Preseason Rankings
Atlantic Sun
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
175 Florida Gulf Coast 19.0%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 6 -1.2      -0.9 196 -0.3 173 64.0 291 0.0 1 0.0 1
181 Eastern Kentucky 19.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 6 -1.4      +1.0 132 -2.5 258 68.5 168 0.0 1 0.0 1
188 Lipscomb 16.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 6 -2.0      -1.4 215 -0.6 188 66.0 233 0.0 1 0.0 1
191 North Alabama 16.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 12 - 6 -2.0      -0.6 184 -1.5 218 66.6 216 0.0 1 0.0 1
242 Queens 8.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 10 - 8 -4.4      -0.4 178 -4.0 303 70.7 106 0.0 1 0.0 1
245 Jacksonville 9.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -4.5      -4.3 292 -0.3 174 68.7 159 0.0 1 0.0 1
272 Austin Peay 5.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 9 -6.1      -3.1 264 -2.9 272 65.5 249 0.0 1 0.0 1
319 Bellarmine 2.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -9.2      -2.0 230 -7.2 356 66.1 229 0.0 1 0.0 1
330 North Florida 1.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 11 -10.2      -2.4 240 -7.8 359 78.6 10 0.0 1 0.0 1
348 Stetson 0.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 21 6 - 12 -12.1      -5.1 314 -7.1 353 69.0 146 0.0 1 0.0 1
354 Central Arkansas 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 13 -13.6      -6.3 339 -7.3 357 65.9 240 0.0 1 0.0 1
355 West Georgia 0.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 21 5 - 13 -13.7      -6.6 342 -7.1 355 69.5 133 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Florida Gulf Coast 3.5 25.0 18.4 15.0 11.9 9.3 7.0 5.1 3.8 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.2
Eastern Kentucky 3.6 24.8 17.8 14.6 11.9 9.1 7.5 5.3 3.9 2.5 1.4 0.9 0.3
Lipscomb 4.0 19.9 16.2 14.7 12.3 10.3 8.7 6.4 4.7 3.4 2.1 1.0 0.4
North Alabama 3.8 21.3 17.9 14.8 12.0 10.2 8.1 5.9 4.2 2.5 1.8 0.9 0.3
Queens 4.9 11.8 12.3 12.5 12.5 11.9 11.1 8.8 7.1 5.3 3.5 2.2 1.0
Jacksonville 5.0 10.6 11.4 12.7 12.2 12.2 11.2 9.4 7.4 5.4 4.0 2.4 1.2
Austin Peay 6.0 6.4 7.6 9.2 10.2 10.8 11.9 11.3 10.2 8.7 6.8 4.7 2.3
Bellarmine 7.5 2.2 3.3 4.7 6.1 8.2 10.1 12.2 13.0 12.7 11.5 9.4 6.7
North Florida 7.9 1.3 3.0 3.7 5.5 7.0 9.0 10.5 12.5 13.5 13.8 11.7 8.4
Stetson 8.9 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.4 4.4 6.4 8.4 10.9 13.9 16.5 17.0 14.9
Central Arkansas 9.4 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.2 5.2 7.6 9.4 12.5 16.2 19.8 21.4
West Georgia 9.5 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.4 5.1 6.9 9.4 12.6 16.1 19.7 22.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Florida Gulf Coast 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.5 4.4 7.1 9.2 10.9 12.7 13.2 12.1 10.7 7.1 4.0 1.3
Eastern Kentucky 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.3 3.5 4.9 7.3 9.0 11.2 12.1 12.6 12.4 10.0 7.3 3.9 1.4
Lipscomb 12 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.8 2.8 4.5 5.9 8.6 10.2 11.3 12.8 12.0 10.9 8.1 5.4 3.3 0.9
North Alabama 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.2 4.1 5.7 8.1 9.3 11.8 12.7 12.5 11.5 9.7 6.1 3.0 0.9
Queens 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.0 3.1 4.5 6.9 8.7 10.6 11.9 11.8 11.4 9.6 7.9 5.8 3.0 1.2 0.3
Jacksonville 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 3.4 5.0 7.4 9.3 10.7 12.2 12.0 11.1 9.3 7.1 5.0 2.6 1.2 0.3
Austin Peay 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.4 3.9 6.0 7.8 9.8 11.2 11.7 11.0 10.2 8.7 6.4 4.4 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.1
Bellarmine 7 - 11 0.4 1.3 3.0 5.3 8.2 10.0 11.3 12.5 11.8 10.7 8.6 6.4 4.7 2.8 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
North Florida 7 - 11 0.6 1.8 4.3 6.9 9.4 11.1 12.4 12.1 11.0 9.4 7.6 5.2 3.7 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Stetson 6 - 12 1.3 4.1 7.5 10.1 12.6 13.0 13.1 10.8 9.0 6.4 5.0 3.3 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 5 - 13 2.1 5.9 10.2 12.6 13.8 13.1 12.1 9.2 7.8 5.4 3.6 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
West Georgia 5 - 13 2.5 6.4 10.4 12.6 14.0 13.6 11.2 9.0 7.6 5.3 3.3 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Florida Gulf Coast 25.0% 16.3 6.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 24.8% 16.7 6.4 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lipscomb 19.9% 13.3 4.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Alabama 21.3% 13.8 5.7 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Queens 11.8% 7.1 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 10.6% 6.3 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Austin Peay 6.4% 3.5 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bellarmine 2.2% 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Florida 1.3% 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stetson 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
West Georgia 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Florida Gulf Coast 19.0% 19.0% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.9 5.0 4.8 3.3 81.0 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 19.0% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.9 3.9 4.9 5.0 3.2 81.0 0.0%
Lipscomb 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.3 4.3 4.5 3.0 83.7 0.0%
North Alabama 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.0 4.5 4.2 3.8 83.7 0.0%
Queens 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 2.1 2.9 2.7 91.1 0.0%
Jacksonville 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 2.7 2.9 91.0 0.0%
Austin Peay 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.0 2.5 94.2 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 97.7 0.0%
North Florida 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 98.4 0.0%
Stetson 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 99.1 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%
West Georgia 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Florida Gulf Coast 19.0% 1.6% 19.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 19.0% 1.5% 19.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 16.3% 1.4% 16.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 16.3% 2.0% 16.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 8.9% 1.5% 8.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 9.0% 1.6% 8.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 5.8% 1.4% 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.3% 0.8% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 1.7% 0.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.9% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 95.1% 1.0 4.9 90.7 4.4
2nd Round 4.6% 0.0 95.4 4.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0