Preseason Rankings
Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#164
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.5#44
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#215
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#131
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.4% 13.9% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 1.1% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.1 12.5 13.6
.500 or above 48.8% 67.5% 40.4%
.500 or above in Conference 61.7% 73.7% 56.4%
Conference Champion 10.3% 15.5% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.7% 3.4% 8.2%
First Four1.3% 1.3% 1.3%
First Round8.9% 13.3% 6.9%
Second Round1.6% 2.8% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Away) - 31.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 66 - 12
Quad 47 - 313 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 117   @ Sam Houston St. L 65-70 31%    
  Nov 15, 2023 156   @ Charlotte L 63-66 38%    
  Nov 19, 2023 152   Southern Miss L 73-74 47%    
  Nov 29, 2023 126   Seattle W 74-73 53%    
  Dec 02, 2023 210   @ Utah Tech L 54-55 49%    
  Dec 05, 2023 160   Weber St. W 70-67 59%    
  Dec 09, 2023 118   @ Oregon St. L 65-70 31%    
  Dec 16, 2023 62   @ Utah L 65-76 16%    
  Dec 20, 2023 84   Liberty L 67-70 40%    
  Dec 29, 2023 54   @ Boise St. L 64-76 16%    
  Jan 04, 2024 186   California Baptist W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 06, 2024 226   Southern Utah W 83-76 72%    
  Jan 11, 2024 200   @ Texas Arlington L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 13, 2024 263   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 81-78 60%    
  Jan 18, 2024 93   @ Grand Canyon L 67-75 26%    
  Jan 20, 2024 210   Utah Tech W 58-52 68%    
  Jan 27, 2024 126   @ Seattle L 71-76 34%    
  Feb 01, 2024 115   @ Stephen F. Austin L 72-78 31%    
  Feb 03, 2024 93   Grand Canyon L 70-72 45%    
  Feb 08, 2024 214   Tarleton St. W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 10, 2024 168   Abilene Christian W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 15, 2024 186   @ California Baptist L 67-69 44%    
  Feb 17, 2024 226   @ Southern Utah W 80-79 53%    
  Feb 22, 2024 263   UT Rio Grande Valley W 84-75 77%    
  Feb 24, 2024 115   Stephen F. Austin W 75-74 51%    
  Mar 02, 2024 200   Texas Arlington W 73-68 66%    
  Mar 07, 2024 214   @ Tarleton St. L 70-71 49%    
  Mar 09, 2024 168   @ Abilene Christian L 73-76 41%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 2.6 2.2 1.5 0.5 0.2 10.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.7 3.0 1.5 0.4 0.1 11.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 4.3 2.6 0.7 0.1 11.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.6 4.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 4.0 4.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.4 3.9 1.4 0.1 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.3 3.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.0 3.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.0 1.5 0.4 0.1 5.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.1 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.9 5.1 6.8 8.3 9.1 10.4 10.1 9.7 9.2 7.8 5.8 4.1 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 96.7% 1.5    1.3 0.1
17-3 84.3% 2.2    1.7 0.5 0.0
16-4 62.1% 2.6    1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 35.7% 2.1    0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0
14-6 14.2% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.3% 10.3 6.5 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 84.2% 53.5% 30.7% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.0%
19-1 0.5% 70.1% 57.4% 12.7% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 29.8%
18-2 1.5% 51.8% 40.6% 11.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 18.9%
17-3 2.6% 36.1% 32.1% 4.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 5.9%
16-4 4.1% 26.7% 26.0% 0.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.0 0.9%
15-5 5.8% 21.1% 21.0% 0.1% 12.7 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.1%
14-6 7.8% 16.1% 16.0% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.5 0.1%
13-7 9.2% 10.9% 10.9% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 8.2
12-8 9.7% 8.8% 8.8% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 8.8
11-9 10.1% 6.8% 6.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 9.4
10-10 10.4% 4.5% 4.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.9
9-11 9.1% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 8.8
8-12 8.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.1
7-13 6.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 6.7
6-14 5.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.1
5-15 3.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.9
4-16 2.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-17 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-18 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 9.4% 9.0% 0.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.0 2.0 1.3 1.1 1.4 90.6 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.4 25.0 3.1 25.0 25.0 21.9
Lose Out 0.0%