IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.4	#220
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.1	#182
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.4	#296

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+1.0	#135

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.9%	9.6%	4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.3	13.6	14.3

.500 or above	56.5%	71.8%	45.4%
.500 or above in Conference	64.1%	73.6%	57.2%
Conference Champion	7.1%	10.5%	4.6%
Last Place in Conference	4.5%	2.6%	5.9%

First Four	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%
First Round	6.9%	9.7%	4.9%
Second Round	0.4%	0.6%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Home) - 42.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	3 - 6	3 - 8
Quad 4	12 - 6	16 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2025	137	Arkansas St.	L	70-72	42%
Nov 11, 2025	172	@ Rice	L	64-69	31%
Nov 14, 2025	166	Abilene Christian	W	68-67	51%
Nov 18, 2025	186	@ Fresno St.	L	70-75	34%
Nov 21, 2025	244	@ Pepperdine	L	69-71	43%
Nov 29, 2025	190	@ Texas Arlington	L	67-71	35%
Dec 03, 2025	275	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	75-69	70%
Dec 07, 2025	347	Louisiana Monroe	W	74-62	85%
Dec 17, 2025	222	TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	68-65	60%
Dec 29, 2025	331	@ East Texas A&M	W	68-64	63%
Dec 31, 2025	257	@ Northwestern St.	L	63-64	45%
Jan 03, 2026	250	@ SE Louisiana	L	66-68	44%
Jan 05, 2026	93	@ McNeese St.	L	59-71	16%
Jan 10, 2026	288	Houston Christian	W	69-62	71%
Jan 12, 2026	214	Incarnate Word	W	68-65	59%
Jan 17, 2026	317	@ New Orleans	W	73-71	58%
Jan 19, 2026	241	@ Nicholls St.	L	67-69	43%
Jan 24, 2026	211	@ Lamar	L	63-66	39%
Jan 26, 2026	257	Northwestern St.	W	66-61	65%
Jan 31, 2026	250	SE Louisiana	W	69-65	64%
Feb 02, 2026	93	McNeese St.	L	62-68	31%
Feb 07, 2026	211	Lamar	W	66-63	58%
Feb 09, 2026	331	East Texas A&M	W	71-61	79%
Feb 14, 2026	275	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	L	71-72	49%
Feb 16, 2026	222	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	65-68	41%
Feb 21, 2026	241	Nicholls St.	W	70-66	63%
Feb 23, 2026	317	New Orleans	W	76-68	75%
Feb 28, 2026	288	@ Houston Christian	W	66-65	53%
Mar 02, 2026	214	@ Incarnate Word	L	65-68	40%
Projected Record						15 - 14	12 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-22	1-21	2-20	3-19	4-18	5-17	6-16	7-15	8-14	9-13	10-12	11-11	12-10	13-9	14-8	15-7	16-6	17-5	18-4	19-3	20-2	21-1	22-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.9	1.2	1.7	1.6	0.9	0.4	0.0		7.1	1st
2nd													0.0	0.2	1.2	2.7	3.4	2.9	1.6	0.5	0.1				12.6	2nd
3rd												0.0	0.4	1.7	3.9	3.3	1.9	0.6	0.1						12.0	3rd
4th											0.0	0.6	2.5	4.4	3.2	1.2	0.2	0.0							12.1	4th
5th										0.0	0.5	2.5	4.1	2.9	0.9	0.1									10.9	5th
6th									0.0	0.5	2.4	3.9	2.5	0.5	0.0										9.8	6th
7th								0.0	0.5	2.1	3.5	2.0	0.4	0.0											8.6	7th
8th							0.0	0.4	2.1	2.9	1.9	0.4	0.0												7.7	8th
9th						0.0	0.5	1.6	2.8	1.5	0.2														6.7	9th
10th					0.2	0.6	1.6	2.0	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0													5.6	10th
11th			0.0	0.2	0.7	1.1	1.2	0.6	0.1																4.0	11th
12th	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.8	0.6	0.2	0.0																	2.8	12th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.7	2.4	3.6	4.8	6.4	7.2	8.5	9.5	9.9	9.8	9.4	7.5	6.5	4.7	3.3	2.1	1.0	0.4	0.0			Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
22-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
21-1	100.0%	0.4		0.4	0.0
20-2	92.8%	0.9		0.8	0.1
19-3	78.3%	1.6		1.2	0.4	0.0
18-4	51.2%	1.7		1.0	0.7	0.1
17-5	25.5%	1.2		0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0
16-6	14.3%	0.9		0.3	0.4	0.1	0.1
15-7	2.7%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
14-8	0.6%	0.1		0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0
13-9	0.1%	0.0					0.0
12-10	0.0%
11-11	0.0%

Total	7.1%	7.1		4.3	2.3	0.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
22-0	0.0%		60.0%	60.0%		11.0											0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0
21-1	0.4%		43.3%	43.3%		11.9												0.1	0.1	0.0				0.2
20-2	1.0%		43.1%	43.1%		12.4												0.0	0.2	0.2	0.0			0.6
19-3	2.1%		38.2%	38.2%		12.9												0.0	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.0		1.3
18-4	3.3%		29.0%	29.0%		13.3													0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1		2.4
17-5	4.7%		22.9%	22.9%		13.7													0.0	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0	3.6
16-6	6.5%		18.3%	18.3%		14.5													0.0	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.1	5.3
15-7	7.5%		10.8%	10.8%		15.4													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	6.7
14-8	9.4%		7.1%	7.1%		16.1														0.1	0.1	0.4	0.2	8.7
13-9	9.8%		3.2%	3.2%		17.1														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	9.5
12-10	9.9%		2.4%	2.4%		16.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	9.7
11-11	9.5%		1.1%	1.1%		18.7																0.1	0.1	9.4
10-12	8.5%		0.6%	0.6%		15.7																0.0	0.0	8.4
9-13	7.2%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	7.2
8-14	6.4%																							6.4
7-15	4.8%																							4.8
6-16	3.6%																							3.6
5-17	2.4%																							2.4
4-18	1.7%																							1.7
3-19	0.9%																							0.9
2-20	0.4%																							0.4
1-21	0.1%																							0.1
0-22	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		6.9%	6.9%	0.0%	14.3											0.0	0.1	0.8	1.8	1.9	1.6	0.8	93.1		0.0%