Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.2#15
Expected Predictive Rating+16.6#22
Pace71.1#125
Improvement+2.0#56

Offense
Total Offense+8.5#18
First Shot+4.6#59
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#23
Layup/Dunks+4.2#54
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#166
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#162
Freethrows+0.3#158
Improvement+0.9#110

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#25
First Shot+5.1#45
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#69
Layups/Dunks+7.7#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#163
Freethrows+0.1#190
Improvement+1.2#80
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.3% 1.3% 3.8%
#1 Seed 6.7% 6.7% 3.8%
Top 2 Seed 17.1% 17.1% 7.5%
Top 4 Seed 44.5% 44.5% 20.8%
Top 6 Seed 66.1% 66.1% 39.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.7% 88.7% 79.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.0% 88.1% 78.4%
Average Seed 4.9 4.9 6.6
.500 or above 97.0% 97.0% 88.7%
.500 or above in Conference 69.6% 69.6% 56.6%
Conference Champion 6.4% 6.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 2.1% 7.5%
First Four3.1% 3.1% 3.8%
First Round87.3% 87.3% 75.5%
Second Round68.1% 68.1% 37.7%
Sweet Sixteen37.3% 37.3% 18.9%
Elite Eight18.0% 18.0% 11.3%
Final Four8.2% 8.2% 3.8%
Championship Game3.5% 3.5% 3.8%
National Champion1.4% 1.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Prairie View (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 9
Quad 26 - 214 - 11
Quad 33 - 017 - 11
Quad 45 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 349   West Georgia W 95-60 99%     1 - 0 +19.4 +11.4 +6.5
  Nov 08, 2024 230   Georgia St. W 101-66 97%     2 - 0 +28.2 +17.9 +8.1
  Nov 12, 2024 227   SE Louisiana W 80-59 97%     3 - 0 +14.4 +4.3 +9.5
  Nov 17, 2024 60   Utah W 78-73 72%     4 - 0 +14.3 +7.0 +7.1
  Nov 22, 2024 62   @ SMU W 84-79 61%     5 - 0 +17.2 +13.6 +3.6
  Nov 28, 2024 104   UNLV W 80-58 84%     6 - 0 +26.4 +13.1 +14.4
  Nov 29, 2024 54   Butler L 77-87 70%     6 - 1 -0.3 +6.0 -6.0
  Dec 04, 2024 36   Pittsburgh W 90-57 71%     7 - 1 +42.3 +23.6 +19.9
  Dec 08, 2024 357   Prairie View W 97-65 99.9%   
  Dec 14, 2024 95   McNeese St. W 78-68 82%    
  Dec 17, 2024 196   Central Michigan W 81-64 94%    
  Dec 21, 2024 32   @ Memphis L 78-79 47%    
  Dec 30, 2024 288   Bethune-Cookman W 86-61 99%    
  Jan 04, 2025 69   South Carolina W 77-67 82%    
  Jan 07, 2025 67   @ Vanderbilt W 80-77 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 9   Kentucky W 81-80 52%    
  Jan 14, 2025 3   @ Auburn L 75-83 23%    
  Jan 18, 2025 26   Mississippi W 78-73 66%    
  Jan 21, 2025 4   @ Tennessee L 68-76 24%    
  Jan 25, 2025 69   @ South Carolina W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 29, 2025 5   Alabama L 83-84 49%    
  Feb 01, 2025 63   Missouri W 82-73 79%    
  Feb 08, 2025 38   @ Georgia W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 11, 2025 10   Florida W 80-79 52%    
  Feb 15, 2025 26   @ Mississippi L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 18, 2025 30   Texas A&M W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 41   @ Oklahoma W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 25, 2025 5   @ Alabama L 80-86 29%    
  Mar 01, 2025 47   LSU W 80-72 75%    
  Mar 04, 2025 34   Texas W 76-70 69%    
  Mar 08, 2025 33   @ Arkansas L 76-77 48%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 1.9 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 6.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 3.3 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.4 3.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 9.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.2 4.0 0.8 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.2 3.2 5.0 1.3 0.1 9.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 5.4 2.3 0.1 9.3 6th
7th 0.5 4.1 3.7 0.4 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 4.7 1.1 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.2 2.1 0.1 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 2.1 3.2 0.5 0.0 5.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.0 1.1 0.0 4.9 11th
12th 0.3 1.9 1.7 0.1 4.1 12th
13th 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 3.4 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.6 15th
16th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 16th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 3.3 5.4 8.1 11.2 13.0 14.3 13.5 11.4 8.2 5.1 2.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 98.8% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 93.3% 1.1    0.9 0.2 0.0
15-3 73.1% 2.0    1.2 0.7 0.1
14-4 38.5% 1.9    0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1
13-5 11.8% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.4% 6.4 3.2 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.1% 100.0% 29.3% 70.7% 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.7% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 5.1% 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 1.8 2.0 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.2% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 2.5 1.3 3.0 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 11.4% 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 3.1 0.6 2.6 4.3 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.5% 100.0% 5.5% 94.5% 4.0 0.2 1.1 3.5 4.3 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 14.3% 99.9% 3.7% 96.2% 4.9 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.5 4.3 2.6 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 13.0% 99.4% 1.7% 97.7% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 3.0 3.4 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
8-10 11.2% 94.8% 1.0% 93.8% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 2.3 2.4 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.6 94.7%
7-11 8.1% 75.4% 0.5% 74.9% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.4 0.1 0.0 2.0 75.2%
6-12 5.4% 39.4% 0.2% 39.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.2 3.3 39.3%
5-13 3.3% 10.9% 0.1% 10.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.0 10.8%
4-14 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.7%
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 88.7% 5.6% 83.2% 4.9 6.7 10.4 14.0 13.4 12.3 9.2 7.1 5.1 3.8 3.3 3.0 0.4 0.0 11.3 88.0%