Pre-tourney Rankings
Mountain West
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
33 Utah St. 100.0%   8   27 - 6 15 - 5 +13.9      +8.8 31 +5.1 53 68.5 179 +14.7 35 +13.1 1
51 San Diego St. 34.3%   21 - 11 14 - 6 +11.2      +2.7 104 +8.5 18 70.6 117 +10.9 53 +11.7 2
54 New Mexico 18.9%   22 - 10 13 - 7 +10.8      +5.6 66 +5.2 49 73.5 50 +10.2 59 +9.9 3
61 Grand Canyon 0.8%   20 - 12 13 - 7 +9.5      +1.6 124 +7.9 22 69.8 137 +7.5 80 +9.8 4
64 Boise St. 5.9%   19 - 11 12 - 8 +9.2      +5.7 63 +3.4 83 64.9 275 +9.6 65 +9.3 5
78 Nevada 1.2%   22 - 12 12 - 8 +7.7      +4.2 83 +3.5 80 65.5 261 +8.6 70 +8.5 6
89 Colorado St. 0.2%   20 - 12 11 - 9 +6.3      +6.0 59 +0.3 160 60.3 357 +7.7 77 +7.1 8
102 Wyoming 0.0%   17 - 14 9 - 11 +5.0      +4.1 84 +0.9 141 65.9 251 +4.3 108 +4.4 9
105 UNLV 0.0%   16 - 16 11 - 9 +4.6      +4.4 79 +0.2 168 73.4 54 +5.0 103 +7.4 7
133 Fresno St. 0.0%   12 - 19 7 - 13 +1.8      -1.4 204 +3.2 87 70.5 120 -0.4 168 +1.5 10
212 San Jose St. 0.0%   8 - 24 3 - 17 -3.0      +2.3 110 -5.3 317 63.8 307 -3.2 222 -6.6 11
344 Air Force 0.0%   3 - 29 0 - 20 -13.2      -9.2 353 -4.0 292 66.1 245 -13.0 344 -15.1 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Mar 12 61 Grand Canyon 80 78 Nevada 84   
Thu, Mar 12 89 Colorado St. 62 51 San Diego St. 71   
Thu, Mar 12 105 UNLV 60 33 Utah St. 80   
Thu, Mar 12 54 New Mexico 93 212 San Jose St. 77   
Fri, Mar 13 54 New Mexico 62 51 San Diego St. 64   
Fri, Mar 13 78 Nevada 66 33 Utah St. 79   
Sat, Mar 14 51 San Diego St. 62 33 Utah St. 73   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Utah St. 1.0 100.0
San Diego St. 2.0 100.0
Grand Canyon 3.0 100.0
New Mexico 3.0 100.0
Boise St. 5.0 100.0
Nevada 5.0 100.0
Colorado St. 7.0 100.0
UNLV 7.0 100.0
Wyoming 9.0 100.0
Fresno St. 10.0 100.0
San Jose St. 11.0 100.0
Air Force 12.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Utah St. 15 - 5 27 - 6 100.0
San Diego St. 14 - 6 21 - 11 100.0
Grand Canyon 13 - 7 20 - 12 100.0
New Mexico 13 - 7 22 - 10 100.0
Boise St. 12 - 8 19 - 11 100.0
Nevada 12 - 8 22 - 12 100.0
Colorado St. 11 - 9 20 - 12 100.0
UNLV 11 - 9 16 - 16 100.0
Wyoming 9 - 11 17 - 14 100.0
Fresno St. 7 - 13 12 - 19 100.0
San Jose St. 3 - 17 8 - 24 100.0
Air Force 0 - 20 3 - 29 100.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah St. 100.0% 100.0
San Diego St.
Grand Canyon
New Mexico
Boise St.
Nevada
Colorado St.
UNLV
Wyoming
Fresno St.
San Jose St.
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 8   0.2 4.5 17.3 36.3 34.2 7.3 0.2
San Diego St. 34.3% 0.0% 34.3% 0.1 1.4 11.7 20.9 0.3 65.7 34.3%
New Mexico 18.9% 0.0% 18.9% 0.1 2.5 15.4 0.8 81.1 18.9%
Grand Canyon 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0 0.6 0.1 99.2 0.8%
Boise St. 5.9% 0.0% 5.9% 0.0 0.2 5.0 0.7 94.1 5.9%
Nevada 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.8 0.4 0.0 98.8 1.2%
Colorado St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.2%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UNLV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.6 47.5 44.2 8.0 0.4 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.4 61.7 34.8 3.5 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 56.0% 0.6 44.1 50.1 5.8 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 10.5% 0.1 89.5 10.3 0.2
Elite Eight 3.3% 0.0 96.7 3.3 0.0
Final Four 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 49.6% 8.3% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
San Diego St. 34.3% 16.4% 26.3% 8.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 18.9% 14.2% 11.8% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boise St. 5.9% 5.3% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%