Florida
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.5#10
Expected Predictive Rating+18.5#13
Pace73.8#63
Improvement+2.3#45

Offense
Total Offense+11.6#5
First Shot+9.5#7
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#70
Layup/Dunks+4.8#44
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#229
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#43
Freethrows+0.6#148
Improvement+1.5#69

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#37
First Shot+8.1#10
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#318
Layups/Dunks+2.4#94
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#29
Freethrows+2.2#62
Improvement+0.7#113
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.9% 4.5% 1.8%
#1 Seed 17.7% 20.0% 10.3%
Top 2 Seed 38.0% 42.1% 24.8%
Top 4 Seed 69.7% 73.8% 56.6%
Top 6 Seed 85.3% 88.0% 76.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.2% 98.1% 94.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.8% 97.8% 93.7%
Average Seed 3.6 3.4 4.4
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 85.5% 87.1% 80.6%
Conference Champion 13.3% 14.7% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.8%
First Four1.4% 1.2% 2.3%
First Round96.6% 97.7% 93.2%
Second Round84.3% 86.7% 76.7%
Sweet Sixteen54.6% 57.2% 46.2%
Elite Eight30.1% 32.2% 23.6%
Final Four16.0% 17.4% 11.7%
Championship Game8.2% 8.9% 5.8%
National Champion4.1% 4.5% 2.7%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Neutral) - 76.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 7
Quad 27 - 116 - 8
Quad 34 - 019 - 8
Quad 45 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 148   South Florida W 98-83 93%     1 - 0 +15.6 +16.6 -2.3
  Nov 07, 2024 212   Jacksonville W 81-60 97%     2 - 0 +15.6 +10.0 +6.5
  Nov 11, 2024 226   Grambling St. W 86-62 98%     3 - 0 +17.4 +8.1 +8.3
  Nov 15, 2024 61   @ Florida St. W 87-74 69%     4 - 0 +25.3 +16.4 +8.1
  Nov 19, 2024 353   Florida A&M W 84-60 99%     5 - 0 +8.1 +7.1 +1.3
  Nov 22, 2024 169   Southern Illinois W 93-68 96%     6 - 0 +21.3 +17.7 +2.9
  Nov 28, 2024 89   Wake Forest W 75-58 86%     7 - 0 +23.0 +10.7 +13.0
  Nov 29, 2024 94   Wichita St. W 88-51 86%     8 - 0 +42.6 +21.1 +22.2
  Dec 04, 2024 90   Virginia W 87-69 91%     9 - 0 +20.9 +25.2 -2.7
  Dec 14, 2024 51   Arizona St. W 83-75 76%    
  Dec 17, 2024 17   North Carolina W 88-85 60%    
  Dec 21, 2024 182   North Florida W 95-73 98%    
  Dec 29, 2024 329   Stetson W 94-64 99.7%   
  Jan 04, 2025 9   @ Kentucky L 83-86 39%    
  Jan 07, 2025 4   Tennessee W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 11, 2025 33   @ Arkansas W 81-79 56%    
  Jan 14, 2025 63   Missouri W 86-75 85%    
  Jan 18, 2025 34   Texas W 80-72 76%    
  Jan 22, 2025 69   @ South Carolina W 78-72 71%    
  Jan 25, 2025 38   Georgia W 82-73 78%    
  Feb 01, 2025 4   @ Tennessee L 72-78 30%    
  Feb 04, 2025 67   Vanderbilt W 88-76 85%    
  Feb 08, 2025 3   @ Auburn L 79-85 30%    
  Feb 11, 2025 15   @ Mississippi St. L 79-80 48%    
  Feb 15, 2025 69   South Carolina W 81-69 86%    
  Feb 18, 2025 41   Oklahoma W 82-73 79%    
  Feb 22, 2025 47   @ LSU W 82-78 65%    
  Feb 25, 2025 38   @ Georgia W 79-76 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 30   Texas A&M W 79-72 75%    
  Mar 05, 2025 5   @ Alabama L 85-89 36%    
  Mar 08, 2025 26   Mississippi W 83-76 73%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.9 4.3 2.5 0.9 0.2 13.3 1st
2nd 0.1 2.1 5.5 4.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.9 4.8 1.2 0.1 13.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.7 5.3 1.1 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.2 3.1 5.6 1.6 0.1 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 5.0 2.3 0.2 8.8 6th
7th 0.3 3.6 3.2 0.4 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 3.3 0.8 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.3 2.4 1.5 0.1 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.1 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 14th
15th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 4.0 6.8 10.2 13.2 14.6 15.3 13.0 9.7 5.8 2.7 0.9 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 98.6% 0.9    0.8 0.0
16-2 92.8% 2.5    2.0 0.4 0.0
15-3 73.9% 4.3    2.6 1.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 39.9% 3.9    1.3 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.5% 1.5    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.3% 13.3 7.1 4.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 30.4% 69.6% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.9% 100.0% 39.7% 60.3% 1.1 0.8 0.1 100.0%
16-2 2.7% 100.0% 29.5% 70.5% 1.2 2.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.8% 100.0% 25.5% 74.5% 1.4 3.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.7% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 1.7 4.6 3.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.0% 100.0% 17.5% 82.5% 2.1 3.7 5.5 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.3% 100.0% 12.2% 87.8% 2.7 1.8 5.0 5.2 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 14.6% 100.0% 7.3% 92.7% 3.4 0.6 2.5 4.8 4.2 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 13.2% 100.0% 4.3% 95.6% 4.3 0.1 0.8 2.7 3.9 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 10.2% 99.6% 3.1% 96.6% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 2.6 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
8-10 6.8% 97.2% 1.8% 95.4% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.1%
7-11 4.0% 86.7% 0.7% 86.0% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.5 86.6%
6-12 2.2% 60.6% 0.2% 60.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.8 60.5%
5-13 0.9% 26.9% 0.6% 26.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 26.5%
4-14 0.4% 4.7% 4.7% 11.0 0.0 0.4 4.7%
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 97.2% 10.9% 86.3% 3.6 17.7 20.3 17.8 13.9 9.4 6.2 4.0 2.5 2.2 1.6 1.4 0.1 2.8 96.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 90.5 9.5