Preseason Rankings
Montana
Big Sky
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#181
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.1#337
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#148
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#217
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.8% 28.7% 15.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.0 14.1
.500 or above 63.7% 87.8% 61.6%
.500 or above in Conference 77.5% 90.4% 76.3%
Conference Champion 20.9% 34.9% 19.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 0.6% 2.4%
First Four1.7% 0.8% 1.8%
First Round16.1% 28.3% 15.1%
Second Round1.8% 5.2% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 1.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon (Away) - 8.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 411 - 415 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 35   @ Oregon L 60-75 8%    
  Nov 12, 2023 173   UC Davis W 72-70 60%    
  Nov 16, 2023 201   North Dakota St. W 71-67 65%    
  Nov 24, 2023 4   @ Houston L 54-74 3%    
  Nov 29, 2023 79   @ Nevada L 62-72 18%    
  Dec 02, 2023 147   San Jose St. W 64-63 54%    
  Dec 17, 2023 147   @ San Jose St. L 61-66 34%    
  Dec 19, 2023 173   @ UC Davis L 69-73 38%    
  Dec 28, 2023 160   @ Weber St. L 63-67 37%    
  Dec 30, 2023 290   @ Idaho St. W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 03, 2024 201   @ North Dakota St. L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 06, 2024 304   South Dakota W 73-63 80%    
  Jan 11, 2024 251   Northern Colorado W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 13, 2024 231   Northern Arizona W 72-66 69%    
  Jan 20, 2024 225   @ Montana St. L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 22, 2024 160   Weber St. W 66-64 56%    
  Jan 25, 2024 211   @ Portland St. L 73-74 45%    
  Jan 27, 2024 252   @ Sacramento St. W 64-63 54%    
  Feb 01, 2024 354   Idaho W 75-59 90%    
  Feb 03, 2024 169   Eastern Washington W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 08, 2024 231   @ Northern Arizona L 69-70 50%    
  Feb 10, 2024 251   @ Northern Colorado W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 17, 2024 225   Montana St. W 69-63 68%    
  Feb 22, 2024 252   Sacramento St. W 67-60 73%    
  Feb 24, 2024 211   Portland St. W 76-71 65%    
  Feb 29, 2024 169   @ Eastern Washington L 69-73 38%    
  Mar 02, 2024 354   @ Idaho W 72-62 79%    
  Mar 04, 2024 290   Idaho St. W 70-61 78%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 4.9 5.5 4.2 2.1 0.6 20.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.3 6.0 4.0 1.2 0.1 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 5.2 5.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.9 4.1 1.3 0.1 12.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.2 3.7 0.9 0.1 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.6 2.9 0.5 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.5 4.0 5.6 7.8 9.1 11.0 11.8 11.7 10.9 9.2 6.6 4.4 2.1 0.6 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.1    2.1 0.0
16-2 96.8% 4.2    3.8 0.4 0.0
15-3 82.2% 5.5    4.0 1.4 0.0
14-4 53.8% 4.9    2.6 1.9 0.4 0.0
13-5 25.3% 2.8    0.8 1.3 0.5 0.1
12-6 6.4% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.9% 20.9 13.9 5.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 73.4% 68.3% 5.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 16.1%
17-1 2.1% 62.3% 61.4% 0.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 2.2%
16-2 4.4% 49.3% 49.2% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.2 0.2%
15-3 6.6% 39.9% 39.9% 0.0% 13.4 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.0 0.0%
14-4 9.2% 30.4% 30.4% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.1 6.4
13-5 10.9% 21.6% 21.6% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.2 8.6
12-6 11.7% 16.4% 16.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 9.8
11-7 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 10.4
10-8 11.0% 8.5% 8.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 10.1
9-9 9.1% 4.4% 4.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 8.7
8-10 7.8% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.5
7-11 5.6% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 5.5
6-12 4.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 4.0
5-13 2.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 2.4
4-14 1.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.8% 16.7% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.4 4.1 3.7 2.7 83.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.0 100.0