SE Louisiana
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#218
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#183
Pace68.3#179
Improvement+2.9#61

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#258
First Shot-2.6#251
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#217
Layup/Dunks+0.5#161
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#27
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#290
Freethrows-3.0#339
Improvement+4.2#22

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#171
First Shot-2.3#250
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#24
Layups/Dunks-1.2#222
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#68
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#257
Freethrows-1.1#264
Improvement-1.3#261
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.1% 10.0% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 99.6% 100.0% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round7.9% 9.8% 5.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Home) - 58.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 7
Quad 415 - 518 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 102   @ UAB L 72-82 18%     0 - 1 -3.2 -2.8 -0.3
  Nov 12, 2024 32   @ Mississippi St. L 59-80 5%     0 - 2 -5.4 -9.1 +4.4
  Nov 18, 2024 337   @ Louisiana Monroe W 70-67 72%     1 - 2 -6.0 -5.7 -0.3
  Nov 22, 2024 167   @ Wyoming L 61-64 30%     1 - 3 -0.6 -8.2 +7.5
  Nov 26, 2024 249   Gardner-Webb L 69-73 57%     1 - 4 -9.0 -9.2 +0.3
  Nov 27, 2024 268   North Dakota W 76-60 62%     2 - 4 +9.9 +0.2 +10.7
  Dec 02, 2024 143   @ Tulane W 71-67 26%     3 - 4 +7.7 +4.6 +3.3
  Dec 05, 2024 205   @ Nicholls St. L 64-67 37%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -2.7 -12.2 +9.6
  Dec 11, 2024 298   @ Louisiana L 61-68 59%     3 - 6 -12.5 -12.4 -0.2
  Dec 16, 2024 327   @ Grambling St. W 75-65 68%     4 - 6 +2.1 +7.8 -4.7
  Dec 30, 2024 87   @ McNeese St. L 51-79 13%     4 - 7 0 - 2 -18.9 -14.9 -5.0
  Jan 04, 2025 209   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71-80 57%     4 - 8 0 - 3 -13.9 +0.0 -14.4
  Jan 06, 2025 266   UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-75 70%     5 - 8 1 - 3 -4.4 +2.8 -7.1
  Jan 11, 2025 350   @ New Orleans W 91-71 77%     6 - 8 2 - 3 +9.3 +9.0 -0.3
  Jan 13, 2025 250   @ Stephen F. Austin W 66-59 48%     7 - 8 3 - 3 +4.4 +2.9 +2.1
  Jan 18, 2025 267   @ Northwestern St. W 65-64 52%     8 - 8 4 - 3 -2.5 +3.7 -6.1
  Jan 20, 2025 339   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 76-68 72%     9 - 8 5 - 3 -1.2 -0.1 -1.1
  Jan 25, 2025 287   Incarnate Word W 86-63 73%     10 - 8 6 - 3 +13.5 +6.0 +7.5
  Jan 27, 2025 289   Houston Christian L 62-70 73%     10 - 9 6 - 4 -17.6 -9.3 -9.2
  Feb 01, 2025 350   New Orleans W 76-68 88%     11 - 9 7 - 4 -7.6 -10.1 +2.0
  Feb 03, 2025 212   Lamar W 81-79 58%     12 - 9 8 - 4 -3.2 +10.1 -13.2
  Feb 08, 2025 287   @ Incarnate Word W 71-66 56%     13 - 9 9 - 4 +0.4 -3.0 +3.7
  Feb 10, 2025 289   @ Houston Christian W 69-60 56%     14 - 9 10 - 4 +4.4 +3.2 +2.5
  Feb 15, 2025 205   Nicholls St. W 73-71 59%    
  Feb 17, 2025 87   McNeese St. L 65-72 26%    
  Feb 22, 2025 339   Texas A&M - Commerce W 74-63 86%    
  Feb 24, 2025 267   Northwestern St. W 68-63 71%    
  Mar 01, 2025 209   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 70-73 37%    
  Mar 03, 2025 266   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-74 50%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1st
2nd 0.7 13.2 22.4 12.8 2.2 51.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 5.8 16.2 4.9 0.3 27.3 3rd
4th 0.8 9.4 2.3 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 2.7 2.7 5.4 5th
6th 0.3 1.8 0.3 2.4 6th
7th 0.3 0.2 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.6 5.6 18.9 31.8 27.4 13.3 2.5 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 13.6% 0.3    0.1 0.3 0.0
15-5 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.2 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 2.5% 18.0% 18.0% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.1
15-5 13.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.7 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.1 11.4
14-6 27.4% 10.3% 10.3% 15.1 0.3 2.0 0.6 24.6
13-7 31.8% 6.6% 6.6% 15.4 0.1 1.0 1.0 29.7
12-8 18.9% 3.7% 3.7% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 18.2
11-9 5.6% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 5.5
10-10 0.6% 0.6
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.5 2.1 91.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 13.7 2.2 37.8 46.7 13.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%
Lose Out 0.3%