Preseason Rankings
Colorado St.
Mountain West
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#71
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.1#229
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#41
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#112
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.3% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 3.4% 4.2% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 6.8% 8.1% 2.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.4% 31.0% 15.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.9% 21.8% 9.9%
Average Seed 8.6 8.5 9.8
.500 or above 76.5% 82.1% 58.2%
.500 or above in Conference 66.5% 70.4% 53.9%
Conference Champion 12.1% 13.5% 7.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 3.4% 7.9%
First Four4.4% 4.8% 3.2%
First Round25.3% 28.7% 14.4%
Second Round12.9% 15.0% 6.3%
Sweet Sixteen4.7% 5.6% 2.0%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.3% 0.8%
Final Four0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Home) - 76.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 4
Quad 24 - 45 - 8
Quad 36 - 312 - 11
Quad 45 - 117 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 120   Louisiana Tech W 74-66 77%    
  Nov 10, 2023 131   Wright St. W 81-73 78%    
  Nov 14, 2023 251   @ Northern Colorado W 80-71 80%    
  Nov 17, 2023 286   UMKC W 74-57 94%    
  Nov 22, 2023 103   Boston College W 72-69 62%    
  Nov 29, 2023 33   Colorado L 72-73 45%    
  Dec 02, 2023 74   Washington W 74-73 51%    
  Dec 06, 2023 307   Denver W 83-65 94%    
  Dec 09, 2023 26   St. Mary's L 63-65 43%    
  Dec 22, 2023 116   @ Loyola Marymount W 73-72 55%    
  Jan 02, 2024 55   New Mexico W 79-78 54%    
  Jan 06, 2024 83   @ Utah St. L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 09, 2024 54   @ Boise St. L 67-72 35%    
  Jan 16, 2024 166   Air Force W 71-61 80%    
  Jan 19, 2024 91   UNLV W 77-72 66%    
  Jan 24, 2024 79   @ Nevada L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 27, 2024 163   @ Wyoming W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 30, 2024 31   San Diego St. L 67-69 45%    
  Feb 03, 2024 111   @ Fresno St. W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 06, 2024 54   Boise St. W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 09, 2024 147   San Jose St. W 71-62 77%    
  Feb 13, 2024 31   @ San Diego St. L 64-72 26%    
  Feb 17, 2024 83   Utah St. W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 21, 2024 55   @ New Mexico L 76-81 35%    
  Feb 24, 2024 91   @ UNLV L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 27, 2024 79   Nevada W 72-68 62%    
  Mar 02, 2024 163   Wyoming W 75-65 79%    
  Mar 09, 2024 166   @ Air Force W 68-64 63%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.7 3.0 3.3 2.3 1.0 0.2 12.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.1 4.4 2.9 0.9 0.1 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.0 4.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.2 4.7 1.6 0.2 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.1 4.7 1.4 0.1 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.0 1.3 0.1 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 3.2 1.2 0.1 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.5 0.9 0.1 6.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.5 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.6 4.2 6.3 7.8 9.9 11.1 11.6 11.1 10.2 8.4 6.2 4.2 2.4 1.0 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 94.7% 2.3    2.0 0.2 0.0
15-3 78.1% 3.3    2.4 0.8 0.1
14-4 48.4% 3.0    1.5 1.2 0.3 0.0
13-5 19.9% 1.7    0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.1% 12.1 7.7 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 51.2% 48.8% 2.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.0% 99.6% 38.2% 61.3% 3.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
16-2 2.4% 97.9% 33.3% 64.6% 4.6 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.9%
15-3 4.2% 91.0% 25.6% 65.5% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 88.0%
14-4 6.2% 81.2% 23.9% 57.4% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.2 75.3%
13-5 8.4% 61.2% 17.7% 43.5% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.3 52.8%
12-6 10.2% 39.6% 13.5% 26.1% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.2 30.2%
11-7 11.1% 22.8% 10.4% 12.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 13.9%
10-8 11.6% 11.0% 7.3% 3.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.3 3.9%
9-9 11.1% 7.7% 6.4% 1.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.2 1.3%
8-10 9.9% 4.9% 4.8% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.4 0.1%
7-11 7.8% 3.9% 3.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.5
6-12 6.3% 2.3% 2.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.2
5-13 4.2% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.2
4-14 2.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.6
3-15 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.7
2-16 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 27.4% 10.5% 16.9% 8.6 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.4 3.1 4.5 5.2 1.9 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 72.6 18.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.7 45.9 35.3 18.8