Pre-tourney Rankings
Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.8#46
Expected Predictive Rating+11.6#41
Pace74.7#40
Improvement-0.4#203

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#23
First Shot+10.0#7
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#289
Layup/Dunks+2.6#86
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#352
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.6#4
Freethrows+0.8#116
Improvement-0.4#205

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#97
First Shot+1.8#117
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#98
Layups/Dunks+1.4#125
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#66
Freethrows+1.6#67
Improvement+0.0#174
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 27.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 10.5 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% n/a n/a
Conference Champion 100.0% n/a n/a
Last Place in Conference 0.0% n/a n/a
First Four21.9% n/a n/a
First Round15.8% n/a n/a
Second Round7.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen1.9% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.6% n/a n/a
Final Four0.1% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 24 - 15 - 5
Quad 310 - 015 - 5
Quad 412 - 127 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 13   @ Alabama L 80-102 23%     0 - 1 -3.3 +6.7 -8.8
  Nov 14, 2023 361   IUPUI W 96-57 99%     1 - 1 +19.0 +13.8 +5.0
  Nov 21, 2023 218   Rice W 103-88 90%     2 - 1 +12.1 +13.4 -3.2
  Nov 22, 2023 196   Pepperdine W 90-82 88%     3 - 1 +6.0 +11.0 -5.4
  Nov 24, 2023 140   Toledo W 76-74 81%     4 - 1 +3.7 -4.5 +8.1
  Nov 28, 2023 125   Southern Illinois W 77-48 84%     5 - 1 +29.1 +6.4 +23.8
  Dec 02, 2023 67   @ Bradley W 85-77 51%     6 - 1 1 - 0 +18.6 +12.3 +5.8
  Dec 05, 2023 306   @ Northern Illinois W 90-67 93%     7 - 1 +17.4 +11.6 +5.4
  Dec 09, 2023 331   Southern Indiana W 98-54 98%     8 - 1 +30.0 +10.2 +15.7
  Dec 16, 2023 263   Ball St. W 83-72 92%     9 - 1 +5.8 +6.1 -0.5
  Dec 19, 2023 293   Tennessee St. W 90-69 96%     10 - 1 +11.3 +9.8 +0.6
  Dec 30, 2023 18   @ Michigan St. L 75-87 27%     10 - 2 +5.1 +11.5 -6.3
  Jan 03, 2024 224   Evansville W 87-73 93%     11 - 2 2 - 0 +8.2 +5.6 +1.6
  Jan 07, 2024 111   @ Northern Iowa W 77-66 67%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +17.3 +7.8 +9.6
  Jan 10, 2024 53   @ Drake L 78-89 43%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +1.6 +8.5 -6.7
  Jan 13, 2024 114   Belmont W 94-64 82%     13 - 3 4 - 1 +30.9 +18.4 +11.5
  Jan 16, 2024 149   Missouri St. W 88-66 87%     14 - 3 5 - 1 +20.5 +29.3 -5.5
  Jan 21, 2024 161   @ Murray St. W 72-63 78%     15 - 3 6 - 1 +11.8 +1.4 +10.6
  Jan 24, 2024 205   @ Illinois-Chicago W 89-83 84%     16 - 3 7 - 1 +6.2 +16.7 -10.6
  Jan 27, 2024 67   Bradley W 95-86 OT 70%     17 - 3 8 - 1 +14.4 +22.1 -8.0
  Jan 31, 2024 114   @ Belmont W 78-72 68%     18 - 3 9 - 1 +12.1 +10.8 +1.5
  Feb 03, 2024 53   Drake W 75-67 63%     19 - 3 10 - 1 +15.4 -1.2 +16.0
  Feb 07, 2024 299   Valparaiso W 101-61 96%     20 - 3 11 - 1 +29.7 +13.4 +12.5
  Feb 10, 2024 149   @ Missouri St. W 73-71 75%     21 - 3 12 - 1 +5.7 +2.8 +2.9
  Feb 13, 2024 182   Illinois St. L 67-80 90%     21 - 4 12 - 2 -16.6 -7.2 -9.1
  Feb 17, 2024 125   @ Southern Illinois L 69-74 70%     21 - 5 12 - 3 +0.3 -3.3 +3.8
  Feb 21, 2024 299   @ Valparaiso W 83-64 92%     22 - 5 13 - 3 +13.9 +10.7 +3.9
  Feb 24, 2024 205   Illinois-Chicago W 88-73 92%     23 - 5 14 - 3 +10.1 +7.5 +1.2
  Feb 28, 2024 224   @ Evansville W 85-67 86%     24 - 5 15 - 3 +17.4 +17.0 +1.3
  Mar 03, 2024 161   Murray St. W 89-77 89%     25 - 5 16 - 3 +9.6 +18.8 -8.6
  Mar 08, 2024 149   Missouri St. W 75-59 82%     26 - 5 +17.1 +3.4 +13.5
  Mar 09, 2024 111   Northern Iowa W 94-72 75%     27 - 5 +25.7 +25.4 +0.9
  Mar 10, 2024 53   Drake L 80-84 53%     27 - 6 +6.0 +9.4 -3.4
Projected Record 27 - 6 16 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 100.0    100.0
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 27.0% 27.0% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 7.6 17.0 0.1 73.0 27.0%
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 27.0% 0.0% 27.0% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 7.6 17.0 0.1 73.0 27.0%