Preseason Rankings
Oakland
Horizon
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.2#256
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.2#128
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#219
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#300
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 11.7% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.2 14.9
.500 or above 23.6% 55.2% 22.6%
.500 or above in Conference 51.8% 75.7% 51.0%
Conference Champion 5.1% 13.1% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 6.4% 1.2% 6.5%
First Four1.2% 0.9% 1.2%
First Round4.0% 11.2% 3.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Away) - 3.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 32 - 52 - 11
Quad 49 - 611 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 38   @ Ohio St. L 64-83 3%    
  Nov 10, 2023 21   @ Illinois L 66-87 2%    
  Nov 14, 2023 235   Bowling Green W 79-77 56%    
  Nov 19, 2023 70   Drake L 65-78 12%    
  Nov 27, 2023 43   @ Xavier L 69-88 5%    
  Nov 29, 2023 265   @ Detroit Mercy L 75-78 42%    
  Dec 02, 2023 305   Purdue Fort Wayne W 78-72 69%    
  Dec 06, 2023 132   Toledo L 78-82 35%    
  Dec 08, 2023 315   @ Eastern Michigan W 77-76 51%    
  Dec 18, 2023 5   @ Michigan St. L 58-83 2%    
  Dec 20, 2023 72   @ Dayton L 59-75 9%    
  Dec 28, 2023 187   @ Cleveland St. L 68-75 26%    
  Dec 31, 2023 212   @ Youngstown St. L 74-80 31%    
  Jan 04, 2024 217   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80-79 51%    
  Jan 06, 2024 340   Green Bay W 76-67 77%    
  Jan 10, 2024 183   Northern Kentucky L 66-68 44%    
  Jan 13, 2024 347   @ IUPUI W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 17, 2024 212   Youngstown St. W 78-77 50%    
  Jan 25, 2024 340   @ Green Bay W 73-70 59%    
  Jan 27, 2024 217   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 77-83 32%    
  Feb 01, 2024 285   Robert Morris W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 03, 2024 187   Cleveland St. L 71-72 45%    
  Feb 08, 2024 183   @ Northern Kentucky L 63-71 26%    
  Feb 10, 2024 131   @ Wright St. L 74-85 19%    
  Feb 14, 2024 305   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 75-76 48%    
  Feb 17, 2024 347   IUPUI W 77-67 80%    
  Feb 22, 2024 285   @ Robert Morris L 70-72 45%    
  Feb 25, 2024 131   Wright St. L 77-82 35%    
  Mar 02, 2024 265   Detroit Mercy W 78-75 61%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 5.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.5 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.4 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.2 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.7 4.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.0 4.5 2.0 0.2 0.0 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.3 4.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.9 3.5 1.2 0.1 11.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.1 3.4 2.6 0.8 0.1 9.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 6.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.4 5.2 7.0 8.7 10.2 10.5 10.5 10.2 9.1 7.3 5.8 4.0 2.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 95.4% 0.7    0.6 0.1
17-3 79.7% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
16-4 53.0% 1.4    0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 28.1% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 7.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.1% 5.1 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 39.2% 39.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 31.3% 31.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.7% 42.4% 42.4% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
17-3 1.3% 30.8% 30.8% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.9
16-4 2.7% 22.0% 22.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.1
15-5 4.0% 13.9% 13.9% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 3.4
14-6 5.8% 12.1% 12.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 5.1
13-7 7.3% 7.6% 7.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 6.7
12-8 9.1% 5.6% 5.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 8.5
11-9 10.2% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.8
10-10 10.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 10.3
9-11 10.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 10.3
8-12 10.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.1
7-13 8.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.6
6-14 7.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.0
5-15 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.2
4-16 3.4% 3.4
3-17 2.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.0
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.7 95.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%