12.6
5-13	11.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	11.7
4-14	9.9%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	9.9
3-15	7.1%																							7.1
2-16	4.4%																							4.4
1-17	1.9%																							1.9
0-18	0.6%																							0.6

Total	100%		0.6%	0.6%	0.0%	15.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	99.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%