Pre-tourney Rankings
Missouri Valley
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
46 Indiana St. 27.0%   27 - 6 16 - 3 27 - 6 16 - 3 +10.8      +8.2 23 +2.6 97 74.7 40 +11.6 41 +12.3 1
53 Drake 100.0%   11   27 - 6 15 - 4 27 - 7 15 - 4 +10.0      +6.5 41 +3.5 80 68.8 162 +11.2 46 +10.5 2
67 Bradley 0.0%   21 - 11 13 - 6 21 - 11 13 - 6 +8.0      +3.9 82 +4.0 67 65.8 259 +6.1 96 +6.8 3
111 Northern Iowa 0.0%   18 - 14 12 - 7 18 - 14 12 - 7 +3.7      +2.0 121 +1.7 126 66.5 241 +4.6 108 +5.4 4
114 Belmont 0.0%   19 - 13 11 - 8 19 - 13 11 - 8 +3.5      +1.9 125 +1.6 129 76.0 29 +3.8 113 +3.8 6
125 Southern Illinois 0.0%   18 - 13 11 - 8 18 - 13 11 - 8 +2.7      +2.0 122 +0.7 147 62.3 334 +2.4 128 +3.9 5
149 Missouri St. 0.0%   17 - 16 7 - 12 17 - 16 7 - 12 +1.1      -1.0 210 +2.1 114 69.0 159 +1.6 136 -0.7 9
161 Murray St. 0.0%   11 - 20 8 - 11 11 - 20 8 - 11 +0.2      +0.6 159 -0.4 188 62.8 330 -2.6 215 +0.1 7
182 Illinois St. 0.0%   14 - 17 8 - 11 14 - 17 8 - 11 -1.0      -2.1 234 +1.1 140 61.6 341 -1.2 186 -0.2 8
205 Illinois-Chicago 0.0%   11 - 21 4 - 15 11 - 21 4 - 15 -2.3      -3.8 277 +1.4 133 69.9 131 -3.4 230 -5.9 11
224 Evansville 0.0%   15 - 17 6 - 13 15 - 17 6 - 13 -3.2      -2.4 247 -0.8 199 70.9 100 -0.1 165 -2.8 10
299 Valparaiso 0.0%   6 - 25 3 - 16 6 - 25 3 - 16 -7.7      -3.8 275 -3.9 290 69.0 158 -9.2 314 -7.6 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Indiana St. 1.0 100.0
Drake 2.0 100.0
Bradley 3.0 100.0
Northern Iowa 4.0 100.0
Belmont 5.0 100.0
Southern Illinois 5.0 100.0
Missouri St. 9.0 100.0
Murray St. 7.0 100.0
Illinois St. 7.0 100.0
Illinois-Chicago 11.0 100.0
Evansville 10.0 100.0
Valparaiso 12.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Indiana St. 16 - 4 100.0
Drake 15 - 5 100.0
Bradley 13 - 7 100.0
Northern Iowa 12 - 8 100.0
Belmont 11 - 9 100.0
Southern Illinois 11 - 9 100.0
Missouri St. 7 - 13 100.0
Murray St. 8 - 12 100.0
Illinois St. 8 - 12 100.0
Illinois-Chicago 4 - 16 100.0
Evansville 6 - 14 100.0
Valparaiso 3 - 17 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Indiana St. 100.0% 100.0
Drake
Bradley
Northern Iowa
Belmont
Southern Illinois
Missouri St.
Murray St.
Illinois St.
Illinois-Chicago
Evansville
Valparaiso


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Indiana St. 27.0% 0.0% 27.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 7.6 17.0 0.1 73.0 27.0%
Drake 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 11   0.1 0.4 4.8 18.2 44.9 31.6 0.1
Bradley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Northern Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Belmont 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Murray St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Indiana St. 27.0% 21.9% 15.8% 7.0% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 41.5% 9.9% 3.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Bradley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.3 73.0 27.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.2 84.2 15.8
2nd Round 45.7% 0.5 54.3 42.8 2.9
Sweet Sixteen 11.7% 0.1 88.3 11.5 0.2
Elite Eight 3.5% 0.0 96.5 3.5 0.0
Final Four 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9 0.0
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0