Pre-tourney Rankings
Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2025-26
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -1.7 190
Results Rating -2.1 197
Consistency 0.20 357
Pace 60.3 359
Improvement +5.1 34

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 231 D+ C C+ C- C+
Defense C 145 B- C+ D- B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 256 C+ 60% 128 -0.9 213
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 285 D+ 35% 273 -1.9 276
Three Pointers 47% 57 F+ 29% 344 -0.2 187
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 148 D+ -3.2 292
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 275
Second Chance C 30.3% 183 C 1.02 186 C 0.31 172
Opponents' Steals B 8.1% 58
Other Turnovers C- 7.7% 248
Turnovers C+ 15.8% 120
Freethrows C+ 0.32 133 F 64% 365 C- 0.20 242
Total Offense C- -2.3 231

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D- 36% 339 B+ 7.7% 28
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 289 C- 5.9% 251
Three Pointers C 83% 213 C 0.9% 184
Total D 49% 312 B+ 4.2% 37


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 254 B 54% 63 -2.8 84
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 201 C+ 37% 140 -0.7 132
Three Pointers 44% 88 C+ 33% 160 +1.2 252
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 160 B- -2.1 96
1st FG Attempt B- 0.98 109
Second Chance C 30.1% 176 B- 0.96 74 C+ 0.29 117
Turnovers from Steals D- 7.1% 334
Other Turnovers D+ 6.7% 254
Turnovers D- 13.8% 338
Freethrows B- 0.27 89 B 70% 52 B- 0.19 67
Total Defense C +0.6 145

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 47% 158 B- 13.6% 78
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 273 D- 1.7% 335
Three Pointers D 89% 331 C- 0.6% 240
Total D+ 59% 264 C 5.5% 180

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.5 353 17.5 210
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 271 0.15 102
Consistency 0.14 297 0.17 363
Improvement +2.8 61 +2.3 85

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 191 190 190
Results Rating Rank 197 197 197
Conference Record 11 - 7 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 02 - 1
Quad 32 - 64 - 7
Quad 413 - 617 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 269 @Central Michigan L 66 - 82 56% -12  0% 0 - 1 F -19 D- -7 F C B+ F -14 F C C
 Sun, Nov 9 348 NC Central W 76 - 54 92% +16  97% 1 - 1 B- +5 C- -2 F A+ A+ A +9 A A- C-
 Tue, Nov 11 24 @Ohio St. L 53 - 75 4% -6  42% 1 - 2 C- -3 D- -8 D- B+ B B- +2 A+ D- F
 Sun, Nov 16 277 @Dartmouth W 85 - 77 58% +5  85% 2 - 2 C+ +4 B- +5 A- C F C -1 F+ C B+
