Preseason Rankings
Southern
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
134 Chattanooga 23.2%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 6 +1.8      +3.0 92 -1.2 208 66.5 218 0.0 1 0.0 1
142 Furman 21.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 12 - 6 +1.3      +1.9 116 -0.5 185 64.9 269 0.0 1 0.0 1
156 East Tennessee St. 15.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 +0.1      -0.4 174 +0.4 149 63.7 294 0.0 1 0.0 1
171 Samford 12.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 12 9 - 7 -0.9      +1.2 128 -2.1 248 75.5 24 0.0 1 0.0 1
205 Wofford 9.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 -2.5      -0.4 179 -2.1 241 61.8 335 0.0 1 0.0 1
232 UNC Greensboro 6.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 9 -3.9      -3.0 258 -0.9 195 61.6 338 0.0 1 0.0 1
246 Mercer 4.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 16 7 - 9 -4.6      -3.4 274 -1.1 204 75.7 23 0.0 1 0.0 1
262 Western Carolina 4.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 10 -5.4      -3.4 271 -2.1 242 74.5 41 0.0 1 0.0 1
293 VMI 2.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -7.3      -3.8 282 -3.6 291 69.6 131 0.0 1 0.0 1
342 The Citadel 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 21 4 - 14 -11.4      -5.8 329 -5.6 337 62.8 316 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Chattanooga 3.0 33.2 20.3 14.9 10.3 7.2 5.5 4.0 2.5 1.4 0.6
Furman 3.1 30.1 20.4 15.0 11.1 8.0 6.1 4.3 2.8 1.6 0.6
East Tennessee St. 3.6 21.8 18.9 15.3 12.3 10.0 7.9 5.7 4.5 2.6 1.2
Samford 4.8 8.4 11.8 13.6 14.7 13.5 12.2 10.3 8.1 5.0 2.4
Wofford 4.7 10.8 12.7 13.5 13.0 12.3 11.1 9.5 8.0 5.9 3.1
UNC Greensboro 5.3 7.7 9.6 11.3 11.6 12.3 12.2 11.7 10.1 8.5 5.1
Mercer 6.2 2.5 5.5 7.8 9.8 11.7 13.9 13.9 14.4 13.1 7.3
Western Carolina 6.1 4.3 6.1 8.2 9.5 11.8 13.4 13.1 13.5 12.5 7.6
VMI 6.9 2.3 3.7 5.6 7.1 9.4 11.4 12.6 15.9 17.7 14.2
The Citadel 8.4 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.5 4.0 6.1 8.9 13.6 22.1 40.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Chattanooga 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.8 5.1 6.9 9.2 11.5 11.8 12.6 11.6 9.3 7.8 4.2 1.4
Furman 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.8 4.1 5.3 8.0 9.9 11.6 11.9 12.7 10.8 9.0 6.4 3.7 1.1
East Tennessee St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.3 4.4 5.5 7.7 9.3 11.0 12.0 11.7 10.4 9.4 6.9 4.5 2.0 0.7
Samford 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 3.3 4.9 7.4 9.9 11.4 12.4 12.8 11.8 9.6 7.0 4.3 2.0 0.5
Wofford 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.4 5.5 6.9 9.0 10.5 11.7 11.7 10.5 9.1 7.6 5.2 3.1 1.7 0.6 0.1
UNC Greensboro 9 - 9 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.1 4.9 7.1 9.2 10.5 11.3 11.4 10.5 9.5 7.2 5.1 3.7 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1
Mercer 7 - 11 0.3 1.0 2.7 4.9 7.7 10.7 11.6 12.7 12.5 10.7 9.5 6.8 4.6 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1
Western Carolina 8 - 10 0.4 1.2 2.7 5.0 7.4 9.8 11.0 12.2 11.5 11.1 8.6 7.0 4.9 3.3 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0
VMI 7 - 11 0.9 2.8 5.6 8.2 10.4 11.6 12.4 11.2 10.5 8.3 6.7 4.6 3.2 1.8 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
The Citadel 4 - 14 4.7 10.2 13.5 15.1 13.9 12.6 10.2 6.9 5.0 3.4 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Chattanooga 33.2% 24.3 7.2 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Furman 30.1% 21.7 6.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
East Tennessee St. 21.8% 14.8 5.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Samford 8.4% 4.6 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Wofford 10.8% 6.7 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
UNC Greensboro 7.7% 4.6 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mercer 2.5% 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Carolina 4.3% 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
VMI 2.3% 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Chattanooga 23.2% 23.2% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.2 5.9 6.4 4.8 2.6 1.1 76.8 0.0%
Furman 21.0% 21.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.0 5.7 4.3 2.7 1.4 79.0 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.1 4.1 4.0 2.6 1.4 84.1 0.0%
Samford 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.4 3.1 2.3 1.5 87.1 0.0%
Wofford 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 2.5 2.1 1.5 90.9 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.3 93.8 0.0%
Mercer 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.2 95.3 0.0%
Western Carolina 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.3 96.0 0.0%
VMI 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 97.6 0.0%
The Citadel 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 99.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Chattanooga 23.2% 0.6% 23.2% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 21.0% 0.7% 21.1% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 15.9% 0.6% 16.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 12.9% 0.8% 12.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 9.1% 0.8% 9.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 6.2% 0.8% 6.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 4.7% 0.8% 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 4.0% 0.9% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 2.4% 0.6% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 97.4% 1.0 2.6 95.2 2.2
2nd Round 8.4% 0.1 91.6 8.4
Sweet Sixteen 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0