Preseason Rankings
Western Carolina
Southern
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#205
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.6#165
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#173
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#237
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.6% 11.5% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.5 14.3
.500 or above 56.0% 76.9% 48.9%
.500 or above in Conference 62.9% 75.7% 58.5%
Conference Champion 8.8% 13.7% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 1.4% 5.1%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 0.9%
First Round7.3% 11.2% 5.9%
Second Round0.8% 1.5% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Notre Dame (Away) - 25.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 33 - 64 - 9
Quad 410 - 514 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 133   @ Notre Dame L 67-74 25%    
  Nov 13, 2023 137   @ Middle Tennessee L 68-75 27%    
  Nov 18, 2023 271   McNeese St. W 76-69 74%    
  Nov 26, 2023 223   North Alabama W 76-72 65%    
  Nov 28, 2023 289   @ Tennessee Tech W 73-71 57%    
  Dec 02, 2023 195   @ Gardner-Webb L 67-71 37%    
  Dec 05, 2023 278   @ High Point W 79-78 54%    
  Dec 09, 2023 170   UNC Asheville W 73-72 54%    
  Dec 16, 2023 273   @ South Carolina Upstate W 73-72 54%    
  Dec 19, 2023 87   @ Vanderbilt L 67-78 18%    
  Jan 03, 2024 320   @ The Citadel W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 06, 2024 242   Wofford W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 10, 2024 239   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 13, 2024 237   @ Mercer L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 17, 2024 165   Samford W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 20, 2024 104   @ Furman L 71-80 22%    
  Jan 24, 2024 119   UNC Greensboro L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 27, 2024 351   VMI W 79-65 87%    
  Jan 31, 2024 197   Chattanooga W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 03, 2024 242   @ Wofford L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 07, 2024 320   The Citadel W 77-67 79%    
  Feb 10, 2024 237   Mercer W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 14, 2024 165   @ Samford L 72-77 33%    
  Feb 17, 2024 239   East Tennessee St. W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 21, 2024 119   @ UNC Greensboro L 65-73 26%    
  Feb 24, 2024 351   @ VMI W 76-68 73%    
  Feb 28, 2024 104   Furman L 74-77 40%    
  Mar 02, 2024 197   @ Chattanooga L 72-76 38%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.3 2.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 8.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.8 4.1 2.8 0.9 0.1 11.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.3 4.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.2 4.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 13.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.4 4.5 1.1 0.1 13.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.9 3.5 0.9 0.0 12.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.3 2.7 0.5 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 3.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 8.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.8 0.7 0.1 5.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.3 4.9 6.8 8.8 10.3 11.6 12.0 10.9 9.4 7.6 5.4 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 93.2% 1.7    1.5 0.2
15-3 73.7% 2.4    1.6 0.8 0.0
14-4 41.7% 2.3    1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-5 15.9% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 5.2 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 71.5% 63.3% 8.2% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.3%
17-1 0.7% 48.8% 47.3% 1.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 3.0%
16-2 1.8% 42.6% 41.4% 1.1% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0%
15-3 3.3% 30.7% 30.5% 0.2% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.3 0.3%
14-4 5.4% 21.1% 21.1% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.3
13-5 7.6% 15.9% 15.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 6.4
12-6 9.4% 10.4% 10.4% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 8.4
11-7 10.9% 7.0% 7.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 10.1
10-8 12.0% 4.7% 4.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 11.5
9-9 11.6% 3.0% 3.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 11.3
8-10 10.3% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.1
7-11 8.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 8.7
6-12 6.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 6.7
5-13 4.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.9
4-14 3.3% 3.3
3-15 1.8% 1.8
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.6% 7.6% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.3 92.4 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 95.7% 5.6 34.8 60.9