 Fri, Nov 21 172 Charlotte W 65 - 63 57% -2  27% 3 - 2 C -2 C +0 B- B- D+ C -1 A+ F C
 Mon, Nov 24 242 Elon L 53 - 88 72% -17  1% 3 - 3 F -43 F -21 F F B- F -27 C+ F F
 Wed, Nov 26 189 @Mercer L 67 - 75 38% +3  72% 3 - 4 D+ -7 C- -1 F+ B- A D -6 B F D+
 Sun, Nov 30 236 @UNC Asheville L 55 - 67 50% -8  0% 3 - 5 D- -14 F -16 F D+ C C+ +1 B F B+
 Thu, Dec 11 235 @East Carolina W 67 - 54 50% +9  96% 4 - 5 B +11 D+ -3 C+ B F A+ +16 A A- F+
 Sun, Dec 14 92 High Point W 86 - 78 OT 24% +2  69% 5 - 5 B+ +14 B- +5 A- F A A- +8 A- A+ D-
 Thu, Dec 18 239 Coastal Carolina W 67 - 49 72% +4  53% 6 - 5 1 - 0 B +10 D -4 A F F A+ +16 A+ B- D
 Sat, Dec 20 304 Georgia St. L 63 - 70 83% -4  16% 6 - 6 1 - 1 F -19 F -14 D F B+ D -5 F A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 31 243 @Old Dominion W 81 - 73 51% +13  95% 7 - 6 2 - 1 B- +6 B+ +9 C A+ D C- -2 F+ A- F+
 Sat, Jan 3 202 @Marshall L 81 - 88 41% -8  3% 7 - 7 2 - 2 D+ -6 C+ +3 C+ B- C+ F+ -9 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 304 @Georgia St. W 52 - 50 66% -2  10% 8 - 7 3 - 2 C- -4 F -17 F C- D- A+ +14 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 239 @Coastal Carolina L 62 - 67 50% +5  78% 8 - 8 3 - 3 D+ -7 C+ +2 F+ B+ A F+ -10 F C F+
 Thu, Jan 15 209 James Madison W 80 - 65 65% +11  99% 9 - 8 4 - 3 B +9 A+ +16 A+ A+ B D+ -4 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 243 Old Dominion L 73 - 75 73% -10  0% 9 - 9 4 - 4 D -10 C- -1 D+ B+ A- F+ -9 F C+ C-
 Thu, Jan 22 300 Louisiana W 72 - 58 82% +1  44% 10 - 9 5 - 4 C+ +2 B +6 A+ C- F+ C -1 A D- F
 Fri, Jan 23 353 Louisiana Monroe W 59 - 43 92% +8  80% 11 - 9 6 - 4 C -2 F -26 F F C- A+ +25 A+ A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 29 213 @Southern Miss W 70 - 63 44% +2  68% 12 - 9 7 - 4 B- +7 C -0 D+ F A- A- +8 B+ A- C-
 Sat, Jan 31 143 @Troy W 66 - 44 30% +9  90% 13 - 9 8 - 4 A+ +26 B- +5 B+ F F+ A+ +25 A+ A+ D+
 Wed, Feb 4 206 South Alabama W 65 - 57 64% +3  79% 14 - 9 9 - 4 C+ +3 C +0 D- B- A+ B +4 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 245 Eastern Michigan W 65 - 60 73% +3  78% 15 - 9 C- -3 D -6 D+ F A B- +3 A+ F F
 Wed, Feb 11 230 @Georgia Southern W 81 - 65 48% +8  98% 16 - 9 10 - 4 A- +15 B +7 C- C A- A +9 B- A+ B
 Sat, Feb 14 209 @James Madison L 58 - 69 42% -6  5% 16 - 10 10 - 5 D -11 F+ -10 F A F+ C- -2 B B- F
 Thu, Feb 19 202 Marshall L 93 - 94 63% +6  86% 16 - 11 10 - 6 D+ -6 A+ +17 A- A+ A+ F -23 F C F
 Sat, Feb 21 230 Georgia Southern W 89 - 74 70% +3  70% 17 - 11 11 - 6 B- +8 B +6 B C B- C+ +2 C A B-
 Fri, Feb 27 233 @Texas St. L 57 - 60 49% +2  67% 17 - 12 11 - 7 C- -4 F+ -9 F B- D- B +4 D A+ F+
