Preseason Rankings
Ohio Valley
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
162 Arkansas Little Rock 32.4%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 14 - 6 -0.5      -1.3 213 +0.7 141 67.1 208 0.0 1 0.0 1
228 Southeast Missouri St. 15.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 12 - 7 -3.7      -3.2 269 -0.5 183 71.1 94 0.0 1 0.0 1
240 SIU Edwardsville 15.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 12 - 8 -4.3      -4.0 289 -0.3 176 65.4 253 0.0 1 0.0 1
268 Tennessee St. 9.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 13 10 - 8 -5.8      -3.1 263 -2.7 267 74.9 34 0.0 1 0.0 1
291 Morehead St. 7.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 10 - 10 -7.3      -5.1 315 -2.2 249 61.8 334 0.0 1 0.0 1
311 Southern Indiana 5.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 9 - 11 -8.4      -3.4 275 -5.0 322 67.5 195 0.0 1 0.0 1
321 Eastern Illinois 3.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 9 - 11 -9.5      -7.3 355 -2.1 246 66.1 230 0.0 1 0.0 1
324 Tennessee Tech 3.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 11 -9.8      -4.8 308 -5.0 326 69.0 145 0.0 1 0.0 1
325 Tennessee Martin 3.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 12 -9.9      -4.9 310 -5.0 324 66.0 235 0.0 1 0.0 1
326 Lindenwood 3.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 8 - 12 -9.9      -6.7 349 -3.1 279 72.5 65 0.0 1 0.0 1
343 Western Illinois 1.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 13 -11.5      -6.0 333 -5.5 334 62.4 329 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Arkansas Little Rock 2.5 47.0 19.6 11.1 7.4 5.3 3.4 2.5 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.2
Southeast Missouri St. 4.1 16.2 18.1 15.1 12.5 10.0 8.6 6.5 5.0 3.8 2.5 1.5
SIU Edwardsville 4.0 20.3 16.9 14.6 11.3 9.4 7.8 6.2 5.3 3.7 2.8 1.6
Tennessee St. 5.3 7.2 11.6 13.0 12.2 11.8 10.8 9.9 8.5 6.7 5.1 3.3
Morehead St. 5.5 8.3 10.4 11.3 11.1 11.3 10.4 9.7 8.9 7.4 6.5 4.7
Southern Indiana 6.0 6.0 8.3 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.6 10.9 9.8 9.1 8.4 7.0
Eastern Illinois 6.6 4.3 6.1 7.9 8.4 9.7 10.3 11.0 10.6 10.9 11.0 9.8
Tennessee Tech 7.2 2.5 4.2 6.2 7.3 8.6 9.7 10.9 12.1 12.7 13.2 12.5
Tennessee Martin 6.9 3.5 5.6 6.8 7.9 9.3 10.2 10.4 10.9 12.0 11.9 11.4
Lindenwood 6.9 3.3 5.2 7.2 8.2 9.1 10.0 10.8 11.3 11.6 12.1 11.1
Western Illinois 7.7 1.9 3.3 4.6 6.0 7.6 8.8 10.3 11.5 12.9 15.3 17.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Arkansas Little Rock 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.8 3.2 4.1 6.0 7.7 9.5 11.3 12.6 12.6 11.5 9.0 5.9 2.3
Southeast Missouri St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.9 2.9 4.5 5.8 7.8 9.0 10.7 11.7 11.3 10.0 9.1 6.9 3.9 2.2 0.6
SIU Edwardsville 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.0 2.7 4.6 5.8 7.4 8.4 9.5 10.5 10.9 9.7 9.4 7.0 5.2 3.0 1.6 0.4
Tennessee St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.3 2.3 3.8 5.5 7.5 9.6 10.0 11.1 11.2 10.8 9.2 7.5 5.0 2.8 1.4 0.3
Morehead St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.1 4.4 6.4 7.8 9.2 10.2 10.5 10.3 9.5 7.9 6.3 4.8 3.1 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.0
Southern Indiana 9 - 11 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.1 5.9 7.6 9.3 9.9 10.7 10.0 9.2 8.3 7.0 5.2 3.3 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1
Eastern Illinois 9 - 11 0.3 0.9 2.3 3.9 5.9 7.6 8.8 10.1 10.7 9.9 9.6 8.2 7.3 5.2 3.9 2.3 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Tech 8 - 12 0.3 1.4 3.1 4.9 7.1 9.7 10.4 10.9 11.5 9.7 8.7 7.2 5.8 3.9 2.6 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Martin 8 - 12 0.4 1.3 2.7 4.6 6.5 8.7 9.4 9.9 10.7 10.0 9.1 8.1 5.7 5.0 3.0 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lindenwood 8 - 12 0.4 1.2 2.6 4.3 6.7 8.5 9.3 10.6 10.7 10.2 8.7 8.0 6.5 4.7 3.3 2.2 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1
Western Illinois 7 - 13 0.6 2.5 4.5 6.9 8.7 10.2 10.9 11.0 10.0 9.2 7.6 6.1 4.5 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arkansas Little Rock 47.0% 36.9 8.2 1.6 0.3 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 16.2% 10.6 4.4 1.0 0.2
SIU Edwardsville 20.3% 13.9 5.1 1.2 0.2 0.0
Tennessee St. 7.2% 4.0 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
Morehead St. 8.3% 5.1 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
Southern Indiana 6.0% 3.6 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Eastern Illinois 4.3% 2.4 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
Tennessee Tech 2.5% 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1
Tennessee Martin 3.5% 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.1
Lindenwood 3.3% 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.1
Western Illinois 1.9% 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas Little Rock 32.4% 32.4% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.8 3.3 6.0 8.0 9.0 6.9 67.6 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 15.6% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 3.7 5.3 4.9 84.4 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 15.2% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.6 5.1 5.6 84.8 0.0%
Tennessee St. 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.4 4.0 90.3 0.0%
Morehead St. 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.4 4.0 92.8 0.0%
Southern Indiana 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.0 94.9 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 96.5 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 96.8 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.3 96.7 0.0%
Lindenwood 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.8 97.0 0.0%
Western Illinois 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 98.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas Little Rock 32.4% 3.3% 32.7% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 15.6% 2.3% 15.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 15.2% 2.8% 15.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 9.7% 2.0% 9.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 7.2% 2.3% 7.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 5.1% 1.8% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 3.5% 1.2% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 3.2% 1.2% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 3.3% 1.4% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 3.0% 1.1% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 1.8% 0.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 92.1% 1.0 7.9 85.3 6.8
2nd Round 3.2% 0.0 96.8 3.2
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0