Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic 10
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
36 Saint Louis 86.3%   10   27 - 5 15 - 3 +13.8      +7.5 44 +6.3 35 76.2 21 +12.8 43 +13.1 2
47 Virginia Commonwealth 100.0%   11   27 - 7 15 - 3 +11.7      +7.1 50 +4.6 61 71.0 107 +13.0 40 +13.9 1
79 Dayton 2.9%   23 - 11 12 - 6 +7.6      +1.0 141 +6.6 34 67.3 214 +9.7 64 +8.8 4
85 George Washington 0.0%   17 - 15 8 - 10 +6.8      +5.7 64 +1.1 138 72.2 80 +2.1 128 +1.0 9
99 George Mason 0.0%   22 - 9 11 - 7 +5.3      +2.9 96 +2.4 111 61.4 344 +6.8 87 +6.6 5
109 Saint Joseph's 0.0%   20 - 11 13 - 5 +4.0      -1.1 198 +5.1 51 69.5 148 +5.8 96 +8.9 3
116 Davidson 0.0%   18 - 13 10 - 8 +3.2      0.0 162 +3.2 86 61.1 346 +4.2 109 +4.5 6
121 Duquesne 0.0%   16 - 15 9 - 9 +2.7      +1.2 134 +1.5 131 71.2 105 +2.6 123 +4.2 7
130 St. Bonaventure 0.0%   16 - 17 4 - 14 +2.0      +3.2 94 -1.2 215 67.5 203 +0.8 144 -4.5 14
136 Rhode Island 0.0%   16 - 16 7 - 11 +1.5      -2.6 241 +4.1 72 65.4 263 +1.0 139 +0.4 10
142 Richmond 0.0%   14 - 17 5 - 13 +1.0      +1.8 122 -0.7 198 68.8 168 -1.2 184 -1.9 12
153 Fordham 0.0%   14 - 15 8 - 10 +0.5      -3.2 256 +3.6 78 62.4 333 -1.8 194 +2.0 8
216 La Salle 0.0%   8 - 23 5 - 13 -3.2      -2.1 222 -1.1 211 65.2 271 -3.1 219 -1.3 11
247 Loyola Chicago 0.0%   9 - 24 4 - 14 -5.0      -3.7 270 -1.3 219 65.2 268 -5.2 248 -2.8 13


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Mar 12 99 George Mason 57 130 St. Bonaventure 63   
Thu, Mar 12 116 Davidson 64 247 Loyola Chicago 59   
Thu, Mar 12 121 Duquesne 67 136 Rhode Island 61   
Thu, Mar 12 153 Fordham 62 85 George Washington 66   
Fri, Mar 13 79 Dayton 68 130 St. Bonaventure 63   
Fri, Mar 13 121 Duquesne 66 47 Virginia Commonwealth 71   
Fri, Mar 13 85 George Washington 81 36 Saint Louis 88   
Fri, Mar 13 116 Davidson 58 109 Saint Joseph's 70   
Sat, Mar 14 79 Dayton 70 36 Saint Louis 69   
Sat, Mar 14 109 Saint Joseph's 64 47 Virginia Commonwealth 77   
Sun, Mar 15 79 Dayton 62 47 Virginia Commonwealth 70   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Saint Louis 1.0 100.0
Virginia Commonwealth 1.0 100.0
Saint Joseph's 3.0 100.0
Dayton 4.0 100.0
George Mason 5.0 100.0
Davidson 6.0 100.0
Duquesne 7.0 100.0
George Washington 8.0 100.0
Fordham 8.0 100.0
Rhode Island 10.0 100.0
La Salle 11.0 100.0
Richmond 11.0 100.0
Loyola Chicago 13.0 100.0
St. Bonaventure 13.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Saint Louis 15 - 3 27 - 5 100.0
Virginia Commonwealth 15 - 3 27 - 7 100.0
Saint Joseph's 13 - 5 20 - 11 100.0
Dayton 12 - 6 23 - 11 100.0
George Mason 11 - 7 22 - 9 100.0
Davidson 10 - 8 18 - 13 100.0
Duquesne 9 - 9 16 - 15 100.0
George Washington 8 - 10 17 - 15 100.0
Fordham 8 - 10 14 - 15 100.0
Rhode Island 7 - 11 16 - 16 100.0
La Salle 5 - 13 8 - 23 100.0
Richmond 5 - 13 14 - 17 100.0
Loyola Chicago 4 - 14 9 - 24 100.0
St. Bonaventure 4 - 14 16 - 17 100.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Saint Louis 100.0% 100.0
Virginia Commonwealth 100.0% 100.0
Saint Joseph's
Dayton
George Mason
Davidson
Duquesne
George Washington
Fordham
Rhode Island
La Salle
Richmond
Loyola Chicago
St. Bonaventure


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Saint Louis 86.3% 0.0% 86.3% 10   0.0 0.2 2.1 14.8 44.5 24.6 0.1 13.7 86.3%
Virginia Commonwealth 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 11   0.0 0.0 0.6 6.2 37.0 55.4 0.8
Dayton 2.9% 0.0% 2.9% 0.0 2.1 0.8 97.1 2.9%
George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
George Mason 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Davidson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Richmond 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.9 13.2 84.4 2.4
1st Round 100.0% 1.8 19.9 79.0 1.1
2nd Round 56.7% 0.7 43.3 45.0 11.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 14.5% 0.2 85.5 14.0 0.5
Elite Eight 4.2% 0.0 95.8 4.1 0.0
Final Four 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.2
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Saint Louis 86.3% 15.5% 79.9% 34.7% 8.1% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 33.5% 6.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Dayton 2.9% 2.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%