 Sat, Mar 7 213 Southern Miss L 73 - 86 55% -8  25% 17 - 13 F+ -16 C- -1 D- B- B+ F -15 C+ F F+
Totals 17 - 13 11 - 7 -2 C- -2 F+ D+ C+ C +1 F+ F C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C+ D+ F+ D+ 36% 29% 47% C+ D+ C C C C+ C+ F C- C B C+ C+ B- 36% 20% 44% C B- C B- C+ D- B- B B-
1.05 60% 35% 29% -3 0 0.96 30% 1.0 .31 16% .32 64% .20 1.08 54% 37% 33% -2 0 0.98 30% 1.0 .29 14% .27 70% .22
Nov
3		 Central Michigan D- F F F+ F 33% 17% 50% D+ F C C C B+ A+ F C+ F D F F F 49% 16% 35% F F F A+ C C D- F F
1.02 38% 25% 29% -13 0 0.77 36% 1.2 .43 14% .52 48% .25 1.26 63% 50% 47% +11 +1 1.27 45% 0.7 .31 18% .32 82% .26
Nov
9		 NC Central C- C- F F F 33% 15% 52% C- F D A+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ A A+ A+ A- A+ 44% 13% 44% F A A+ C- A- C- F+ F F
1.18 60% 29% 25% -8 0 0.87 33% 1.6 .55 12% .52 72% .37 0.84 38% 17% 29% -15 +1 0.75 19% 1.0 .19 17% .38 90% .34
Nov
11		 Ohio St. D- F F D+ D- 24% 29% 47% C- D- D- A+ B+ B F F F B- D A- A+ A+ 21% 23% 55% B A+ C F D- F F C+ F
0.86 42% 29% 30% -9 -2 0.80 21% 1.7 .35 15% .15 63% .10 1.22 70% 36% 27% -4 -2 0.91 33% 1.3 .44 7% .56 75% .42
Nov
16		 Dartmouth B- B+ A+ D+ B+ 55% 14% 31% B+ A- B+ F C F A- C+ A- C B+ A+ F F+ 29% 7% 64% D- F+ D+ B C B+ F C+ F
1.18 68% 57% 31% +7 +2 1.20 35% 0.8 .29 18% .36 71% .25 1.07 50% 0% 44% +5 +1 1.14 26% 1.0 .26 22% .53 73% .39
Nov
21		 Charlotte C C- B+ B B- 35% 18% 48% C+ B- C B+ B- D+ A+ F+ A+ C B A+ A+ A+ 49% 9% 42% F+ A+ F D F C A A A+
1.15 57% 43% 37% +3 0 1.08 30% 1.2 .37 16% .48 65% .32 1.11 55% 25% 26% -8 +2 0.91 42% 1.0 .42 18% .24 64% .15
Nov
24		 Elon F D+ F F F 30% 9% 61% B- F F D F B- A+ F C F D F A+ C 37% 16% 47% B+ C+ F F F F C F D
0.87 54% 25% 26% -10 +1 0.84 24% 1.0 .24 15% .44 48% .21 1.44 63% 63% 25% -1 +1 1.02 50% 1.6 .81 10% .31 82% .25
Nov
26		 Mercer C- A+ D F F+ 38% 28% 34% D F+ C+ B B- A D+ F F D A+ C+ F B- 17% 30% 53% A+ B F F+ F D+ C- F F+
1.08 79% 36% 12% -4 -1 0.92 35% 1.1 .38 13% .24 54% .13 1.21 25% 36% 40% -2 -3 0.94 41% 1.1 .46 14% .36 84% .30
Nov
30		 UNC Asheville F A+ D F D- 21% 30% 49% F F F A D+ C D F F C+ F+ F A+ A- 29% 29% 41% D B F+ F F B+ F F F
0.85 80% 36% 22% -5 -2 0.87 21% 1.1 .24 16% .28 47% .13 1.04 67% 50% 18% -4 -2 0.90 36% 1.3 .46 20% .52 81% .43
Dec
11		 East Carolina D+ A- C F C 46% 17% 38% B+ C+ A- D+ B F C- F D A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 43% 22% 35% D- A B- A A- F+ A+ A+ A+
1.03 68% 38% 28% +1 +1 1.06 39% 1.1 .42 25% .24 67% .16 0.83 41% 45% 17% -15 0 0.73 31% 0.8 .26 14% .21 50% .11
Dec
