IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Southern Indiana
Ohio Valley
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.4	#311
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.5	#195
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.4	#275

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.0	#322

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.1%	11.7%	4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.9	15.0	15.4

.500 or above	33.7%	68.4%	32.8%
.500 or above in Conference	47.4%	71.1%	46.7%
Conference Champion	6.0%	16.2%	5.7%
Last Place in Conference	10.6%	2.6%	10.8%

First Four	1.8%	2.1%	1.8%
First Round	4.7%	11.5%	4.5%
Second Round	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Butler (Away) - 2.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	1 - 5	1 - 6
Quad 4	11 - 10	12 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2025	66	@ Butler	L	63-83	3%
Nov 07, 2025	293	VMI	W	73-71	57%
Nov 12, 2025	294	@ South Dakota	L	80-84	36%
Nov 20, 2025	214	Incarnate Word	L	67-72	32%
Nov 26, 2025	261	@ Valparaiso	L	69-75	30%
Dec 03, 2025	282	@ Western Michigan	L	70-75	35%
Dec 07, 2025	173	@ Indiana St.	L	73-83	19%
Dec 18, 2025	162	Arkansas Little Rock	L	67-72	34%
Dec 20, 2025	291	Morehead St.	W	68-66	56%
Jan 01, 2026	240	@ SIU Edwardsville	L	65-72	28%
Jan 03, 2026	326	@ Lindenwood	L	71-73	46%
Jan 08, 2026	228	Southeast Missouri St.	L	70-72	45%
Jan 10, 2026	325	Tennessee Martin	W	72-68	65%
Jan 15, 2026	324	@ Tennessee Tech	L	71-73	45%
Jan 17, 2026	268	@ Tennessee St.	L	71-77	32%
Jan 22, 2026	321	Eastern Illinois	W	70-66	64%
Jan 24, 2026	343	Western Illinois	W	71-65	69%
Jan 29, 2026	326	Lindenwood	W	74-70	64%
Jan 31, 2026	240	SIU Edwardsville	L	68-69	46%
Feb 05, 2026	325	@ Tennessee Martin	L	69-71	45%
Feb 07, 2026	228	@ Southeast Missouri St.	L	67-75	26%
Feb 12, 2026	268	Tennessee St.	W	75-74	51%
Feb 14, 2026	324	Tennessee Tech	W	74-70	65%
Feb 19, 2026	343	@ Western Illinois	W	68-67	51%
Feb 21, 2026	321	@ Eastern Illinois	L	67-69	44%
Feb 24, 2026	291	@ Morehead St.	L	65-69	37%
Feb 28, 2026	162	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	64-75	19%
Projected Record						11 - 16	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	0.7	1.4	1.5	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.1		6.0	1st
2nd												0.1	0.8	2.2	2.8	1.6	0.7	0.2	0.0				8.3	2nd
3rd											0.2	1.2	3.3	3.2	1.5	0.3	0.0						9.7	3rd
4th										0.1	1.4	3.8	3.2	1.2	0.2	0.0							10.0	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.8	4.3	3.2	0.8	0.1									10.2	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.7	4.4	3.4	0.9	0.1										10.6	6th
7th							0.2	1.8	4.5	3.7	0.7	0.0											10.9	7th
8th						0.2	1.7	4.1	3.0	0.7	0.0												9.8	8th
9th				0.0	0.4	1.9	3.4	2.6	0.6	0.1													9.1	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.8	1.9	2.9	2.1	0.6	0.0														8.4	10th
11th	0.1	0.7	1.4	2.0	1.8	0.8	0.2																7.0	11th

Total	0.1	0.7	1.5	2.8	4.1	5.9	7.6	9.3	9.9	10.7	10.0	9.2	8.3	7.0	5.2	3.3	2.2	1.4	0.6	0.2	0.1			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2
18-2	92.9%	0.6		0.5	0.0
17-3	85.3%	1.2		1.0	0.2
16-4	67.8%	1.5		0.9	0.5	0.0
15-5	42.9%	1.4		0.7	0.6	0.1	0.0
14-6	14.0%	0.7		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-7	4.5%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-8	0.5%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	6.0%	6.0		3.6	1.8	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		66.7%	66.7%		13.2												0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
19-1	0.2%		30.8%	30.8%		15.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
18-2	0.6%		45.3%	45.3%		14.0													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.3
17-3	1.4%		33.8%	33.8%		14.3													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.9
16-4	2.2%		29.7%	29.7%		15.9														0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	1.5
15-5	3.3%		23.0%	23.0%		17.2															0.0	0.5	0.3	2.6
14-6	5.2%		15.3%	15.3%		17.7															0.0	0.3	0.6	4.4
13-7	7.0%		10.0%	10.0%		19.4															0.0	0.2	0.6	6.3
12-8	8.3%		7.7%	7.7%		17.4															0.0	0.1	0.6	7.6
11-9	9.2%		3.6%	3.6%		16.8																0.1	0.3	8.9
10-10	10.0%		2.3%	2.3%		17.9																0.0	0.2	9.8
9-11	10.7%		1.0%	1.0%		16.9																0.0	0.1	10.6
8-12	9.9%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	9.9
7-13	9.3%																							9.3
6-14	7.6%																							7.6
5-15	5.9%																							5.9
4-16	4.1%																							4.1
3-17	2.8%																							2.8
2-18	1.5%																							1.5
1-19	0.7%																							0.7
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		5.1%	5.1%	0.0%	16.9												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.7	1.7	3.0	94.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%