Preseason Rankings
Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#272
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.5#249
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#264
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#272
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 7.9% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.6 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 36.0% 51.7% 25.5%
.500 or above in Conference 57.5% 67.6% 50.8%
Conference Champion 6.4% 9.3% 4.5%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 2.5% 5.7%
First Four1.4% 1.4% 1.3%
First Round5.8% 8.0% 4.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Away) - 39.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 411 - 713 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2025 277   @ Air Force L 64-67 40%    
  Nov 11, 2025 157   @ Wyoming L 61-70 20%    
  Nov 15, 2025 232   @ UNC Greensboro L 62-67 32%    
  Nov 18, 2025 30   @ Mississippi L 59-82 2%    
  Nov 21, 2025 150   @ Tulsa L 64-73 20%    
  Nov 25, 2025 314   Northern Illinois W 74-68 69%    
  Dec 03, 2025 127   @ Kent St. L 62-73 16%    
  Dec 07, 2025 275   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 71-74 40%    
  Dec 12, 2025 156   East Tennessee St. L 65-68 39%    
  Dec 21, 2025 300   @ UMKC L 64-65 44%    
  Jan 01, 2026 330   North Florida W 81-74 72%    
  Jan 03, 2026 245   Jacksonville W 68-67 55%    
  Jan 08, 2026 175   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 63-71 25%    
  Jan 10, 2026 348   @ Stetson W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 15, 2026 181   Eastern Kentucky L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 17, 2026 188   @ Lipscomb L 64-71 29%    
  Jan 22, 2026 175   Florida Gulf Coast L 66-68 44%    
  Jan 24, 2026 348   Stetson W 75-66 77%    
  Jan 28, 2026 181   @ Eastern Kentucky L 67-75 26%    
  Jan 31, 2026 355   @ West Georgia W 73-68 65%    
  Feb 05, 2026 188   Lipscomb L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 07, 2026 191   North Alabama L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 11, 2026 242   @ Queens L 70-75 35%    
  Feb 14, 2026 319   Bellarmine W 74-68 69%    
  Feb 19, 2026 330   @ North Florida W 78-77 53%    
  Feb 21, 2026 245   @ Jacksonville L 65-70 36%    
  Feb 25, 2026 354   Central Arkansas W 74-63 81%    
  Feb 28, 2026 319   @ Bellarmine W 71-70 51%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 6.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.7 2.3 0.9 0.1 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.9 2.5 0.5 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.3 2.1 4.5 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.9 2.9 0.6 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.4 2.4 5.4 3.3 0.5 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.3 2.3 4.9 3.3 0.5 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.3 2.0 4.1 3.2 0.6 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.5 2.5 0.5 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 6.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.3 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.4 3.9 6.0 7.8 9.8 11.2 11.7 11.0 10.2 8.7 6.4 4.4 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.4 0.0
16-2 92.6% 1.3    1.0 0.3 0.0
15-3 70.3% 2.1    1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 36.4% 1.6    0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 10.8% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.4% 6.4 3.5 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 44.1% 44.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.5% 48.6% 48.6% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.4% 33.8% 33.8% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.9
15-3 3.0% 25.9% 25.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 2.2
14-4 4.4% 19.4% 19.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 3.6
13-5 6.4% 12.8% 12.8% 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 5.6
12-6 8.7% 9.0% 9.0% 18.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 7.9
11-7 10.2% 6.3% 6.3% 19.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 9.6
10-8 11.0% 4.9% 4.9% 18.6 0.2 0.5 10.5
9-9 11.7% 2.8% 2.8% 17.9 0.0 0.3 11.4
8-10 11.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.1
7-11 9.8% 0.4% 0.4% 19.2 0.0 9.7
6-12 7.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.8
5-13 6.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.0
4-14 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.9
3-15 2.4% 2.4
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 16.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.0 2.5 94.2 0.0%