14		 High Point B- F A+ A+ A 36% 13% 51% C A- F C- F A A+ C+ A A- B A A+ 37% 0% 63% F+ A- D+ A+ A+ D- D A+ B+
1.14 42% 57% 48% +8 +1 1.19 21% 1.0 .21 16% .41 73% .30 1.03 55% 27% -8 +3 0.92 33% 0.5 .16 11% .40 56% .22
Dec
18		 Coastal Carolina D C+ C+ A+ A 40% 27% 33% B A D- F F F A+ F A- A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 33% 24% 43% D A+ C A- B- D F+ A+ B
1.03 56% 42% 47% +6 -1 1.13 22% 0.7 .16 18% .42 64% .26 0.75 41% 42% 18% -15 -1 0.71 27% 0.8 .20 14% .32 50% .16
Dec
20		 Georgia St. F B- F C D- 42% 16% 42% C+ D F F F B+ A+ F B- D F B+ F+ F 30% 28% 41% C- F C+ A+ A+ A- F B F+
0.93 62% 0% 33% -5 +1 0.94 19% 0.4 .08 13% .41 58% .24 1.04 79% 31% 37% +6 -2 1.11 26% 0.5 .13 21% .37 75% .28
Dec
31		 Old Dominion B+ A D- F C 46% 22% 33% C+ C A A+ A+ D A+ F B+ C- F A+ F F+ 33% 21% 46% D F+ C A+ A- F+ F A+ C-
1.22 71% 30% 27% +1 0 1.04 42% 1.5 .65 17% .51 61% .31 1.10 71% 18% 42% +5 0 1.12 25% 0.7 .18 12% .38 59% .22
Jan
3		 Marshall C+ A- A D- B- 33% 27% 41% D+ C+ C- A B- C+ A+ F B F+ C+ F+ F F 34% 26% 40% C F A+ A+ A+ F F C+ F
1.15 69% 46% 30% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.2 .38 16% .52 55% .29 1.25 59% 46% 55% +15 -1 1.30 21% 0.8 .18 11% .40 72% .29
Jan
8		 Georgia St. F D- F F F 40% 13% 47% B- F B+ F C- D- F F F A+ A+ B A+ A+ 30% 44% 26% A A+ A F C- F B+ A+ A+
0.84 50% 0% 24% -15 +1 0.73 40% 0.8 .31 19% .20 60% .12 0.81 33% 32% 15% -17 -4 0.60 20% 1.5 .30 11% .24 62% .15
Jan
10		 Coastal Carolina C+ D+ F F+ F+ 29% 29% 43% C F+ B B+ B+ A B- B+ B F+ F A- F F 35% 28% 37% C- F B- D+ C F+ B A+ A
1.08 50% 29% 29% -8 -2 0.82 32% 1.2 .38 7% .32 76% .24 1.16 69% 31% 47% +9 -1 1.17 24% 1.0 .24 12% .22 55% .12
Jan
15		 James Madison A+ C A+ A+ A+ 38% 4% 58% A A+ A- A+ A+ B F F F D+ A+ A+ F A+ 35% 13% 52% C- A+ F+ A- C- F C C+ C
1.36 58% 50% 45% +10 +2 1.26 38% 1.3 .50 10% .15 63% .09 1.11 24% 17% 40% -10 +1 0.83 35% 0.9 .33 10% .30 69% .21
Jan
17		 Old Dominion C- B- F F D- 53% 10% 37% A D+ D A+ B+ A- A F C F+ D F F F 24% 27% 49% B- F A F C+ C- F A+ D-
1.12 65% 20% 22% -4 +2 0.98 27% 1.5 .41 11% .43 60% .26 1.16 64% 50% 45% +13 -2 1.24 18% 1.4 .25 15% .42 61% .26
Jan
22		 Louisiana B C A+ A+ A+ 25% 13% 63% D A+ B+ F C- F+ D- F F C D+ B A+ A 24% 30% 46% C- A B+ F D- F A- F C+
1.22 60% 80% 48% +19 0 1.40 38% 0.8 .31 22% .32 60% .19 0.98 58% 33% 22% -10 -2 0.78 22% 1.4 .30 10% .17 89% .15
Jan
23		 Louisiana Monroe F C+ A+ F F 39% 5% 56% B+ F C- F F C- F A F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 47% 9% 43% F A+ B A+ A+ C+ C+ C+ B-
