Preseason Rankings
North Dakota St.
Summit League
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#201
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.8#136
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#190
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#216
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.0% 20.3% 10.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.8
.500 or above 57.7% 67.6% 39.4%
.500 or above in Conference 76.6% 81.4% 67.7%
Conference Champion 21.0% 24.7% 13.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 2.7% 6.0%
First Four2.3% 2.1% 2.8%
First Round15.9% 19.3% 9.7%
Second Round1.4% 1.9% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Away) - 65.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 411 - 514 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 319   @ Western Michigan W 73-69 65%    
  Nov 11, 2023 8   @ Creighton L 63-84 3%    
  Nov 14, 2023 173   UC Davis L 74-76 44%    
  Nov 16, 2023 181   @ Montana L 67-71 35%    
  Nov 25, 2023 93   @ Grand Canyon L 65-75 19%    
  Nov 27, 2023 147   @ San Jose St. L 64-70 30%    
  Dec 04, 2023 147   San Jose St. L 66-67 50%    
  Dec 07, 2023 174   Portland W 78-77 55%    
  Dec 17, 2023 209   @ Illinois St. L 68-71 41%    
  Dec 19, 2023 171   @ Southern Illinois L 63-68 34%    
  Dec 29, 2023 304   South Dakota W 76-67 78%    
  Jan 03, 2024 181   Montana W 70-68 56%    
  Jan 06, 2024 169   @ Eastern Washington L 73-78 34%    
  Jan 11, 2024 286   @ UMKC W 67-65 57%    
  Jan 13, 2024 296   @ Nebraska Omaha W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 18, 2024 307   Denver W 80-71 78%    
  Jan 20, 2024 175   Oral Roberts W 78-77 55%    
  Jan 25, 2024 276   @ St. Thomas W 74-72 55%    
  Feb 01, 2024 151   @ South Dakota St. L 69-75 31%    
  Feb 03, 2024 267   @ North Dakota W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 08, 2024 286   UMKC W 70-62 75%    
  Feb 10, 2024 296   Nebraska Omaha W 79-71 76%    
  Feb 15, 2024 175   @ Oral Roberts L 75-80 35%    
  Feb 17, 2024 307   @ Denver W 77-74 61%    
  Feb 22, 2024 276   St. Thomas W 77-69 74%    
  Feb 24, 2024 267   North Dakota W 77-70 71%    
  Feb 29, 2024 304   @ South Dakota W 73-70 60%    
  Mar 02, 2024 151   South Dakota St. W 73-72 51%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.3 5.9 5.2 2.8 0.9 21.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.9 6.8 5.8 2.6 0.4 20.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.6 6.8 3.7 0.9 0.1 16.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.3 5.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.7 4.2 1.3 0.1 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.3 0.9 0.1 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.0 2.1 0.7 0.0 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.7 4.0 6.1 8.6 10.3 11.9 13.3 12.3 10.9 8.6 5.6 2.8 0.9 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
15-1 100.0% 2.8    2.7 0.1
14-2 92.7% 5.2    4.2 0.9 0.0
13-3 69.3% 5.9    3.8 2.0 0.2
12-4 39.3% 4.3    1.9 1.8 0.5 0.0
11-5 12.9% 1.6    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 21.0% 21.0 13.7 5.8 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.9% 71.0% 70.0% 0.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.1%
15-1 2.8% 59.8% 59.4% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 1.1%
14-2 5.6% 47.1% 46.9% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.9 0.3%
13-3 8.6% 37.3% 37.3% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.1 5.4
12-4 10.9% 25.7% 25.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.4 8.1
11-5 12.3% 18.7% 18.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.6 10.0
10-6 13.3% 13.1% 13.1% 15.3 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.8 11.6
9-7 11.9% 8.2% 8.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 11.0
8-8 10.3% 5.4% 5.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 9.7
7-9 8.6% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 8.3
6-10 6.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 6.0
5-11 4.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 4.0
4-12 2.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.6
3-13 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-14 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.9 4.4 4.1 3.7 83.0 0.0%