Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#84
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#112
Pace70.1#167
Improvement-0.2#188

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#81
First Shot+5.3#54
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#255
Layup/Dunks-0.2#187
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#43
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#95
Freethrows-0.3#200
Improvement+0.4#139

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#95
First Shot+2.2#99
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#162
Layups/Dunks+5.1#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#361
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#173
Freethrows+2.2#61
Improvement-0.6#232
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 5.7% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.0% 5.6% 1.9%
Average Seed 9.5 9.5 9.5
.500 or above 13.4% 18.8% 6.1%
.500 or above in Conference 8.1% 9.7% 6.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 34.3% 31.3% 38.5%
First Four1.4% 1.9% 0.6%
First Round3.4% 4.7% 1.7%
Second Round1.4% 2.0% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Home) - 57.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 53 - 12
Quad 23 - 66 - 18
Quad 32 - 18 - 19
Quad 45 - 013 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 214 North Alabama W 86-62 88%     1 - 0 +17.6 +8.7 +8.3
  Mon, Nov 10 4 Iowa St. L 80-96 8%     1 - 1 +6.0 +12.4 -5.2
  Sat, Nov 15 272 SE Louisiana W 75-68 92%     2 - 1 -2.0 -3.6 +1.2
  Thu, Nov 20 67 Kansas St. L 77-98 43%     2 - 2 -12.6 +1.7 -12.9
  Fri, Nov 21 74 New Mexico L 78-80 46%     2 - 3 +5.8 +6.8 -0.9
  Mon, Nov 24 244 New Orleans W 81-78 OT 91%     3 - 3 -4.8 -4.9 -0.2
  Fri, Nov 28 42 SMU L 81-87 OT 41%     3 - 4 +3.1 +1.1 +2.7
  Wed, Dec 3 128 @Georgia Tech W 85-73 56%     4 - 4 +17.0 +11.7 +4.5
  Sun, Dec 7 94 San Francisco L 62-65 54%     4 - 5 +2.6 -0.6 +2.8
  Sat, Dec 13 119 Utah W 82-74 64%     5 - 5 +11.0 +9.1 +1.9
  Tue, Dec 16 201 LIU Brooklyn W 87-83 87%     6 - 5 -1.6 +8.9 -10.6
  Sat, Dec 20 76 Memphis W 76-74 58%    
  Mon, Dec 29 278 Alabama St. W 84-68 93%    
  Sat, Jan 3 40 @Texas L 72-81 20%    
  Wed, Jan 7 47 Oklahoma L 77-78 45%    
  Sat, Jan 10 21 @Kentucky L 71-83 14%    
  Tue, Jan 13 16 Alabama L 82-90 23%    
  Sat, Jan 17 60 Mississippi W 73-72 52%    
  Wed, Jan 21 45 @Texas A&M L 75-83 25%    
  Sat, Jan 24 10 Vanderbilt L 75-84 22%    
  Wed, Jan 28 35 @LSU L 72-81 20%    
  Sat, Jan 31 49 @Missouri L 75-82 25%    
  Sat, Feb 7 20 Arkansas L 76-82 29%    
  Wed, Feb 11 15 Tennessee L 69-77 24%    
  Sat, Feb 14 60 @Mississippi L 70-75 32%    
  Wed, Feb 18 28 Auburn L 75-80 34%    
  Sat, Feb 21 86 @South Carolina L 70-73 41%    
  Wed, Feb 25 16 @Alabama L 79-93 11%    
  Sat, Feb 28 49 Missouri L 78-79 45%    
  Tue, Mar 3 13 @Florida L 69-83 10%    
  Sat, Mar 7 19 Georgia L 80-86 29%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.2 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.4 1.0 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 2.4 0.2 4.5 10th
11th 0.1 1.4 3.7 1.1 0.0 6.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 4.5 2.8 0.2 8.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 4.5 5.3 0.9 0.0 11.7 13th
14th 0.1 0.9 4.8 6.6 2.4 0.1 14.8 14th
15th 0.3 1.8 5.8 8.0 3.5 0.4 19.9 15th
16th 1.2 4.1 7.1 6.4 3.0 0.4 0.0 22.1 16th
Total 1.2 4.4 8.9 13.1 16.7 16.0 14.2 9.9 7.3 4.2 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 0.0%
13-5 30.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.3% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 97.7% 4.7% 93.0% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.6%
12-6 0.4% 98.3% 6.8% 91.5% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.2%
11-7 1.2% 83.5% 2.0% 81.5% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 83.2%
10-8 2.2% 56.2% 0.3% 55.9% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.0 56.1%
9-9 4.2% 25.5% 0.6% 24.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.0 3.1 25.1%
8-10 7.3% 3.5% 0.4% 3.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 7.1 3.2%
7-11 9.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 9.9 0.1%
6-12 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 14.2 0.0%
5-13 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 16.0
4-14 16.7% 16.7
3-15 13.1% 13.1
2-16 8.9% 8.9
1-17 4.4% 4.4
0-18 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 4.1% 0.1% 4.0% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 95.9 4.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%