Preseason Rankings
Wright St.
Horizon
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#131
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.6#21
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#96
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#190
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 1.2% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.7% 43.5% 29.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 1.2% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.3 12.5 13.6
.500 or above 87.0% 96.2% 84.4%
.500 or above in Conference 93.4% 97.4% 92.3%
Conference Champion 40.6% 52.9% 37.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four1.3% 0.6% 1.5%
First Round32.2% 43.2% 29.0%
Second Round5.0% 8.8% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 2.6% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Away) - 22.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 34 - 34 - 6
Quad 414 - 318 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 71   @ Colorado St. L 73-81 22%    
  Nov 14, 2023 132   Toledo W 85-82 61%    
  Nov 16, 2023 39   @ Indiana L 71-83 15%    
  Nov 20, 2023 176   Louisiana W 80-78 59%    
  Nov 29, 2023 347   IUPUI W 85-67 94%    
  Dec 02, 2023 149   @ Davidson L 73-75 44%    
  Dec 12, 2023 172   Western Kentucky W 79-74 69%    
  Dec 19, 2023 260   Miami (OH) W 83-72 82%    
  Dec 29, 2023 340   @ Green Bay W 80-70 82%    
  Dec 31, 2023 217   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 85-83 57%    
  Jan 04, 2024 187   Cleveland St. W 78-72 70%    
  Jan 06, 2024 305   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 82-75 73%    
  Jan 10, 2024 285   @ Robert Morris W 77-71 69%    
  Jan 12, 2024 212   @ Youngstown St. W 82-80 56%    
  Jan 18, 2024 340   Green Bay W 83-67 91%    
  Jan 20, 2024 217   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 88-80 75%    
  Jan 25, 2024 187   @ Cleveland St. W 76-75 50%    
  Jan 28, 2024 347   @ IUPUI W 82-70 84%    
  Feb 01, 2024 212   Youngstown St. W 85-77 74%    
  Feb 04, 2024 183   @ Northern Kentucky W 70-69 50%    
  Feb 08, 2024 265   Detroit Mercy W 85-74 81%    
  Feb 10, 2024 256   Oakland W 85-74 81%    
  Feb 17, 2024 285   Robert Morris W 80-68 84%    
  Feb 22, 2024 265   @ Detroit Mercy W 82-77 66%    
  Feb 25, 2024 256   @ Oakland W 82-77 65%    
  Feb 28, 2024 305   Purdue Fort Wayne W 85-72 86%    
  Mar 02, 2024 183   Northern Kentucky W 73-67 69%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.0 7.9 10.0 9.0 5.9 2.4 40.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.0 6.6 4.7 1.8 0.3 20.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.6 4.0 1.9 0.4 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.4 2.6 0.8 0.1 8.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.8 2.6 4.2 5.8 7.7 9.6 11.1 12.6 13.0 11.8 9.3 5.9 2.4 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.4    2.4
19-1 100.0% 5.9    5.8 0.1
18-2 96.3% 9.0    8.0 0.9 0.0
17-3 84.6% 10.0    7.7 2.1 0.1
16-4 61.0% 7.9    4.8 2.8 0.4 0.0
15-5 31.8% 4.0    1.6 1.8 0.6 0.0 0.0
14-6 11.1% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 40.6% 40.6 30.7 8.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.4% 85.3% 79.2% 6.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 29.1%
19-1 5.9% 72.0% 70.8% 1.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.7 4.2%
18-2 9.3% 59.3% 59.0% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.8 0.8%
17-3 11.8% 49.8% 49.8% 0.0% 13.2 0.1 1.1 2.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 5.9 0.0%
16-4 13.0% 39.6% 39.6% 13.7 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.1 0.8 0.1 7.9
15-5 12.6% 31.3% 31.3% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.2 0.2 8.7
14-6 11.1% 23.1% 23.1% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.4 8.6
13-7 9.6% 16.3% 16.3% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 8.0
12-8 7.7% 11.5% 11.5% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 6.8
11-9 5.8% 9.6% 9.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 5.3
10-10 4.2% 5.6% 5.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 4.0
9-11 2.6% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.1 2.5
8-12 1.8% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 1.8
7-13 1.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.0
6-14 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 32.7% 32.5% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.2 5.7 8.3 7.9 4.9 2.5 67.3 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 97.0% 5.0 3.9 1.3 14.3 30.3 13.4 10.0 19.0 0.9 0.4 3.5