Pre-tourney Rankings
Ohio Valley
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
181 Tennessee St. 100.0%   15   20 - 9 15 - 5 -1.3      0.0 163 -1.3 217 74.5 33 -0.5 169 -1.9 2
231 Southeast Missouri St. 0.0%   17 - 13 14 - 6 -4.3      -5.3 306 +0.9 139 71.4 99 -4.2 235 -3.0 3
232 Tennessee Martin 0.0%   19 - 11 13 - 7 -4.3      -6.6 330 +2.3 113 62.6 330 -2.5 208 -4.4 4
263 SIU Edwardsville 0.0%   16 - 13 12 - 8 -5.6      -7.0 337 +1.4 132 62.7 328 -6.4 260 -5.6 5
273 Lindenwood 0.0%   15 - 15 11 - 9 -6.3      -6.1 321 -0.2 176 79.1 8 -6.5 265 -6.9 6
285 Morehead St. 0.0%   17 - 13 15 - 5 -7.3      -1.5 207 -5.8 325 64.4 289 -3.4 225 -1.1 1
305 Arkansas Little Rock 0.0%   10 - 20 9 - 11 -8.8      -4.5 293 -4.3 298 66.5 231 -9.7 315 -9.1 7
314 Tennessee Tech 0.0%   10 - 18 8 - 12 -9.4      -4.8 294 -4.7 306 68.1 189 -9.8 316 -10.4 9
322 Eastern Illinois 0.0%   10 - 20 8 - 12 -10.3      -8.4 345 -2.0 233 64.8 278 -9.9 320 -10.3 8
338 Southern Indiana 0.0%   5 - 23 4 - 16 -12.5      -9.0 350 -3.5 282 68.8 165 -16.4 354 -16.3 10
364 Western Illinois 0.0%   2 - 26 1 - 19 -19.3      -11.2 359 -8.2 355 66.3 238 -20.9 363 -23.8 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Morehead St. 1.0 100.0
Tennessee St. 1.0 100.0
Southeast Missouri St. 3.0 100.0
Tennessee Martin 4.0 100.0
SIU Edwardsville 5.0 100.0
Lindenwood 6.0 100.0
Arkansas Little Rock 7.0 100.0
Eastern Illinois 8.0 100.0
Tennessee Tech 8.0 100.0
Southern Indiana 10.0 100.0
Western Illinois 11.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Morehead St. 15 - 5 17 - 13 100.0
Tennessee St. 15 - 5 20 - 9 100.0
Southeast Missouri St. 14 - 6 17 - 13 100.0
Tennessee Martin 13 - 7 19 - 11 100.0
SIU Edwardsville 12 - 8 16 - 13 100.0
Lindenwood 11 - 9 15 - 15 100.0
Arkansas Little Rock 9 - 11 10 - 20 100.0
Eastern Illinois 8 - 12 10 - 20 100.0
Tennessee Tech 8 - 12 10 - 18 100.0
Southern Indiana 4 - 16 5 - 23 100.0
Western Illinois 1 - 19 2 - 26 100.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Morehead St. 100.0% 100.0
Tennessee St. 100.0% 100.0
Southeast Missouri St.
Tennessee Martin
SIU Edwardsville
Lindenwood
Arkansas Little Rock
Eastern Illinois
Tennessee Tech
Southern Indiana
Western Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Tennessee St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 15   0.2 18.4 66.7 14.7
Southeast Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Lindenwood 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Morehead St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.2% 1.0 0.8 99.2
2nd Round 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Tennessee St. 100.0% 1.6% 99.2% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%