0.85 64% 67% 19% -9 +2 0.88 34% 0.1 .04 16% .15 78% .12 0.62 20% 20% 22% -28 +2 0.51 20% 0.5 .10 17% .30 71% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Southern Miss C F F A+ D 48% 15% 37% B D+ D F F A- A+ B+ A+ A- B C+ A+ B+ 39% 35% 27% B- B+ D- A+ A- C- F B+ F+
1.05 41% 29% 47% -2 +1 1.00 23% 0.5 .11 14% .50 76% .38 0.95 53% 35% 23% -7 -2 0.84 36% 0.7 .24 18% .48 69% .33
Jan
31		 Troy B- A+ C B A 15% 15% 70% D B+ C- F F F+ F A+ D- A+ C+ B A+ A+ 37% 12% 51% B- A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F A+
1.12 86% 43% 36% +7 -1 1.15 30% 0.7 .20 20% .17 88% .15 0.75 56% 33% 16% -15 +1 0.73 22% 0.5 .11 15% .08 100% .08
Feb
4		 South Alabama C C+ A+ F F+ 18% 4% 78% C+ D- C- A B- A+ A+ F A- B C A+ F C 33% 29% 38% A+ C+ A A+ A+ F A- D B
1.11 63% 100% 26% -6 +1 0.91 29% 1.3 .37 10% .34 67% .23 0.98 56% 21% 39% -3 -1 0.94 17% 0.5 .08 9% .24 69% .17
Feb
7		 Eastern Michigan D C- A+ F D- 56% 10% 33% A+ D+ C+ F F A A+ F B B- A+ D A+ A+ 30% 37% 33% A A+ B F F F A+ A- A+
1.01 56% 60% 19% -7 +3 0.94 32% 0.4 .12 11% .49 54% .26 0.93 44% 40% 17% -12 -3 0.72 23% 1.9 .44 9% .10 67% .07
Feb
11		 Georgia Southern B B- D D- D+ 49% 7% 44% A- C- C+ C- C A- A+ D A+ A B A+ D+ B 42% 9% 49% D B- D- A+ A+ B A+ A A+
1.22 64% 33% 30% 0 +3 1.07 37% 1.0 .37 15% .50 71% .36 0.98 50% 0% 36% -5 +2 0.95 32% 0.5 .15 18% .17 67% .11
Feb
14		 James Madison F+ C- C- F F 21% 26% 53% F F B A+ A F+ A+ F B- C- A B D- B 38% 20% 42% B- B C- A- B- F C A- C+
0.95 56% 36% 13% -18 -2 0.63 35% 1.3 .45 16% .47 58% .27 1.13 47% 30% 38% -3 0 0.96 30% 0.9 .27 8% .30 65% .20
Feb
19		 Marshall A+ C A+ B+ B 35% 5% 60% A A- B A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F D+ F F F 32% 25% 43% C- F B F+ C F F C+ F
1.40 60% 50% 38% +5 +2 1.16 39% 1.6 .64 11% .67 70% .47 1.41 65% 62% 48% +17 -1 1.34 27% 1.3 .35 8% .34 71% .24
Feb
21		 Georgia Southern B A+ F C- B 40% 13% 47% C B C- B- C B- A+ B A+ C+ D+ A+ D C 28% 11% 61% B- C B- A+ A B- B+ F C+
1.25 83% 17% 33% +7 +1 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 17% .63 78% .49 1.04 60% 0% 36% -1 0 1.00 24% 0.7 .16 17% .27 88% .24
Feb
27		 Texas St. F+ C B- F F 36% 11% 53% C+ F A+ F B- D- A+ F C+ B B- F F+ F+ 40% 43% 17% A D A+ A+ A+ F+ C- A+ B
0.94 59% 40% 20% -11 +1 0.83 48% 0.7 .31 21% .46 55% .25 0.99 53% 50% 38% +4 -3 1.04 21% 0.7 .14 15% .29 60% .17
Mar
7		 Southern Miss C- A+ F F D- 33% 29% 38% F+ D- C+ C+ B- B+ A+ B+ A+ F C- B C- C 31% 45% 24% A+ C+ F F F F+ F C+ F+
1.06 75% 29% 22% -4 -1 0.92 31% 1.1 .33 15% .50 76% .38 1.25 60% 32% 33% -2 -4 0.90 45% 1.6 .74 15% .44 73% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 100.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%